By ground or by air? Voter mobilization during the United States’ 2008 presidential campaign

Aggregate studies find no effect of campaign advertising on voter turnout in the United States, thereby calling into question experimental and survey-based studies that produce strong turnout effects. In revisiting the debate over the impact of campaign ads, this paper examines the effects of both TV campaign advertising and campaign field offices on aggregate voter turnout during the 2008 US presidential election campaign. In contrast to previous studies, our analysis finds that both campaign field offices and campaign advertising help to stimulate turnout, although the effect of campaign field offices is more robust to alternative model specifications. We also find that only Obama's field offices had any discernible impact on aggregate voter turnout, thereby reinforcing the narrative that the Obama campaign had a superior ground game in 2008.     

Following the Party in Time of War? The Implications of Elite Consensus

Prominent perspectives in the study of conflict point to two factors that exert substantial influence on public opinion about foreign intervention: (1) news about casualties and (2) signals from partisan elites. Past work is limited, however, in what it can say about how these two factors interact. We present an experiment designed to understand the surprisingly common scenario where elites send competing messages about whether the public should support war or oppose it—and these messages do not coincide with party divisions. We find that partisans are generally insensitive to news about casualties, but they become noticeably more sensitive when they perceive within-party disputes over support for the war. Independents, however, respond to news of casualties irrespective of what messages elites send. These findings shed light on when and how the public responds to competing and unclear cues and speak to the role of public opinion in determining conflict outcomes and democratic foreign policy-making more broadly.     

To Tell the Truth: Ad Watch Coverage,Ad Tone,and the Accuracy of Political Advertising

This study examined the relationships among newspaper ad watch coverage, ad tone, and the accuracy of political advertising. A sample of political advertisements (N = 160) was drawn from the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) database and other sources for eight U.S. Senate races. Two experts on each race evaluated the ads’ accuracy and their ideological portrayals of candidates, while trained coders analyzed other aspects of the ads. Ad watch coverage from these races (ad watch N = 109) also was content-analyzed. The number of ad watches overall in a race and the number that explicitly criticized ads were positively related with the level of accuracy of political ads and with a tendency to portray their favored candidates closer to their actual ideological position—but the overall number of ad watches also was positively related with a tendency for ads to portray opponents as more extreme than their positions warranted. Ad watches usually tend to scrutinize negative ads more, but ad watch coverage in this study was unrelated with ad tone and with the number of negative ads in a race. Positive ads were rated as more accurate but also more prone to exaggerate the supported candidates’ centrism compared to other ads. Normative and practical implications are discussed.

We’re not going to let our campaign be dictated by fact checkers.

— Neil Newhouse, pollster for the Mitt Romney 2012 campaign     

Longitudinal Change in High-Cost Prosocial Behaviors of Defending and Including during the Transition to Adulthood

Despite high profile examples that are highlighted in the popular media, we know little about high-cost prosocial behaviors such as defending and including, and how these behaviors might change over time and vary by individual. Thus, this study explored defending and including behaviors across the transition to adulthood by assessing growth and profiles of these high-cost prosocial behaviors over a four-year time span. In addition the study explored gender, emotional (sympathy), cognitive (personal values), individual (self-esteem), and relational (maternal warmth) factors during adolescence that predicted profiles of defending and including during the transition to adulthood. Participants were 469 individuals (52% female, 70% European American) who participated at four time points (ages 18–21). Growth curve analyses showed that defending and including behaviors decreased slightly across the transition to adulthood and these behaviors tended to vary as a function of the target of the behavior. Latent profile analyses revealed three groups at each age, one with low, one with medium, and one with high levels of defending and including. The discussion focused on the prevalence and change in defending and including behaviors during the transition to adulthood, as well as the variability that exists in high-cost behavioral profiles.     

Does Placing Affordable Housing Near Rail Raise Development Costs? Evidence From California’s Four Largest Metropolitan Planning Organizations

California spent over a billion dollars supporting the construction of subsidized affordable housing in rail-adjacent neighborhoods through its transit-oriented development program. We test whether placing affordable housing close to rail or in jobs-rich communities increases development costs on a per-unit basis. We constructed budget and land-use data for nearly 500 tax credit-financed affordable housing sites which applied for tax credits in the state between 2008 and 2016. Through hedonic cost modeling and spatially lagged regression, we fail to find a significant effect of proximity to rail on development costs. Only by interacting proximity to transit with a project being higher than four stories do our models yield a significant effect of 8% higher total development costs. But in these models, a negative 16% interaction term suggests this cost impact is completely absorbed by developers by building above four stories. Beyond this, we find that only jobs–housing balance correlates significantly with per-unit development costs: as the number of jobs relative to housing within a five-mile radius of a site increases by 1, per-unit development costs increases by a mere 5%, on average.     

The integration of British undergraduate men’s public and private masculinities

Abstract

Recent research has highlighted British heterosexual men espousing gay-friendly attitudes, and adopting ‘softer’ gendered behaviours. In contexts where overt homophobia is increasingly stigmatized, it is possible that these public avowals of attitudes do not correspond with privately held beliefs. In this article, I draw on a two-year covert insider-ethnography of undergraduate men to investigate men’s private attitudes related to homosexuality and their embodied masculinities. In these contexts, these men were found to be as emotionally open, inclusive and homosocially tactile as they were in public. Drawing on Goffman’s notion of front and backstage, I contend that these men’s masculine identities are ‘authentic’ components of themselves, and are more than strategic presentations of self.     

Recovering religion: practising intersectoral cooperation in a time of cholera

ABSTRACT

Due to social and historical forces resistant to predictions of religion’s waning influence in the modern world, responses to contemporary epidemics continue to involve local religious entities and global religious networks. This viewpoint draws on the history of the 1854 cholera epidemic in London to highlight how histories of cooperation between religion and public health can help focus current thinking about the potential for intersectoral cooperation in response to modern epidemics.     

Exposure to Political Disagreement in Social Media Versus Face-to-Face and Anonymous Online Settings

This article investigates political disagreement on social media in comparison to face-to-face and anonymous online settings. Because of the structure of social relationships and the social norms that influence expression, it is hypothesized that people perceive more political disagreement in social media settings versus face-to-face and anonymous online settings. Analyses of an online survey of adults in the United States show that (a) social media users perceive more political disagreement than non-users, (b) they perceive more of it on social media than in other communication settings, and (c) news use on social media is positively related to perceived disagreement on social media. Results are discussed in light of their implications for current debates about the contemporary public sphere and directions for future research.     

Hemispheric reconfigurations in Northern Amazonia: the ‘Three Guianas’ amid regional change and Brazilian hegemony

Regional and hemispheric reconfigurations in Latin America and the Caribbean are increasingly mediated by Brazilian power, and the engagement of Guyana, Suriname and French Guiana with this emerging context is intriguing. They are tentatively moving away from a Caribbean region with which they are culturally contiguous, towards a South American continent in which they are geographically located. This is partly a reflection of the gradual opening up of the Northern Amazonian space that they share collectively, and also with Venezuela and Brazil. These processes are occurring as cause and effect of Brazil’s emergence as a regional – and even regionally hegemonic – power. With reference to wider debates on regionalism and hegemony, we analyse the uncertain consequences of these shifts.