Comparison of the elemental composition of office document paper: evidence in a homicide case

Fraudulent substitution of a page within a multiple page document such as a will or business contract, the counterfeit manufacture of paper banknotes, and linking ransom or extortion notes have all been the focus of criminal investigations at one time or another. In a recent homicide investigation, document examiners were requested to compare a threatening letter received by a business partner of the deceased with paper samples seized under warrant from a suspect's house. Through a quantitative elemental analysis of the concentrations of nine elements (Na, Mg, Al, Mn, Sr, Y, Ba, La, and Ce) within the questioned and specimen documents, determined by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (ICP-MS), it was concluded that (i) the paper of the threatening letter originated from a different source to that of the paper seized from the suspect's house and (ii) all six pages of paper seized from the suspect's house originated from the same source. This discrimination of paper is presented as both a statistical t-test analysis (99.9% confidence limit) as well as construction of an elemental fingerprint for individual replicates within the questioned and specimen sample populations. This is the first reported use of the comparison of the elemental composition of document paper, determined by ICP-MS, to assist in a criminal investigation.     

A Unified Theory and Test of Extended Immediate Deterrence

We present a unified theory and test of extended immediate deterrence—unified in the sense that we employ our theoretical deterrence model as our statistical model in the empirical analysis. The theoretical model is a straightforward formalization of the deterrence logic in Huth (1988) and Huth and Russett (1984) , coupled with private information concerning utilities. Our statistical analysis suggests that the attacker and defender's decisions are influenced by the balance of forces, nuclear weapons, defender-protege military alliances, arms transfers, and trade, as well as the regime types of those involved. Many of these findings contradict previous research by Huth (1988) and Huth and Russett (1988) . We find that many of the variables involved in the deterrence calculus are nonmonotonically linked to the probability of deterrence success or war. We illustrate the results with case studies of the Soviet-Japanese dispute over Manchukuo (1937–1938) and the Berlin Blockade (1948).     

Sexual and nonsexual offenders with intellectual and learning disabilities: a comparison of characteristics, referral patterns, and outcome

This article reports an evaluation of a community intellectual disability offender service over the period from 1990 to 2001. Men who committed sex offenses or sexually abusive incidents (n = 106) and men who committed other types of offenses and serious incidents (n = 78) are compared on personal characteristics, referral sources, forensic details, and outcome up to 7 years after referral. The cohorts are older than one would expect from the criminology literature, and, at about 33%, the incidence of mental illness is consistent with some previous studies. A greater proportion of sex offenders had criminal justice involvement and a formal disposal from court. Fire raising was not overly represented as an offense. There was a higher rate of reoffending in the nonsexual cohort, which persisted up to 7 years. Investigating only reoffenders, there was a considerable amount of harm reduction recorded up to 7 years, statistically significant up to 5 years following initial referral.     

Lineup Identification by Children: Effects of Clothing Bias

This study examined effects of clothing cues on children's identification accuracy from lineups. Four- to 14-year-olds (n = 228) saw 12 video clips of individuals, each wearing a distinctly colored shirt. After watching each clip children were presented with a target-present or target-absent photo lineup. Three clothing conditions were included. In 2 conditions all lineup members wore the same colored shirt; in the third, biased condition, the shirt color of only one individual matched that seen in the preceding clip (the target in target-present trials and the replacement in target-absent trials). Correct identifications of the target in target-present trials were most frequent in the biased condition, whereas in target-absent trials the biased condition led to more false identifications of the target replacement. Older children were more accurate than younger children, both in choosing the target from target-present lineups and rejecting target-absent lineups. These findings suggest that a simple clothing cue such as shirt color can have a significant impact on children's lineup identification accuracy.     

Construct validity,reliability and predictive validity of the dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) in offenders with intellectual disability

Background. There have been a number of developments in the assessment of dynamic risk in the criminological literature. The dynamic risk assessment and management system (DRAMS) has been developed to facilitate the measurement of dynamic factors of risk for offenders with intellectual disability. Method. The study was designed to assess the construct validity, reliability and predictive utility of the DRAMS in 23 male forensic patients in a high secure setting. Predictions were made against independently collected incident data. Concurrent validity was assessed against the Ward Anger Rating Scale (WARS). Results. A reformulation of the individual section variables according to convergent and discriminant correlational analysis revealed Cronbach's alpha levels of >.8 for all sections apart from mood (alpha .750) and items retained to facilitate clinical information (alpha ?.017). Two hundred pairs of WARS and DRAMS assessments revealed orderly sectional correlations. The sections of mood, antisocial behaviour, and intolerance/agreeableness predicted incidents with a medium effect size as did total DRAMS score. There were highly significant differences between assessments taken 1 or 2 days prior to an incident and control assessments conducted at least 7 days from an incident. Conclusions. The reformulated DRAMS has good construct and concurrent validity. It appears to be a reliable assessment tool and informs on risk levels relating to stable and acute proximal factors. It appears as an important addition to the utility of risk assessments for this population.     

Reproducing a Fit Citizenry: Dependency, Eugenics, and the Law of Marriage in the United States, 1860-1920

Between the Gilded Age and the Progressive Era, American state legislatures enacted a series of new laws that delineated a class of citizens who were deemed ineligible to participate in the institution of marriage. Scholars have characterized this development as evidence that lawmakers had lost faith in a laissez-faire approach to nuptial governance, and thus transformed marriage into an object of public regulation. This essay argues that behind the ostensible nuptial privatism of the mid-nineteenth century lay a self-conscious policy of judicial governance. Judges invoked the language of nuptial privacy and the common law of contract strategically to advance their vision of moral and economic discipline. The new marital prohibitions thus represented, the essay argues, not the expansion of the state's police power into the previously private realm of domestic relations, but rather a critical transformation in how nuptial reformers and lawmakers understood the relationship between marriage and the well-being of the polity.
Fueled by growing concerns about pauperism, the racial character of the urban proletariat, and the collapse of the economically independent single-male-breadwinner household, the changing form of nuptial governance signaled a thoroughgoing intellectual and strategic reorientation from an understanding of marriage as forming economically and morally viable households – the fundamental units of society – to an understanding of marriage as a largely procreative institution, as the literal source of the citizenry. This reconceptualization of marriage underwrote a strategy of nuptial governance that mobilized marriage as a strategy in the state's regulation of social reproduction.     

The INSPIRE Framework: How Public Administrators Can Increase Compliance with Written Requests Using Behavioral Techniques

Public administrators rely on written communications to send information to citizens and stakeholders, and they are among the heaviest users of the postal service. Behavioral science research has identified several techniques that public administrators can use to increase compliance with written requests and, in turn, increase effectiveness. Currently, however, many written communications from government bodies are not written in a manner that utilizes these techniques. It remains an ongoing challenge for public administrators to identify, understand, and use these techniques in the written communications sent by their organizations. This article presents a framework capturing seven prominent techniques in a simple mnemonic—INSPIRE—that is already being used by several government bodies in Australia. It also provides practical examples of how to use each technique and demonstrates that using these techniques could result in large aggregate improvements in effectiveness and socially desirable outcomes of public administrators' written communications.