Predicting dropout from a residential programme for adolescent sexual abusers using pre-treatment variables and implications for recidivism

Abstract

This study addresses the prediction that dropout from a UK specialized residential treatment program for adolescent sexual abusers can be determined from pre-treatment variables. Participants were 49 adolescents aged 12–16?years, who had sexually abused children, peers/adults or both. Of the variables examined, 25 showed a significant association with treatment dropout. A scale, consisting of 20 items, was designed to predict treatment dropout. As a measure it showed internal consistency (alpha?=?0.84) and predictive validity. Treatment dropout was linked to a greater risk of recidivism: offences of a general; violent; and combined violent or sexual nature. Missing data confounded the overall small sample size; therefore, a brief checklist of factors associated with dropout was produced as a guide for treatment managers and clinicians.     

The Everyday Spaces of Global Politics: Work,Leisure, Family

Despite many innovative contributions to international relations theory over the past two decades, a "common sense" view of global politics continues to persist both in the field and in the arenas of public policy and opinion. This article investigates the origins of this persistence and offers an alternative framework for the analysis of global politics that considers international relations as social relations produced by a broad array of actors in multiple spheres. Drawing on the work of Henri Lefebvre, the article investigates the role of alienation in everyday life and the resulting mystifications of the realities of global politics and goes on to consider the social spaces of work, leisure and the family as important arenas where these mystifications can be overcome and international relations be reclaimed from the realm of experts and statesmen.     

Strategies,tactics and the question of un lieu propre : what/where is “media theory”?

This paper uses the work of Michel de Certeau (1988 de Certeau M 1988 The practice of everyday life Berkeley: University of California Press  [Google Scholar]) to argue that it is possible to distinguish between “expert” or “authorised” approaches to media theory, construed as existing “strategically” within the “proper place” of the academy, and “tactical” appropriations of media theory operating in audience discourses. It takes media fan audiences as one case study in relation to this process, arguing that fans should be viewed as “poaching” from “official” media theory as well as from “official” media texts. It then goes on to suggest that we should not univocally celebrate or romanticise fans' uses of media theory, but should remain alert to the sociological and cultural reproductions that otherwise “tactical” media theory can participate in. This means rethinking fans' “tactics” not merely as the “arts of the weak” (de Certeau 1988 de Certeau M 1988 The practice of everyday life Berkeley: University of California Press  [Google Scholar], 37), but simultaneously as forms of appropriation that might enact forms of (sub)cultural power for fans.     

Testing a rational choice model of “desistance:” Decomposing changing expectations and changing utilities

We argue that a rational choice framework can be used to explain declines in offending from adolescence to young adulthood in two ways. First, subjective expectations of offending can be age graded such that perceptions of rewards decrease and perceptions of risks and costs increase. Second, the marginal (dis)utility of crime may be age graded (e.g., preferences for risks, costs, and rewards). We examine changes in offending from adolescence to young adulthood among a subset of individuals from the Pathways to Desistance Study (N = 585) and employ a nonlinear decomposition model to partition differences in offending attributable to changing subjective expectations (X) and changing marginal utilities (β). The results indicate that both have direct and independent effects on changes in offending over time. The results of a detailed decomposition on the subjective expectations also indicate that differences exist across the type of incentives. That is, the effect of changing expectations is attributed mainly to changes in perceived rewards (both social and intrinsic). Changing expectations of social costs and risk of arrest from offending have weak effects on changes in criminal behavior, which suggests that they must be accompanied by increases in the weight placed on these expectations to promote appreciable declines in offending.     

De Novo Advanced Adult‐Onset Offending: New Evidence from a Population of Federal Correctional Clients

Adult antisocial behavior is almost always predated by delinquency during childhood or adolescence; however, there is also evidence of adult‐onset criminal offending. This study examined this controversial subgroup of offenders using self‐reported and official data from a total population of federal correctional clients selected from the Midwestern United States. Difference of means t‐tests, chi‐square tests, and logistic regression models found that 11.7% of clients had an adult onset of offending and 2.7% of clients (n = 23) had an onset occurring at age 60 years or older. This group—introduced as de novo advanced adult‐onset offenders—had high socioeconomic status, mixed evidence of adverse childhood experiences, and virtually no usage of drugs with the exception of alcohol. These offenders were primarily convicted of social security and white‐collar crimes and evinced remarkably low psychopathology and criminal risk. More research is needed to replicate the phenomenon of de novo advanced adult‐onset offending.     

The Effects of Changes in Dynamic Risk on Reoffending among Serious Juvenile Offenders Returning from Residential Placement

This study examines whether changes in dynamic risk during juvenile justice long-term residential placement affect recidivism. Advancing the work of prior dynamic risk change analyses, we examine a large sample of 11,891 male and 1930 female juvenile offenders while taking methodological steps to ensure successful and non-successful youth (in terms of recidivism) are (statistically) identical at admission. Specifically, we employ propensity score matching on residential placement youth who recidivate post-release and non-recidivists on static risk factors and initial dynamic risk scores assessed at admission to residential placement. Post-matching, changes in dynamic risk factors from initial assessment at admission to exit assessment at release are examined with a focus on whether those changes distinguish recidivists from non-recidivists. Separate analyses are conducted for male and female juveniles. Results indicate that changes in dynamic risk do affect recidivism likelihood, but that different factors matter for males and females. These sex-specific models allow for distinct policy recommendations.