Actuarial risk assessment and recidivism in a sample of UK intellectually disabled sexual offenders

Abstract

This study examines the effectiveness of three risk assessment instruments: Static-99, Risk Matrix 2000 (RM2000) and the Rapid Risk of Sex Offender Recidivism (RRASOR), in predicting sexual recidivism among 27 intellectually disabled sex offenders. The overall sexual offence reconviction rate was 30%, while non-recidivists remained offence-free over 76 months of follow-up. Static-99 presented as performing as well as guided clinical judgements in mainstream population studies [area under the curve (AUC)=0.64] exceeding the performance of RM2000 (AUC=0.58) in predicting sexual recidivism. However, the results were not statistically significant. In contrast to previous findings, the RRASOR presented the worst level of prediction (AUC=0.42). These results highlight the need to investigate further with larger sample sizes and in conjunction with more dynamic measures of risk. Proposed relevant factors are discussed in detail.     

Democratic Electoral Systems around the world, 1946–2011

This research note describes an update to Golder's (2005)Democratic Electoral Systems (DES) dataset. We extend the temporal scope of the original dataset by including all legislative and presidential elections that took place in democratic states from 2001 to 2011. In addition to significantly expanding the size of the DES dataset, we offer a simplified classification scheme for electoral systems. We also provide more detailed information about all democratic elections since 1946, including the dates for each round of elections as well as the rules used in different electoral tiers. A brief temporal and geographic overview of the data is presented.     

Religious Participation and Economic Conservatism

Why do some individuals engage in more religious activity than others? And how does this religious activity influence their economic attitudes? We present a formal model in which individuals derive utility from both secular and religious sources. Our model, which incorporates both demand‐side and supply‐side explanations of religion, is unusual in that it endogenizes both an individual's religious participation and her preferences over economic policy. Using data on over 70 countries from the pooled World Values Survey, we find that religious participation declines with societal development, an individual's ability to produce secular goods, and state regulations on religion, but that it increases with inequality. We also find that religious participation increases economic conservatism among the poor but decreases it among the rich. Our analysis has important insights for the debate about secularization theory and challenges conventional wisdom regarding the relationship between religious participation and economic conservatism.     

Evidence of a gene x environment interaction in the creation of victimization: results from a longitudinal sample of adolescents

A large body of research has revealed that aggressive personality traits and violent criminal behaviors are influenced by genetic factors. Surprisingly, however, no research has been devoted to investigating the potential genetic origins to adolescent victimization. In the current study, the authors address this gap in the literature by using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health) to examine whether different variants of the dopamine D2 receptor gene (DRD2) are related to victimization, net of the effects of environmental measures. The results of the multivariate models revealed a significant gene X environment interaction in the creation of victimization for White males. Specifically, DRD2 interacted with delinquent peers to predict victimization. The authors discuss the implications of these findings.     

A comparison of rapists and sexual murderers on demographic and selected psychometric measures

This study compared 58 sexual murderers and 112 rapists who were about to undergo treatment in prison for their sexual offending behavior. The two groups were compared on background, personality, offense, and victim characteristics. The sexual murderer group were less likely to have been involved in a relationship at the time of their index offense, generally attacked older victims, and had higher self-esteem. The rapist sample were found to have more violent previous convictions and scored higher on measures of historical deviance (nonsexual), paranoid suspicion, and resentment. No differences were found on the personality or clinical syndrome scales of the Millon Clinical Multiaxial Inventory-III. However, the rapist sample had significantly higher mean scores on the Paranoid Suspicion, Resentment, and Self-Esteem subscales of the Antisocial Personality Questionnaire. Future research should compare the two groups on dynamic or changeable factors to determine differential treatment needs.     

Structural validity of the posttraumatic stress disorder checklist among college students with a trauma history

The authors conducted confirmatory factor analyses to test three-factor and four-factor models of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) using the PTSD Checklist with college students reporting a traumatic event history. The authors found support for the three-factor DSM-IV-based PTSD diagnostic model including reexperiencing, avoidance/numbing, and hyperarousal symptom factors, with slightly better support for a four-factor model separating the avoidance and numbing factors. Results further attest to the PTSD Checklist's construct validity, and to research finding that PTSD avoidance and numbing constructs are distinct.     

Designing policies that intentionally stick: policy feedback in a changing climate

Policy feedback is a widely used concept, but many who use it only focus on the positive and/or unintentional feedback effects of certain types of policy. The literature as a whole is therefore poorly equipped to make sense of the negative policy feedbacks that often appear in more regulatory areas such as climate change, where target groups are put under pressure to shoulder concentrated costs. Advocates of the ‘new’ policy design have an opportunity to address this gap by exploring how policy makers approach the design of policies that intentionally generate positive policy feedbacks and/or are resilient to negative ones. This paper contributes to that effort by identifying the conditions under which specific instrument designs are likely to have opportunity enhancing and/or constraining effects. It relates these expectations to a design situation where positive feedback seemed unlikely, and hence, the challenge of designing locked-in policies was correspondingly greater. It concludes by drawing on the findings of this exploratory case to investigate what the ‘new’ policy design can do better to explicate the temporal aspects of design.     

Variation in decomposition stages and carrion insect succession in a dry tropical climate and its effect on estimating postmortem interval

Insects have an important role in minimum postmortem interval (PMI_min) estimation. An accurate PMI_min estimation relies on a comprehensive study of the development and succession of local carrion insects. No published research on carrion insect succession exists for tropical north Queensland. To address this, we aimed to obtain preliminary observational data concerning the rate of decomposition and insect succession on pig carcasses in Townsville and compare these with other regions of Australia and overseas. Adult insects were collected daily from three pig carcasses for 30 d during summer and identified to family level. Observations of decomposition rate were made each day and progression through the stages of decomposition were recorded. Adult insects were identified to family and their presence/absence used as a proxy for arrival at/departure from the remains, respectively. These preliminary data highlight several interesting trends that may be informative for forensic PMI_min estimation. Decomposition was rapid: all carcasses were at the dry/remains stage by Day 5, which was substantially quicker than all other regions in the comparison. Differences were also observed in the presence/absence of insect families and their arrival and departure times. Given the rapid progression through early decomposition, we argue that later-arriving coleopteran taxa may be more forensically informative in tropical Australia, in contrast with temperate regions where Diptera appear most useful. This research contributes preliminary observational data to understanding insect succession patterns in tropical Australia and demonstrates the critical need for comprehensive local succession data for each climatic region of Australia to enable accurate PMI_min estimation. These data will inform future research targeted at gaining a more comprehensive understanding of insect succession in the Australian tropics.

Key points:

• We obtained preliminary observational data concerning the rate of decomposition and insect succession on pig carcasses in tropical Australia.
• Decomposition was rapid: all carcasses were at the dry/remains stage by Day 5.
• Coleopteran taxa may be more forensically informative in tropical Australia than dipterans.