A Simple Multivariate Test for Asymmetric Hypotheses

Michael J. Gilligan Department of Politics, New York University, 7th Floor, 726 Broadway, New York, NY 10003 Matt Golder Department of Political Science, Florida State University, 531 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2230 e-mail: wrclark{at}umich.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: michael.gilligan{at}nyu.edu e-mail: mgolder{at}fsu.edu In this paper, we argue that claims of necessity and sufficiencyinvolve a type of asymmetric causal claim that is useful inmany social scientific contexts. Contrary to some qualitativeresearchers, we maintain that there is nothing about such asymmetriesthat should lead scholars to depart from standard social sciencepractice. We take as given that deterministic and monocausaltests are inappropriate in the social world and demonstratethat standard multiplicative interaction models are up to thetask of handling asymmetric causal claims in a multivariate,probabilistic manner. We illustrate our argument with examplesfrom the empirical literature linking electoral institutionsand party system size.     

A psychometric typology of U.K. domestic violence offenders

A number of studies have described subtypes of domestically violent men, and the heterogeneity of domestically violent men is well established. The aim of the current study was to investigate the distribution of subtypes using psychometric measures in convicted domestically violent offenders in England. Four subtypes of offenders were identified: low pathology, borderline, narcissistic, and antisocial. These subtypes were broadly comparable with the family-only, dysphoric/borderline, and generally violent/antisocial types proposed by Holtzworth-Munroe and Stuart. The majority of the sample (60%) best fit the generally violent/antisocial profile. However, the reliance on psychometric measurement and lack of corroborative evidence from partners means that further research is necessary to test these findings.     

Attachment Disorganization and Its Relevance to Sexual Offending

The theoretical nature of attachment disorganization within two separate research traditions, are reviewed. Studies of attachment style related to sexual offending are then critically evaluated, with particular reference to the use of the self-report methodology for studying adult attachment styles. Here, it is argued that these studies may not have taken sufficient account of the disorganized attachment style or used a methodology that was able to adequately capture attachment disorganization. In that attachment disorganization could account for some of the known features of sexual offenders, such as aggression and socioaffective problems. We then suggest that if attachment disorganization is found in some serious sexual offenders this could have implications for treatment. Possible ways of increasing the validity of self-reported attachment style are also discussed within this paper.     

The identification of sexual and violent motivations in men who assault women: implication for treatment

A qualitative analysis of interview data with 41 rapists determined that five implicit theories (ITs) underlie rapists' offense supportive beliefs/feelings/motives: (a) dangerous world (DW)-where men have feelings of generalized anger and/or resentment toward others; (b) women are dangerous-where men hold a set of attitudes that are hostile toward women; (c) women as sexual objects (WSO)-where women are seen as primarily sexual objects; (d) male sex drive is uncontrollable-where sexual urges are seen all consuming; (e) entitlement-where men feel that they can do exactly what they want. Consideration of whether DW or WSO ITs were present or absent indicated that three main groups could be identified: Group 1: violently motivated-presence of DW and/or absence of WSO; Group 2: sexually motivated-presence of WSO and/or absence of DW; Group 3: sadistically motivated-presence of DW and WSO. These results are discussed in terms of treatment needs of rapists.     

Designed to fail: Self-control and involvement in the criminal justice system

This study investigates self-control theory using official and selfreported criminal records of 500 adult offenders. Four items derived from rapsheets (aliases, date of birth, place of birth, and social security number) are used as indicators of the self-control construct. Negative binomial regression models indicate a significant inverse relationship between self-control and escape arrests, failure to appear violations, probation and parole violations, felony convictions, and prison sentences. Since system involvement entails discipline, tenacity, and responsibility, offenders with low self-control are more likely to experience a criminal justice system failure.     

Growing Without Pains? Explaining Liberal Democrat MPs' Behaviour

Recent academic studies and wider commentary on the behaviour of Liberal Democrat MPs have recognised their relatively high level of cohesiveness on whipped votes when compared to that of Labour and the Conservatives, and to the Liberal Democrats' own reputation; but while this trend continues, few studies have focused upon its causes. This article uses the MPs' voting records, personal papers, interviews and wider contextual data to chart the extent of that unity over time, and to explore its origins, including group composition, structure, patronage, relations with the extra-parliamentary party and other parties as well as national party image. It finds the key to this unity in a combination of medium and long-term features of the Liberal and Liberal Democrat group of MPs, rather than a short-term singular determinant.