Bandwagon effects in British elections, 1885–1910

This article investigates possible bandwagons in actual elections rather than the usual opinion poll data. Until 1918, British general elections were staggered over a fortnight or more. We use the eight general elections between 1885 and 1910 to investigate whether there was a general bandwagon or underdog effect as the election progressed. We find that any bandwagon effect was in favor of the party which eventually won the election, not the party gaining seats compared with last time. We also find that a typical election featured an initial bandwagon effect which peaked about halfway through the election and then declined. Its decline appears to be due both to declining enthusiasm for the leading party and to later polls occurring in places where voters were less prone to get on a bandwagon in the first place. The weakening of the bandwagon was correlated to distance of the constituency from London, although it revived to some extent in Scotland.     

An experimental model of tool mark striations in soft tissues produced by serrated blades

Stab wounds produced by serrated blades are generally indistinguishable from stab wounds produced by non-serrated blades, except when visible tool mark striations are left on severed cartilage. We explored the possibility that similar striations may be produced on the soft tissues of internal organs. Loin of beef, bovine kidney, and pig heart, liver, and aorta were each stabbed 20 times with a coarsely serrated blade. The walls of the stab tracks were exposed and documented by photography, cast with dental impression material, and the casts photographed. Striations were identified in all of the tissues in every stabbing, but their consistency and quality varied between tissues. Striations were most easily seen in liver, heart, and aorta. Tool mark striations in soft tissues other than cartilage have not been described in homicidal stabbings, likely because they have not been sought. We suggest that the walls of stab wound tracks should be exposed, and tissue striations should be sought as a means of identifying the weapon as having a serrated blade.     

Analysis of the stages of change model of drug and alcohol treatment readiness among prisoners

A classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was applied to data for 237 male participants (M = 31.93 years, SD = 7.64) in a prison-based substance abuse treatment program to study the integrity of the Stages of Change model of treatment readiness. Using the Stages of Change Questionnaire (STOCQ), participants were assigned to Contemplation (102), Action (118), or Maintenance (17) groups. A CART analysis then examined differences in the overall group profiles on the basis of scores on the Psychological Inventory of Criminal Thinking, the Situational Confidence Questionnaire, and the Carlson Psychological Survey. The assumption of discrete stages of change was not supported. Alternative models are suggested: one based on states of change and one on personality characteristics. A focus on equal attention to both cognitive and behavioral aspects of substance abuse treatment readiness is suggested.     

Stable isotope ratios as a tool in microbial forensics--part 3. Effect of culturing on agar-containing growth media

Stable isotope ratios of hydrogen and oxygen in microbes have been shown to be functions of the corresponding isotope ratios of the water with which the culture medium was prepared, and thus to contain a potential geographic signal. Water can evaporate from agar (solid) media during culturing, changing its isotope ratios. Here we describe the effect of drying on the isotope ratios of water extracted from agar media and the H and O stable isotope ratios ratios of Bacillus subtilis spores cultured on agar. The delta2H vs delta18O relationship of water in Petri dish agar was surprisingly constant during evaporation regardless of the ambient relative humidity, making it possible to calculate the approximate isotope ratios of the original water, even in significantly evaporated agar. The H stable isotope ratios of spores cultured on agar remained relatively unchanged as the agar dried, but the O ratio became significantly enriched.