Beyond traditional paternity and identification cases. Selecting the most probable pedigree

The paper extends on the traditional methodology used to quantify DNA evidence in paternity or identification cases. By extending we imply that there are more than two alternatives to choose between. In a standard paternity case the two competing explanations H(1): "John Doe is the father of the child and H(2): "A random man is the father of the child, are typically considered. A paternity index of 100000 implies that the data is 100000 more likely assuming hypothesis H(1) rather than H(2). If H(2) is replaced by "A brother of John Doe is the father", the LR may change dramatically. The main topic of this paper is to determine the most probable pedigree given a certain set of data including DNA profiles. In the previous example this corresponds to determining the most likely relation between John Doe and the child. Based on DNA obtained from victims of a fire, bodies found in an ancient grave or from individuals seeking to confirm their anticipated family relations, we would like to determine the most probable pedigree. The approach we present provides the possibility to combine non-DNA evidence, say age of individuals, and DNA profiles. The program familias, obtainable as shareware from http://www.nr.no/familias, delivers the probabilities for the various family constellations. More precisely, the information (if any) prior to DNA is combined with the DNA-profiles in a Bayesian manner to deliver the posterior probabilities. We exemplify using the well published Romanov data where the accepted solution emerges among 4536 possibilities considered. Various other applications based on forensic case work are discussed. In addition we have simulated data to resemble an incest case. Since the true family relation is known in this case, we may evaluate the method.     

Wrapped in silence: psychotherapists and confidentiality in the courtroom

The impact of the Austrian Psychotherapy Act, which, in contrast to legal provisions in the United States, does not provide for any exceptions to breach confidentiality, is compared with the effects of U.S. law on dealing with confidentiality. The authors investigated the impact of this law in light of three common situations in psychotherapy that may jeopardize strict confidentiality: treating potentially dangerous patients, giving testimony, and serving as a psychotherapist in prison. Under the strict provisions of the Austrian Psychotherapy Act, a breach may be excusable in the case of a highly probable danger, but Austrian psychotherapists cannot be obliged to serve as witnesses or as experts in civil or criminal cases, as American psychotherapists can. Psychotherapy in prison, where release is contingent on the success of the therapy and the divulging of information could be in the interests of the patient as well as the court and the public, requires a modified dealing with confidentiality.     

Analysis of eight STR loci in two Hungarian populations

A collection of eight STR loci (D3S1358, FGA, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D5S818, D13S317, D7S820) was used to generate allele frequency databases for two Hungarian population samples, Caucasians from the Budapest area and Romanies from Baranya county. During the analysis two intermediate sized alleles and a sequence variant allele were observed at the D7S820 locus. All three types of allelic variants were found to have modification (deletion, insertion, transversion) in the same block of a (T)(9) stretch located within the 3' flanking region of each allele, which may indicate a possible higher mutation rate of this (T)(9) block. For the loci D3S1358 and D7S820 the Romany population database showed departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The forensic efficiency values for the Romany population were slightly different from those found in the Hungarian Caucasian population. Comparing the allele frequency values by G-statistic, calculating the F(st) indices and with the pairwise comparisons of inter-population variance, the two Hungarian populations could be distinguished using data of the eight STR loci.     

Swiss Caucasian population data for the STR loci D2S1338 and D19S433 using the AmpFISTR SGM plus PCR amplification kit

Allele and genotype frequencies for the ten STR loci D3S1358, VWA, D16S539, D2S1338, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D19S433, TH01, FGA were determined in a Swiss Caucasian population sample (n=206) using the AmpFISTR SGM Plus Amplification kit. Electrophoresis was carried out on an ABI PRISM CE 310 Genetic Analyzer instrument. Previously, allele frequencies were published for the 13 STR loci D3S1358, VWA, FGA, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D5S818, D13S317, D7S820, THO1, TPOX, CSF1PO and D16S539 for the same samples (n=206) amplified with the AmpFISTR Profiler Plus and Cofiler PCR Amplification kits. Since the results for the eight loci D3S1358, VWA, FGA, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, THO1, D16S539 shared between the AmpFISTR SGM Plus, Profiler Plus and Cofiler PCR Amplification kits already are published, only the allele frequencies for the two STR loci D2S1338 and D19S433 are reported in this paper. The two loci meet Hardy-Weinberg expectations. In addition, there is little evidence for association of alleles among the 15 loci (amplified with the Profiler, Cofiler, and SGM Plus amplification kits). The allelic frequency data can be used in forensic analyses to estimate the frequency of a multiple STR locus DNA profile in the Swiss population.     

A simulation model of tobacco youth access policies

Empirical studies have found that policies aimed at reducing youth access to tobacco have been successful at increasing retail compliance, but their effects on actual tobacco use are mixed. This article presents a model of youth access policies that helps explain the apparently conflicting results in the extant literature, provides a framework for future empirical studies, and suggests implications for public policy. Our model highlights the interaction of components in a well-designed policy, including sufficient compliance checks, penalties, and community involvement. It also illustrates why it will be difficult to eliminate all of youth supply. Nonretail sources, such as borrowing or stealing from parents and siblings and purchasing from older peers through black markets, are an important component of youth supply and become more important as retail access is reduced. The analysis is limited to policies that affect the retail supply of cigarettes but suggests the need for other policies that affect the demand for cigarettes, such as taxes and cessation policies, in order to further reduce youth smoking rates.     

Numerical density of delta-opioid receptor expressing neurons in the frontal cortex of drug-related fatalities

In animal experiment and in cell culture, chronic morphine treatment has been followed by a reduction as well as an increase of the delta-opioid receptor (OR) number. The present postmortem morphometric study of morphine-related fatalities of drug addicts (n=12, 22-35 years old, with blood unconjugated morphine levels from 27.1 to 407 ng/ml, m.v. 176.9 ng/ml) versus a non-addicted control group (n=13, 10-44 years old) is intended to examine whether chronic opiate exposure also affects the numerical density of deltaOR expressing neurons in the human neocortex (area 10 according to Brodmann (Vergleichende Lokalisationslehre der Grosshirnrinde (1909) Johann Ambrosius Barth, Leipzig)). For the immunohistochemical procedure, vibratome sections (100 microm) were incubated with a monoclonal antibody against the deltaOR diluted 1:100, and immunoreactive sites were visualized using an immunoperoxidase protocol. The numerical densities of OR expressing and Nissl-stained neurons were assessed morphometrically (camera lucida drawings). In both collectives, the anti deltaOR immunoreactivity was predominantly localized in pyramidal neurons of layers (L) II/III and V as well as in round and ovoid neurons of L VI. In the drug-related fatalities, the density of neurons expressing deltaOR protein amounted for 2515+/-240/mm(3), in the control group for 2616+/-204/mm(3), thus displaying no statistically significant difference. These findings go along with the binding behavior of opioid ligands in postmortem brains of heroin addicts revealing similar receptor densities and affinities in the control subjects and addicts.     

Methamphetamine-related fatalities in forensic autopsy during 5 years in the southern half of Osaka city and surrounding areas

To outline the recent features of methamphetamine-related fatalities from the medico-legal point of view, a retrospective investigation of forensic autopsy cases involving methamphetamine during a 5-year period (1994-1998) in the southern half of Osaka city and surrounding areas (about 1.57 million population) was undertaken. Among 646 autopsy cases, methamphetamine was detected in 15 victims (nine males, six females; 16-71 years of age; most frequently in males in their thirties). Primary scenes of fatal events were concentrated in the middle of the city. About half of them were transferred from emergency medical centers (survival time, up to 30 h). The cause and manner of death were: methamphetamine poisoning (n=4), homicide (n=4), accidental falls and aspiration from drug abuse (n=4), fire death (n=1), myocardial infarction (n=1), and cerebral hemorrhage (n=1) under drug influence. Usually injection scars and fresh puncture sites were found. Blood methamphetamine concentrations were 2.29-17.05 micromol/dl in the fatal poisoning, 0. 44-3.80 micromol/dl in deaths from other extrinsic causes (trauma), and 1.35-2.17 micromol/dl in cardio- and cerebrovascular strokes. Common complications were cardiomyopathy, cerebral perivasculitis and liver cirrhosis/interstitial hepatitis. Fatal and nonfatal methamphetamine poisonings are separately dealt with by the administrative medical examiner's office and in emergency medical centers. Tightly cooperative approaches of clinical and medico-legal experts are required for the effective social and medical management of drug abuse.