The President's Commission to Study Capital Budgeting: An Interim Review

The President's Commission to Study Capital Budgeting is slated to complete its report by year-end 1998. Even though it would be premature to try to anticipate the Commission's recommendations, it is already clear that the Commission will contribute significantly to the capital budgeting debate by casting the concept of capital budgeting broadly, as a systematic decision process, rather than merely a budget accounting or scoring convention or a government financing alternative to the balanced budget rule. This article summarizes some of the analytical accomplishments of the Commission at the mid-point of its expected life.     

Research utilization in policymaking: A tale of two series (of social experiments)

This paper is an exploratory attempt to view the role that social experiments in general, and the income maintenance experiments and work/welfare demonstrations in particular, have played in the policy process through the lens provided by the knowledge utilization literature. In addition to suggesting that the decision to conduct a social experiment is rarely, if ever, made according to an essentially rational paradigm, this framework helps highlight the range of uses to which findings from social experiments can be put and the circumstances under which various types of uses are more or less likely. Specifically, the knowledge utilization literature suggests that rather than having the dramatic, decisive effects on policy choices that their promoters have often envisioned, social experiments are more likely to affect policy in a variety of subtle ways.     

USING LINEAR TREND MODELS TO ANALYZE POLICY IMPACT

Policy researchers have become increasingly familiar with a number of improved techniques for analyzing data obtained from interrupted time-series designs for evaluating public programs and policies. In this paper we contribute to this trend by presenting two groups of data analysis techniques which are not currently widely used by policy researchers, but are likely to be valuable adjuncts to traditional regression techniques for analyzing data obtained from interrupted time-series designs. First, aids for model specification are presented that enable the analyst to define an appropriate linear trend model—often one which will reduce the degree of multicollinearity and, therefore, produce more precise estimates of the impacts of a public program or policy. Next we consider approaches for point estimation and joint (simultaneous) interval estimation of a policy intervention's total effect at various points in time.     

Calcium and Phosphorus Detection Using Benchtop Versus Handheld X‐ray Fluorescence Spectrometers

Elemental analysis of calcium (Ca) and phosphorus (P) has been shown to be useful in differentiating skeletal and nonskeletal material. X‐ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF) is an attractive, nondestructive technique for forensic anthropologists, and the development of portable XRF instrumentation is promising for field applications. This study examines the performance of handheld XRF instrumentation operated in air compared to a traditional benchtop XRF device that has the ability to control the analysis atmosphere. Both instruments can be used to effectively distinguish skeletal from nonskeletal remains. However, as the measurement atmosphere affects detection levels for calcium and phosphorus, Ca/P ratios obtained from the instruments and analysis conditions were found to differ significantly, with analyses conducted in air showing significantly lower phosphorus detection. Consequently, comparison of Ca/P ratios to conclude skeletal versus nonskeletal origin must be based on data collected under similar analysis conditions.     

Family Transitions and Later Delinquency and Drug Use

Changes in the family structure can be very disruptive to adolescents who live in those families. This article examines the impact of the number of family transitions on delinquent and drug-using behavior. Specifically, the effect of family transitions is hypothesized to be mediated by problems within the family, school, and peer settings. A sample of 646 boys (73%) and girls (27%) taken from a longitudinal panel study of high-risk adolescents are used to examine these hypotheses. For girls, little support is found for the direct or the indirect effect of family transitions on delinquent behavior or drug use. For boys, however, both forms of problem behavior are influenced by family transitions directly and indirectly through changes in, and problems with, peer associations. The findings suggest that during times of family turmoil, the friendship network of adolescent male children is also disrupted, leading to an increase in associations with delinquent others and, in turn, an increase in problematic behaviors.