Policy design and domestic support for international bailouts

Financial bailouts for ailing Eurozone countries face deep and widespread opposition among voters in donor countries, casting major doubts over the political feasibility of further assistance efforts. What is the nature of the opposition and under what conditions can governments obtain broader political support for funding such large‐scale, international transfers? This question is addressed by distinguishing theoretically between ‘fundamental’ and ‘contingent’ attitudes. Whereas the former entail complete rejection or embrace of a policy, the latter depend on the specific features of the policy and could shift if those features are altered. Combining unique data from an original survey in Germany – the largest donor country – together with an experiment that varies salient policy dimensions, the analysis indicates that less than a quarter of the public exhibits fundamental opposition to the bailouts. Testing a set of theories on contingent attitudes, particular sensitivity is found to the burden‐sharing and cost dimensions of the bailouts. The results imply that the choice of specific features of a rescue package has important consequences for building domestic support for international assistance efforts.     

‘Consensus’ participation: an example for protected areas planning

This article forwards the argument that combining institutional and people participation is fundamental to the pursuit of ‘sustainability’. A generalized model of participation is proposed based on building consensus and preventing/resolving conflict between all stakeholders who might be influential in, or affected by, the effect of major developments on a society's goals for sustainability. This ‘consensus’ participation model seeks to overcome problems relating to the exclusive nature of community-based ‘popular’ participation (such as Participatory Rural Appraisal), and the narrow economic nature of current ‘stakeholder’ participation. The model is founded upon two ideas: that to achieve consensus requires stakeholders to negotiate and reach agreement collaboratively, and that certain stakeholders (e.g. the disenfranchised poor and entrenched government bureaucracies) are often polarized from a capability to contribute effectively to this process. In a manner similar to the introduction of methodologies to guide environmental management in project planning (environmental impact assessment, land use evaluation etc.), it is suggested that methodological frameworks are needed to aid the process of integrating ‘consensus’ participation within major development initiatives (large-scale projects, sectoral programmes, strategic land use or resource management planning, and regional and national policy formulation). Based on research in Zambia, an example of a consensus-orientated participation framework is presented, designed to guide preparation of strategic management plans for protected areas. The example is used to draw out some of the benefits of ‘consensus’ participation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

LOW SELF‐CONTROL,ROUTINE ACTIVITIES,AND FRAUD VICTIMIZATION*

Recent research has used both routine activity/lifestyle frameworks and self‐control theory to explain victimization. Thus far, combined tests of these theories have focused on offending populations and street crime victimization. Whether these frameworks also explain exposure to and likelihood of nonviolent victimization (e.g., fraud) in general‐population samples remains an open empirical question. Building on prior work, we assess the independent effects of routine consumer activities (i.e., remote purchasing) and low self‐control on the likelihood of fraud targeting and victimization. Using a representative sample of 922 adults from a statewide survey in Florida, the results confirm our expectation that remote‐purchasing activities increase consumers' risk of being targeted for fraud. Low self‐control has no effect on whether consumers are targeted, but it does significantly increase the likelihood of fraud victimization.     

Pioneering New Politics or Rearranging the Deckchairs? The 2007 National Assembly for Wales Election and Results

This article analyses the campaign, results and outcome of the 2007 elections to the National Assembly for Wales. It discusses the constitutional and legislative framework of devolution in Wales, the election campaign and opinion polls. There is extensive analysis of the election results, the performance of each of the main and some of the smaller parties. Shifts in representation of women and ethnic minority AMs and departures and new arrivals are covered. There is discussion of changes in electoral turnout and the proportionality of the outcome, which is low and has declined since 2003. The final substantive section deals with the complexities of the post-election coalition negotiations, while events in Wales are placed in the context of international experiences around the formation of coalition governments     

SOME MISLEADING CONCEPTIONS IN SENTENCING RESEARCH

Most studies of sentencing practices in both adult and juvenile courts have compared the relative power to predict dispositions of “legal” variables, such as the seriousness of offense and previous arrest record, and “extralegal” variables, such as race and social class. It is suggested that this is a misleading model for research on the decision-making process in juvenile courts. Instead, results presented here indicate that the juvenile court uses a model of substantive decision-making oriented toward the character and social environment of offenders. Social background variables are found to be more important determinants of disposition than either “legal” or “extralegal” variables.