Distributional impact assessments and the record of the Coalition Government: the tyranny of numbers without interpretation

This paper reflects upon the gross discrepancies between the reassurances given in 2010 by the 2010-2015 UK Coalition Government that their budget and welfare cuts would fall ‘fairly’ across the income spectrum, and the reality of what had happened by the end of that government. It asks how the ‘distributional impact assessment’ provided with the 2010 Comprehensive Spending Review could have been so wrong. In seeking to answer this question, types of systematic bias are considered along with a discussion of ‘marginality’ in assessments of impact. Drawing upon the role of ‘power’ in impact assessment, it traces the ways in which methodological assumptions can eclipse the real life effects of policies behind ‘the average’ as well as by the unfair selection of the ‘unit-of-analysis’.     

A Predictive Test of Voters' Economic Benchmarking: The 2013 German Bundestag Election

Do voters judge their national economy relative to economic performance abroad? In 2013 we took advantage of the German Bundestag election to test this hypothesis predictively. Nearly two months prior to the election, we published an election forecast relying on a theory-driven empirical model of election outcomes that draws on previous election outcomes; characteristics of the government and of voters; and, most originally, the relative economic performance of Germany (‘benchmarked' growth) in comparison to the three other most important economies in Europe – France, the UK and Italy. Our forecast put the outgoing coalition government of CDU/CSU and FDP at 47.05 per cent of the popular vote deviating from the actual outcome of 46.3 by 0.75 points. This makes our forecast one of the most accurate in this election cycle. Despite one-and-a-half months of lead time, our forecast performed on par or slightly better than the last poll results issued only two days before the election.     

Mischief Reef: Geopolitics and implications

This article examines the Mischief Reef and Scarborough Shoal disputes in the context of the dynamic political interaction between China, the Philippines, ASEAN and the United States. A review of recent development indicates that these particular incidents and the Spratly disputes in general have increased in intensity and complexity drawing in ASEAN and the United States. China is the main player and several conclusion are drawn regarding its strategy and tactics. We see the status quo as unstable and propose a few possible directions of actions in the interest of conflict prevention.     

Unemployment,living standards,and the working-class family in urban Canada in 1901

This article addresses a problem faced by many historians of living standards: what was the effect of unemployment on the real incomes of working-class families during industrialization? The 1901 Census of Canada offers a rare opportunity to answer this question, and to measure both unemployment and living standards while taking into account the contributions of all family wage-earners. The conclusion is that average weekly or monthly wages were more important than work duration in determining the living standards of poor families.     

Mt. Laurel: A Major Transition in American Planning Law

American land use law in the late 1960's and early 1970's has been in a period of major and fundamental transition. It has seen a change in the basic policy of the law on one of its most important points as concerns exclusionary zoning, i.e., the attitude towards the three principal parties in interest in land use litigation-developer, neighbor, and excluded party. This entire change has been initiated not by the legislatures, but by the courts. The net result of this transition has been to strengthen the government's ability to impose (under the police power) certain types of regulations, primarily environmental in nature—while at the same time drastically reducing the power to impose regulations deemed exclusionary.