Beyond soft balancing: small states and coalition-building in the ICC and climate negotiations

The role of small states has been largely neglected in research on the process and outcome of multilateral negotiations. Even though these states may be active in the agenda-setting processes or display a specific engagement in certain thematic aspects of negotiations, in the end game the outcome of negotiations has been perceived to be dependent on the bargaining between major powers. However, small states also have strategies at their disposal to compensate for these weaknesses. Two principal ones come to mind, prioritization or niche diplomacy, and coalition-building to join forces with like-minded states in order to draw on their resources, expertise and manpower. In the article, we compare two cases of small state coalitions in multilateral negotiations, namely the Like Minded (LM) group in the negotiations that led to the establishment of the International Criminal Court (ICC), and the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in United Nations climate negotiations. While the two coalitions resort to similar strategies, they have not been comparably successful. We will show that the ability to translate discursive power into measurable effects on outcomes ultimately depends on the institutional setting of the negotiations and the nature of the issue that coalitions are tackling.     

Working with Misspecified Regression Models

Objectives

Conventional statistical modeling in criminology assumes proper model specification. Very strong and unrebutted criticisms have existed for decades. Some respond that although the criticisms are correct, there is for observational data no alternative. In this paper, we provide an alternative.

Methods

We draw on work in econometrics and statistics from several decades ago, updated with the most recent thinking to provide a way to properly work with misspecified models.

Results

We show how asymptotically, unbiased regression estimates can be obtained along with valid standard errors. Conventional statistical inference can follow.

Conclusions

If one is prepared to work with explicit approximations of a “true” model, defensible analyses can be obtained. The alternative is working with models about which all of the usual criticisms hold.

     

Do a Law’s Policy Implications Affect Beliefs About Its Constitutionality? An Experimental Test

Although a substantial empirical literature has found associations between judges' political orientation and their judicial decisions, the nature of the relationship between policy preferences and constitutional reasoning remains unclear. In this experimental study, law students were asked to determine the constitutionality of a hypothetical law, where the policy implications of the law were manipulated while holding all legal evidence constant. The data indicate that, even with an incentive to select the ruling best supported by the legal evidence, liberal participants were more likely to overturn laws that decreased taxes than laws that increased taxes. The opposite pattern held for conservatives. The experimental manipulation significantly affected even those participants who believed their policy preferences had no influence on their constitutional decisions.     

Engaging community residents to prevent violence

The Institute for Community Peace has conducted two demonstration projects to determine whether communities can be engaged to prevent violence as it is identified and defined locally and link primary prevention across multiple forms of violence. The projects present evidence that community engagement can effect primary violence prevention; the violence prevention field has much to learn about developing and sustaining strategies to address interrelated violence problems; and the violence prevention field and community residents are in vastly different places with respect to primary violence prevention.     

Issues related to defining and measuring violence against women: response to Kilpatrick

This paper asserts that although there is considerable agreement in the U.S. and internationally about the importance of uniform terminology and measurement related to violence against women, we need a strategy for choosing standardized definitions and measures. Responding to Kilpatrick's comments at the October 2003 national research conference on violence against women, the author stresses the importance of developing and using uniform terminology related to violence against women, and discusses the lack of a formal mechanism to achieve uniformity of definitions and measurement. Uncertainty about the impact of context on survey findings and the lack of agreement about the optimal scope of measurement are discussed. The author also comments on some difficulties associated with implementing Kilpatrick's proposed modifications to existing measures of rape and sexual assault.     

Prevalence and Predictors of Sexual Risks Among Homeless Youth

This study examined prevalence of sexual risks among homeless adolescents and described factors associated with those risks. Community-based outreach methods were used successfully to access this difficult-to-reach population. The sample included 203 homeless youth aged 15–22 recruited from community sites. Questionnaire items addressed demographics, sexual behaviors, alcohol/drug use, STI history and testing, and pregnancy history. In cross-sectional analysis, 58.7% of males and 75.6% of females reported recent sexual intercourse. Of those, one third of males and half of the females used no barrier method with at least one partner. Both gender (female) and race/ethnicity (non-Black) were associated with having intercourse without a barrier contraceptive method. Over one fifth reported a history of survival sex or receiving money, drugs, clothing, shelter, or food for sex. These results show disturbingly high rates of a number of sexual risks, reinforcing the need for targeted interventions with this highly vulnerable population.