Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities’ Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

Although great strides have been made toward forecasting state-level instability, little progress has been made toward the prediction of outbreaks of urban unrest. This article presents a method for the assessment of cities’ vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Forty-five factors correlated with urban unrest are identified and weighted by an expert panel. Based on expert elicitation through an iterative Delphi exercise, the explicitly methodological discussion describes both the process and the resulting assessment framework. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.     

The Revitalization of Diplomatic History: Renewed Reflections

Diplomacy is one of the oldest human institutions, with diplomatic records dating back to some of the earliest civilizations. At present, the methods and content of diplomatic history have much to offer modern scholars, but the field as a whole suffers from being out of step, philosophically, with the mainstream of historical and political-scientific study. The departure of diplomatic history from the philosophical mainstream both of political science and of history in general has left the field in dire straits. Fallen from its former grace, diplomatic history requires a new vision: not a groundbreaking, original vision, but a vision informed by previous generations, adapting their foundational principles to the ideals and demands of the twenty-first century academy. It is thus not only the Grand Tradition itself, but its ethos that must be preserved, in order to retain the distinguishing character and methods of diplomatic and military history as independent, politically moderate academic disciplines, regardless of their reputation among neighboring fields.     

The effectiveness of relapse prevention training in a group of incarcerated child molesters

Abstract

A sample of child molesters participating in the U.K. prison sex offender treatment programme (SOTP) were required to complete a relapse prevention questionnaire before and after treatment. Results indicated that there were significant improvements in both awareness of risk situations and coping strategies, as measured by this instrument, through treatment. Nine months after the end of treatment most agreed to complete the questionnaire again. Those who had shown significant changes in terms of reduction of pro-offending attitudes through treatment maintained their RP skills. Men whose attitudes had not changed, although evidencing good RP skills at the end of treatment, were found to have lost these. This was most noticeable among men who had been released into the community and who had undergone a relatively short amount of therapy on the original SOTP (80 hours). These results indicate that RP training is only really useful where individuals have genuinely changed through treatment; and that the RP training should only be undertaken as part of an extensive treatment programme covering all areas of offending behaviour.     

The relationship between risk,deviance, treatment outcome and sexual reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers completing residential treatment for their offending

Abstract

The study investigated the relationship between static and dynamic risk and reconviction in a sample of child sexual abusers who had completed a long-term residential treatment programme for their sexual behaviour problems. Results found that only High/Very High risk men as measured by a static risk assessment schedule (Risk Matrix 2000) were reconvicted for sexual offences (17% over a 2-year period, 42% over a 5-year period). Results also showed that it was generally men who were rated as a high level of dynamic risk that were reconvicted for a sexual offence (13% versus 5% over a 2-year period; 44% versus 10% over a 5-year period). The study also indicated the benefits of residential treatment for such High risk/High Deviance men in that no men who left the programme having responded to treatment had been reconvicted for sexual offences at either follow-up period.     

A brief measure of the triarchic model of psychopathy among community youths: psychometrics and measurement invariance

ABSTRACT

The development and validation of empirically sound measures that operationalize the Triarchic model of psychopathy among youth is currently in the nascent stage. The present study aimed to examine the psychometric properties of a brief refined measure of the Triarchic model of psychopathy based on the Youth Psychopathic Traits Inventory (YPI-Tri-S) among a mixed-gender school sample of 782 youth (M?=?15.87 years, SD?=?1.72) from Portugal. Confirmatory factor analysis offered support for the theoretically expected three-factor structure. Cross-gender measurement invariance using the present sample and cross-sample measurement invariance of the YPI-Tri-S using a previously collected forensic sample of institutionalized males was established. The YPI-Tri-S showed adequate psychometric properties in terms of discriminant validity, convergent validity, concurrent criterion-related validity, known-groups validity, and internal consistency. Findings indicate that YPI-Tri-S is a valuable brief and psychometrically reliable and valid self-report measure of the Triarchic model of psychopathy for use in diverse samples of youth.     

A systematic review of the literature comparing male non-serial sexual killers and sexual aggressors: examining homogeneous and heterogeneous characteristics of these groups

ABSTRACT

This systematic review considers what is known about the characteristics of sexual killers and sexual aggressors. The aim was to identify which characteristics have consistently been shown to be similar (homogeneous) and which are different (heterogeneous) across these two groups. Ten studies, including approximately 300 sexual killers, were analysed. Only studies where the samples were directly compared and where sexual killers were male, predominantly non-serial and perpetrated against adult female victims were included. Results indicate that levels of loneliness and anger appear to be more prevalent in the sexual killer sample while mental health disorders, criminal history, family structure and history of sexual abuse as well as some crime scene behaviours seem to be similar across the two groups. The results of this review have also highlighted some methodological problems inherent to these types of studies and these issues are discussed from the perspective of improving research on these crimes.     

Treatment programmes for adolescents who commit sexual offences: Dropout and recidivism

This paper reviews the state of research into treatment programmes for adolescent sexual offenders, focusing first on treatment dropout, then on recidivism studies. Pre-treatment variables, which may predict dropout from programmes for these adolescents, have hardly been considered, despite obvious financial and ethical implications. In relation to recidivism studies, these have been carried out quite consistently since the mid 1980s, yet, as is discussed, they still suffer from many methodological problems. The authors also note that research into treatment programmes comes almost exclusively from North America. Thus, such research needs replicating with UK samples in order to assure the applicability of any research findings to this population.     

Predicting dropout from a residential programme for adolescent sexual abusers using pre-treatment variables and implications for recidivism

Abstract

This study addresses the prediction that dropout from a UK specialized residential treatment program for adolescent sexual abusers can be determined from pre-treatment variables. Participants were 49 adolescents aged 12–16?years, who had sexually abused children, peers/adults or both. Of the variables examined, 25 showed a significant association with treatment dropout. A scale, consisting of 20 items, was designed to predict treatment dropout. As a measure it showed internal consistency (alpha?=?0.84) and predictive validity. Treatment dropout was linked to a greater risk of recidivism: offences of a general; violent; and combined violent or sexual nature. Missing data confounded the overall small sample size; therefore, a brief checklist of factors associated with dropout was produced as a guide for treatment managers and clinicians.