The influence of police interventions and alternative income sources on the dynamic process of choosing crime as a career

This paper demonstrates how a rational process of choice may be influenced by both deterrence forces and economic opportunities. This choice is modeled by a dynamic (Markov) process which captures self-sorting by youth among the categories of innocents, desisters, and persisters. in crime. A key to the results is the introduction of the perceived probability of punishment and its influence on the sorting process. The analysis shows how this force and the availability, or lack of, economic opportunities or income sources modify transition probabilities. The long-run consequences will be a larger subpopulation of individuals who have experimented with crime but subsequently revert to crime-free behavior and a smaller subpopulation of individuals who commit a greater share of crime. Empirical evidence is based on data from the New Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys.     

Policy reforms in sub-Saharan Africa: Conditions for establishing a dialogue

Third World debt continues to be a critical and intractable issue. A particularly interesting aspect of the story is the effort by external donors and lenders to promote specific policy changes in exchange for assistance in dealing with indebtedness and promoting economic development. This study looks at the interactions between donors and decision-makers in sub-Saharan African countries, an area where donors rather than private banks play a dominant role. Donors have been learning from the uneven response to the reforms and are attempting to tailor the reforms somewhat to different contexts and to encourage more consultations. To succeed in these efforts they need to reexamine their view of analysis as a purely technocratic exercise among experts. They can learn from recent changes in the policy sciences, here called an interactive approach to policy analysis. It makes three assumptions: policy relevant knowledge includes time and space information and is diffused; participants can reason together and learn from each other; and there is a need for procedures and institutions to facilitate interaction and learning. The study explores the assumptions implicit in donor actions and proposes that an interactive approach, with its more open-ended perspective on knowledge, can stimulate greater dialogue and expand the kinds of information that are fed into the process. Louise G. White is associate professor in the department of public affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax VA 22030–4444. Her research is in the general areas of development management and policy analysis. Her most recent books areCreating Opportunities for Change: Approaches for Managing Development Programs, andPolitical Analysis: Technique and Practice. She has recently published articles inPublic Administration Review andWorld Development.     

Risk assessment in offenders with mental disorders: relative efficacy of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables

Following the meta-analysis by Bonta, Law, and Hanson, (1998) this study examined the ability of personal demographic, criminal history, and clinical variables to predict reoffending in offenders in the United Kingdom who had mental disorders. The efficacy of each variable in predicting rate of general reoffending and violent reoffending was investigated. Age on admission, number of days hospitalized, and number of previous offenses were the most effective variables in predicting re-offending, with number of previous offenses being the strongest predictor. Clinical diagnosis was not predictive of reoffending when the variance attributable to these other predictors was controlled for. None of the variables were able to discriminate between general offenders and violent offenders indicating that the same variables predict both types of reoffending. The results showed that reconviction in offenders with mental disorders can be predicted using the same criminogenic variables that are predictive in offenders without mental disorders.     

A study of mutation rates and the characterisation of intermediate, null and duplicated alleles for 13 Y chromosome STRs

Previously reported Y chromosome STR haplotype databases for three UK population groups, plus additionally analysed samples, have been scrutinised for the presence of non-standard (intermediate, null and duplicated) alleles. These alleles have been characterised by sequencing, some showing changes in the repeat structure, and the frequencies reported. Mutation rates for each of the 13 STRs have been calculated when analysis of father-son pairs has been possible. An example illustrating the use of non-standard alleles in a large family tree is outlined.     

Legal Professionalism and International Criminal Proceedings

In criminal practice before international tribunals, the boundariesbetween lack of professionalism (serious misconduct) by prosecutionand taking an erroneous position on the law (procedural error)are particularly blurred, if only because the backgrounds andexpectations of all persons involved in the proceedings areprofoundly different and the playing field is still insufficientlydefined. This is illustrated by the Furundija case brought beforean International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia(ICTY) Trial Chamber in 1998. In that case the Chamber heldthat the prosecution, by failing to disclose a document to thedefence, had both engaged in serious misconduct and made a seriousprocedural error. Instead, the Lord Advocate and the Crown Agentof Scotland, later consulted by the ICTY Prosecutor, concludedthat there had only been an error of judgment. National caselaw, for instance that of Canadian courts, makes it clear thata good faith decision not to disclose a document, made in theexercise of professional judgment on a difficult and novel issue,may constitute an error of judgment, but certainly does notamount to misconduct.