The terrorists' dilemmas: Some implicit rules of the game 1

Abstract

Knowledge of certain dilemmas faced by terrorists may serve to narrow the options available to the opposing parties and aid in varying government response to terrorist acts. Such dilemmas are the identification with violence, the problem of attacking or seeking a negotiated incident, choice of level of terror, maintenance of one's objectivity within a group characterized by conformity, and retaining one's identity as a historic victim.     

What Happens the Morning After? The Costs and Benefits of Expanding Access to Emergency Contraception

Emergency contraception (EC) can prevent pregnancy after sex, but only if taken within 72 hours of intercourse. Over the past 15 years, access to EC has been expanded at both the state and federal level. This paper studies the impact of those policies. We find that expanded access to EC has had no statistically significant effect on birth or abortion rates. Expansions of access, however, have changed the venue in which the drug is obtained, shifting its provision from hospital emergency departments to pharmacies. We find evidence that this shift may have led to a decrease in reports of sexual assault.     

Two-Year Reliability of the Propensity for Abusiveness Scale

The Propensity for Abusiveness Scale (PAS; Dutton [1995a] J. Fam. Violence 10[2]: 203–221) has been shown to correlate with both physical and psychological abuse in a variety of samples including gay men, assaultive males, and male and female college students (Clift, 2001; Dutton et al., 2001). For the current study, 27 male and 37 female university students completed the PAS during the 1998–1999 and the 2000–2001 school years. A 2-year test–retest reliability coefficient of r = .851 was found for women and a reliability coefficient of r = .629 was found for men. The combined sample had a reliability coefficient of r = .774. Moderate test–retest reliability coefficients were also found for each of the subscales.     

A comparison of adjustment methods to test the robustness of an STR DNA database comprised of 24 European populations

An aim of the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes (ENFSI) is to produce a DNA database of second generation multiplex (SGM) STR profiles that is representative of the resident cosmopolitan populations. To achieve this, data were collected from 24 different populations. All of the data were combined to form one database of 5700 profiles from which allele proportions were calculated. The robustness of this combined European database was tested by estimating parameter d for every DNA profile, where d=log(10)(Pm(c)/Pm(E)) Pm(c) is the match probability of the profile calculated from its cognate database and Pm(E) is the match probability of the combined European database. Overall there was a small tendency for Pm(c)>Pm(E) primarily because of sampling bias. This bias was removed by the simple expediency of applying an adjustment factor to the calculation of Pm(E). These were selected from the Balding size bias correction, the Balding and Nichols Fst correction, a minimum allele proportion (between 0.01 and 0.02), an upper bound of a 95% confidence interval (CI) and a lower bound on the genotype match probability. It was demonstrated that a single European database is a feasible proposition. A combination of different adjustment methods can be used to ensure that the result is conservative relative to the cognate database, and their effect measured by parameter d.     

Differential effects of high‐quality child care

In policy research a frequent aim is to estimate treatment effects separately by subgroups. This endeavor becomes a methodological challenge when the subgroups are defined by post‐treatment, rather than pre‐treatment, variables because if analyses are performed in the same way as with pre‐treatment variables, causal interpretations are no longer valid. The authors illustrate a new approach to this challenge within the context of the Infant Health and Development Program, a multisite randomized study that provided at‐risk children with intensive, center‐based child care. This strategy is used to examine the differential causal effects of access to high‐quality child care for children who would otherwise have participated in one of three child care options: no non‐maternal care, home‐based non‐maternal care, and center‐based care. Results of this study indicate that children participating in the first two types of care would have gained the most from high‐quality center‐based care and, moreover, would have more consistently retained the bulk of these positive benefits over time. These results may have implications for policy, particularly with regard to the debate about the potential implications of providing universal child care. © 2002 by the Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.     

Pubertal Effects on Adjustment in Girls: Moving from Demonstrating Effects to Identifying Pathways

The present investigation examines mediated pathways from pubertal development to changes in depressive affect and aggression. Participants were 100 white girls who were between the ages of 10 and 14 (M=12.13, SD=.80); girls were from well-educated, middle- to upper-middle class families, and attended private schools in a major northeastern urban area. Three aspects of pubertal development were examined: (a) estradiol categories tapping gonadal maturation; (b) dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEAS) levels indicating adrenal maturation; and (c) pubertal timing (early vs. other). Three potential mediators were also examined: emotional arousal, attention difficulties, and negative life events. Tests of mediated models indicated that early pubertal timing predicted higher emotional arousal which subsequently predicted increased depressive affect. Negative life events, and possibly attention difficulties, mediated the associations of both estradiol category and DHEAS with aggression. These findings highlight the potential for more intensive investigation of gonadal and adrenal processes in explaining affective changes at puberty.