Drilling Deeper: A Systematic,Context-Sensitive Investigation of Causal Mechanisms in the Oil–Conflict Link

Abstract

This article employs an innovative methodology to study causal mechanisms in the oil–conflict link by combining a systematic approach with taking into account country details. Engaging in a deductive test of causal mechanisms in a controlled comparison of four major oil exporters, results show that no oil-related causal mechanism can fully explain the differences in violence. A more inductive analysis complemented by process tracing suggests a more comprehensive mechanism: oil contributes to the formation of opposition through grievances. Levels of violence, however, vary largely according to non-oil conditions – particularly the cohesiveness of opposition and the reaction of government to challengers.     

An experimental analysis of voting in the Stability and Growth Pact in the European Monetary Union

The Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) in the European Monetary Union shall deter countries from running excessive deficits by the threat of punishment, executed conditional on the outcome of a multistage voting procedure. We examine voting behaviour in an experiment which closely resembles the SGP’s design and find that the SGP enables larger countries to block punishment more often than smaller countries. In addition, we study an institutional modification of the SGP by excluding countries with excessive deficits from voting on other ‘fiscal sinners’. Our findings clearly suggest that this innovation would give the SGP sharper teeth than it actually has in reality.     

Rhetoric and Action: What are Central Banks Doing Before Elections?

Central bank rhetoric need not always be followed bycorresponding measures. In a number of regressions coveringGermany, Japan and the U.S. we examine differences in rhetoricand actual behavior before elections, using a standard PBCmodel. Our results indicate that these three central bankshave not been influenced by electoral consideration in thepolicies they implement, but the case of the German Bundesbankindicates that it may be helpful to distinguish betweenrhetoric and action.     

Spontaneous rupture of the urinary bladder

The report presents the case of a 33-year-old man under the primary assumption of homicide in which the court-ordered autopsy revealed death as a result of bleeding due to a spontaneous rupture of the urinary bladder. The article gives a short summary of the pathomorphological findings and their respective causes, for example the typical location of the rupture at the posterior wall and roof of the bladder and the common concomitant drunkenness. Furthermore, obligatory forensic investigations--beside the autopsy--are mentioned and discussed.