What Terrorist Leaders Want: A Content Analysis of Terrorist Propaganda Videos

In recent years, a growing body of empirical research suggests that indiscriminate violence against civilian targets tends to carry substantial political risks compared to more selective violence against military targets. To better understand why terrorist groups sometimes attack politically suboptimal targets, scholars are increasingly adopting a principal-agent framework where the leaders of terrorist groups are understood as principals and lower level members as agents. According to this framework, terrorist leaders are thought to behave as essentially rational political actors, whereas lower level members are believed to harbor stronger non-political incentives for harming civilians, often in defiance of leadership preferences. We test this proposition with an original content analysis of terrorist propaganda videos. Consistent with the principal–agent framework, our analysis demonstrates statistically that terrorist leaders tend to favor significantly less indiscriminate violence than their operatives actually commit, providing unprecedented insight into the incentive structure of terrorist leaders relative to the rank-and-file.     

Beyond Keeping the Peace: Can Peacekeepers Reduce Ethnic Divisions After Violence?

Existing research suggests that international peacekeeping contributes to conflict resolution and helps sustain peace, often in locations with hostile ethnic divisions. However, it is unclear whether the presence of peacekeepers actually reduces underlying ethnocentric views and parochial behaviors that sustain those divisions. We examine the effects of NATO peacekeeper deployments on ethnocentrism in postwar Bosnia. While peacekeepers were not randomly deployed in Bosnia, we find that highly ethnocentric attitudes were common across Bosnia at the onset of peacekeeper deployments, reducing endogeneity concerns. To measure ethnocentrism, we employ a variety of survey instruments as well as a behavioral experiment (the dictator game) with ethnic treatments across time. We find that regions with peacekeepers exhibit lower levels of ethnocentrism in comparison to regions without peacekeepers, and this effect persists even after peacekeepers have departed. The peacekeeping effect is also robust to a sub-sample of ethnic Bosnian Serbs, suggesting that peacekeeper deployments can have positive effects on diminishing ethnocentrism, even when local communities are especially hostile to their presence. Our results speak to the potential long-term role of peacekeepers in reducing tensions among groups in conflict.

     

‘A Great Politicianess’: Ann Jebb,Rational Dissent and politics in late eighteenth‐century Britain 1

This article discusses the life of Ann Jebb (1735–1812) in light of recent scholarship on gender and politics in late eighteenth‐century Britain. Wife of the Unitarian political activist John Jebb, Ann was one of the most respected women among ‘enlightened’ Rational Dissenters. In the 1770s at Cambridge, and afterwards in London, she held ‘tea parties’ for reformers, and wrote pamphlets and newspaper articles supporting religious, educational and political reform. Her case sheds light on the activities and status of women in reform circles during the ‘age of cultural revolution’, and further complicates the separate spheres model of gender in the late eighteenth century.     

Common Wealth

After reviewing developments in human rights law and international law – in particular the domestication of international human rights law and the rise of the democratic norm in international law – the importance of these developments for the Commonwealth and for its member states is highlighted and linked to many of the programmes and policies that the Commonwealth Secretariat has recently launched. This paper discusses these developments and others in order to stress the wealth of potential advantages for Commonwealth member states and their citizens that flow from a common commitment under the rule of law to human rights and democracy. The authors endeavour to show that such wealth is more than mere economic benefit – as important as that undoubtedly is – and that citizens stand to reap a moral system of government, one which expands the opportunities for popular participation in political processes and puts an end to social practices that marginalise some citizens and empower others.