Expressive and Strategic Behavior in Legislative Elections in Argentina

In this paper I study strategic voting behavior in the Argentine Senate election for the City of Buenos Aires in 2013. I estimate and analyze the voter transition matrix between the primary and general elections using a Bayesian hierarchical model for ecological inference, utilizing a rich data set of ballot box data. The results show that strategic behavior is not widespread among the electorate in Buenos Aires. In particular, at least 75 % of voters who had the opportunity to avoid vote wasting by behaving strategically did not. I also find high levels of vote wasting when analyzing other provinces during the same election cycle. These results suggest that these electorates might be composed of a mixture of voters with strategic and expressive motivations, where the expressive factions dominate.     

Expressing Uncertainty in Dental Age Estimation: A Comparison between Two Methods of Calculating the “Average” Standard Deviation

The expression of uncertainty is defined by the standard deviation and is usually expressed in multiples of the standard deviation (±1sd, ±2sd, and ±3sd). The objective was to use weighting of the sd calculation by the number or count of subjects for each tooth development stage. A comparison shows the difference between the range of uncertainty using the unweighted sd and the weighted sd. The range of uncertainty related to Dental Age Estimation is statistically significantly greater (p < 0.001) for the weighted sd compared to the unweighted sd. It is concluded that the number of subjects for each Tooth Development Stage in the Reference Data set should be included in the calculation for a single Dental Age Estimation using the Simple Average Method when presenting the uncertainty associated with the point estimate of the “mean” for Dental Age Estimation of a single subject of unknown age.     

Dental Age Estimation: Pattern Recognition of Root Canal Widths of Mandibular Molars. A Novel Mandibular Maturity Marker at the 18‐Year Threshold

The final stage of third molar development is used to assign a subject to above the 18‐year threshold. Some subjects exhibiting this final stage are less than 18 years. Radiographs from 1000 females and 1000 males age 16.00–25.99 years were examined. Each half‐year age band comprised 50 females and 50 males. Three categories of root canal widths (RCW) of the LL6, LL7, and LL8 [FDI 36, 37, and 38] were defined. Reproducibility was achieved by re‐assessing the same subjects 12 months apart. For females, the minimum value for RCW‐A was 16.33 years, RCW‐B 17.23 years, and RCW‐C 18.45 years. For males, the minimum values were RCW‐A 17.16 years, RCW‐B 18.29 years, and RCW‐C 18.16 years. The presence of RCW‐C in a female, and the presence of RCW‐B or RCW‐C in a male is compelling evidence that the subject is above the 18‐year threshold.     

State Politics and the Right to Counsel: A Comparative Analysis

One of the most significant recent developments in the study of crime and justice is the emergence of theoretical explanations for the dramatic changes in criminal justice policy over the past few decades. These theoretical accounts address not only highly visible developments, such as the meteoric rise in incarceration rates, but also less-conspicuous shifts in due process and civil liberties, and they do so by attributing more-repressive policies to the emergence of a political culture that has substantially redefined crime and justice. This article focuses on an important due process issue, the legal representation of indigent defendants in criminal courts. We describe the state of indigent defense policy, particularly structure and funding, across the states in 2002, and analyze variation on two dimensions where states may exercise discretion: the extent to which states assume responsibility for funding services (rather than relying on local governments), and the generosity with which these programs are funded overall. We test hypotheses that link funding for services with the ideology of state political leadership, public values about tolerance and race relations, and states' public welfare policy climates. We find little support for the prediction that a welfare climate shapes more progressive indigent defense policies. However, the results suggest that the racial threat hypothesis helps account for spending on indigent defense, and that Republican control of the statehouse results in the perpetuation of local responsibility for program funding. Normative literature on indigent defense suggests that the patterns we observe may have important consequences for the quality of indigent defense services across states. Further, the findings reported here suggest that the politics of the punitive turn, as it has played out across the states, may be responsible not only for shifts in crime control policy, but for due process policy as well.     

Multilevel policy from the municipal perspective: A pan‐Canadian survey

Building on in‐depth case studies and extensive theory‐building by Canadian multilevel governance scholars, this article identifies and describes multilevel policy involvement by federal, provincial, municipal, private, and NGO actors in three policy phases and eighteen policy domains that specifically involve local governments in Canada. Drawing from an original pan‐Canadian survey of municipal mayors and councillors, we show that municipal politicians see multilevel policy involvement as remarkably prevalent across many policy domains. Using an original measure of multilevel policy involvement, we identify the policy domains in which policy involvement is most concentrated or fragmented and then describe the correlates of this measure. Multilevel policy involvement, we argue, is more clearly associated with policy phase and policy domain than with municipal population or region. We conclude with a discussion of implications for future research.     

Does Spending More Get More? Health Care Delivery and Fiscal Implications From a Medicare Fee Bump

While salient features of the Affordable Care Act include insurance expansions and private coverage reforms, various other provisions are embedded within the law. We focus on a temporary 10 percent fee increase for primary care visits supplied to publicly insured (Medicare) beneficiaries. Using administrative and survey data, we assess the price shock's impact on service volume, physician labor supply, and quality of care. Primary care physicians (PCPs) in independent practices demonstrate, at most, a marginal 2 percent increase in new patient visits while horizontally and vertically integrated PCPs show no change. Both PCP organizational types witness declines in established patient visits, on average, but there is marked heterogeneity: established patient visits increase by 1 to 2 percent among PCPs with fewer Medicare claims in the pre‐period. The Medicare fee bump did not observably impact other labor supply outcomes and quality of care margins. We estimate that the policy introduced a $1.5 billion transfer from taxpayers to providers during the initiative's first three years.     

Mortal Beings: How Evolution Helps Us Understand Illness and Aging

In these two books, biological anthropologist Richard Bribiescas and developmental psychologist David Geary address sex differences in health and aging from the perspectives of evolutionary biology and psychology. Bribiescas explores the aging process in men and describes why and how men age differently from women, with earlier mortality and greater susceptibility to the diseases of aging. Geary provides a comprehensive survey of the animal and human literature on sex differences in vulnerabilities to the effects of stress on psychological and physical traits. Both authors focus on the role of Darwinian sexual selection as the source of different health outcomes for men and women. These works make valuable contributions to our understanding of why humans get sick and age and argue convincingly for approaching medical research with a greater sensitivity to the role played by biological sex in poor health.     

Disloyal Brokers and Weak Parties

This article shows that the disloyalty of political brokers causes party fragility. Lacking distinctive brands, organization, and activists to mobilize individuals, parties “hire” local notables to broker votes among a local, nonpartisan constituency. However, brokers may be unreliable agents, regularly changing political allegiances in search of better returns for their brokerage among the module of voters they control. This free agency from brokers hinders durable party–voter linkages and results in electorally vulnerable parties. Measuring how brokers influence parties is empirically complex, but taking advantage of the fact that in Brazil these agents are also local candidates, this article demonstrates the negative electoral consequences of brokers' free agency on party performance. Natural experiments and an unexpected, temporary institutional reform that discouraged disloyalty for brokers demonstrate this relationship.