INTEGRATIVE SOCIAL CONTRACTS THEORY: ETHICAL IMPLICATIONS OF MARKETING CREDIT CARDS TO U.S. COLLEGE STUDENTS

It may be said that to take advantage of a man's credulity, to exploit his misapprehensions, to capitalize on his ignorance is morally reprehensible—and this may well be the case I do not know.—Nicholas Samstag in The Engineering of Consent ¹     

Book reviews

Ephraim Maisel, The Foreign Office and Foreign Policy 1991-1926 (Brighton: Sussex Academic Press 1994), £35. ISBN 1-898723-04-4.

Timothy P. Maga, The World of Jimmy Carter: U.S. Foreign Policy 1977-1981 (West Haven, CT: University of New Haven Press, 1994). 189 pp. ISBN 0-936385-23-0.

Michael Leifer, Dictionary of the Modern Politics of South-East Asia (London and New York: Routledge, 1995), xii + 271pp. £45. ISBN 0-415-04219-4.

Christopher C. Harmon and David Tucker (eds.), Statecraft and Power: Essays in Honor of Harold W. Rood (Lanham and London: University Press of America with the National Institute for Public Policy, 1994), 284pp ISBN 0-8191-8718-6.     

网络犯罪分析:用户及系统的多视图分析方法

近年来网络犯罪数量呈快速上升的势头,但是却缺乏一种有效的取证方法来处理这些案件.调查人员通常依靠调查大量繁琐的源代码来了解犯罪模型及提取证据,但这种方式需要很多的人力与时间,并可能导致人为错误.为了克服调查人员可能出现的这些潜在错误,我们在本文中提出了一种半自动的方法来解决这些问题.该方法集成了用户视图(基于取证调查人员的高级别研究)和系统视图(基于对源代码的自动分析),来帮助调查人员精确调查的范围.本文应用此方法分析了一个真实案件,证明了方法的可行性,同时帮助调查人员高效地确定了调查范围和犯罪模型.可见这种半自动方法可以对大量有多个来源的电子证据进行有效分析,提高了网络犯罪案件取证的效率和可靠性.     

Law and Coercion: Some Clarification

The relationship between law and coercion has been, and still is, a central topic in legal philosophy. Despite this, discussion about it is immersed in confusion. Some philosophers have noticed this, but hardly any work has been done to attempt to solve or even identify the confusions. This paper aims to fill this gap. Here I propose distinctions and qualifications that help us clarify the relationship between law and coercion and avoid confusion. Building on the clarificatory work, I then argue that despite there being several distinct philosophical discussions about the relationship between law and coercion, one of them should be prioritised.     

Extending the Use and Prediction Precision of Subnational Public Opinion Estimation

The comparative study of subnational units is on the rise. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MrP) has become the standard method for estimating subnational public opinion. Unfortunately, MrP comes with stringent data demands. As a consequence, scholars cannot apply MrP in countries without detailed census data, and when such data are available, the modeling is restricted to a few variables. This article introduces multilevel regression with synthetic poststratification (MrsP), which relaxes the data requirement of MrP to marginal distributions, substantially increases the prediction precision of the method, and extends its use to countries without census data. The findings of Monte Carlo, U.S., and Swiss analyses show that, using the same predictors, MrsP usually performs in standard applications as well as the currently used standard approach, and it is superior when additional predictors are modeled. The better performance and the more straightforward implementation promise that MrsP will further stimulate subnational research.