Counterterrorism strategies in the lab

We conduct experiments to test the collective action dilemmas associated with defensive and proactive counterterror strategies. Defensive policies are associated with creating public ??bads' (e.g., a commons) whereas proactive policies are akin to the voluntary provision of public goods. When combined, the inefficiency of collective action is exacerbated, resulting in a situation known as a Prisoner??s Dilemma squared (PD²). Deterministic versus probabilistic equivalent versions of the associated externalities are compared within a laboratory setting. Experimental results reveal that the collective action problem associated with counterterror strategies is deepened in uncertain environments, and is indeed a robust regularity that is not easily overcome; as individuals gain more experience, they become even more self-interested.     

Forecasting the 2010 general election using aggregate local election data

The paper presents a revised method for estimating national vote shares using aggregate data from local government by-elections. The model was originally developed to forecast the annual outcome of local elections but was adapted in time to provide an accurate forecast of Labour’s landslide victory at the 1997 general election. However, over the past decade the changing pattern of party competition which has seen parties becoming more selective about which elections to contest has led to more elections being excluded from the modelling because they failed to meet the exacting criteria that all three major parties, Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrats, had contested both the by-election and the previous main election, normally held in May. Relaxing these criteria, although increasing the number of available cases would adversely affect the forecast, over- or under-estimating party votes. Instead, the revised method overcomes the problem of differential competition by estimating vote shares for parties that contest one but not both elections. A further innovation is the calculation of a weighted moving quarterly average which takes account of the number of days elapsed between the by-election date and the date of forecast. Using the new method we provide estimates for likely party shares for the 2010 general election.     

我国的区域经济发展与行政区划的调整

造成我国区域发展不平衡的一个重要原因是行政区与经济区分布的不一致,我国的经济区域大于行政区划,行政区在社会经济中具有决定作用,地方政府发展本地经济的积极性造成了行政区经济。行政区经济的发展是逆区域经济发展的,解决行政区经济问题应该随着市场化的进程,建立与经济区域相符的行政机构。     

变迁语境下人民监督员制度的反思与深化——解读《最高人民检察院关于实行人民监督员制度的规定》

人民监督员制度在历经7年的试行后得到了全面推行。然而,改革并非一劳永逸,制度的规范性文件、选任主体、监督程序以及监督效力等制约人民监督员制度发展的深层次因素仍然存在。在借鉴试点实践的经验和域外制度的基础上,推进人民监督员制度的法制化、确立独立的选任主体、形成正当的监督程序、强化监督的程序性效力是值得我们期待的发展方向。