Dodging Dodd‐Frank: Excessive Speculation,Commodities Markets,and the Burden of Proof

Inspired by the wave of regulatory rulemaking, which followed the 2008 financial crisis and the passage of the Dodd‐Frank Act, this article examines the efforts of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission to implement one such rule: Rule 76 FR 4752. Born of concerns with the impact of financial speculators on commodities prices, the rule calls for the expanded use of position limits to control “excessive speculation” in US commodities markets. In documenting the political and legal life of this rule from its roots in policy reports through to its suspension by a federal judge, the article explores the place of “evidence” in the rulemaking process. Particular attention is devoted to the growing evidentiary burden placed on financial regulators who are expected to frame market problems in terms of quantitative, price‐based forms of harm. In the case of position limits, this has involved statistical analyses of the causal connections between excessive speculation and commodities prices and the use of a single statistical test: Granger causality. By examining the parameters and limitations of this test, the article offers a valuable window into the unique challenges of financial regulation and their roots in questions of knowledge, evidence, and proof.     

The business of bribery: Globalization, economic liberalization, and the “problem” of corruption

This paper is intended as a critical response to the emerging consensus within both academic and policy literatures that we are currently facing an epidemic of corruption which threatens to undermine the stability of economic and political development on both a national and global scale, and which requires both immediate and wide-ranging policy interventions. Based on a review of the publications and policy statements of the leading anti-corruption crusaders — namely the OECD, the IMF, and the World Bank — it will be argued that the recent concern with corruption is attributable, not to any substantive increase incorrupt practices, but rather, to the re-framing of corruption in light of broader shifts and transformations within the global economy. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

East German Intelligence and Ireland, 1949–90: Espionage,Terrorism and Diplomacy

This article analyses the writings of a prominent German social and political theorist ‐ Jürgen Habermas ‐ on the process of (reunification in Germany and examines responses to his interventions by right‐wing thinkers opposed to his views. (Re)unification is a setting of rapidly developing and changing events which present a challenge to Habermas’ thinking. Put simply, Habermas is highly critical of the ‘rush towards (re)unification’ and the process which has followed it. In particular, he objects to attempts by right‐wing thinkers, predominantly historians, to rewrite German history and which elude German responsibility in respect of the horrors of the Holocaust. Equally, he has explicitly shown the links between questions of German identity and the rewriting of German history and argues that the only viable identity for Germany post‐(re)Unification is that of ‘constitutional identity’ and not national identity. His writings have, however, been the subject of sometimes vehement and vitriolic critiques and this article seeks not only to engage with these but also to examine the interventions of Habermas in relation to his earlier more theoretical writings.     

Technical decisions and public accountability

Abstract. The paper focuses on Canadian decisions involving technical issues. The inherent difficulties associated with the application of technical advice and the need to secure public accountability for related government action are both discussed. It is suggested specifically that although there has been a significant governmental response to the problem of man-made hazards, much remains to be achieved. The general difficulties with the concepts of ‘public accountability’ and ‘technical advice’ are reviewed, and some observations are made on the idea of ‘risk’ The particular Canadian problems dealt with include those derived from the constitutional and overall political situation. The case of asbestos is introduced especially to illustrate inter-provincial inadequacies. Intra-provincial shortcomings are brought out by reference to the dangers resulting from lead. Note is taken of the limitations imposed by the legal system, and of the issues precipitated by Canada's industrial structure. The foreign policy dimension is recognized. The vinyl chloride issue is used to illustrate the long-term and yet fundamental nature of many risks. Recommendations are finally made concerning the roles of the Environmental Advisory Council and of the National Research Council's Associate Committee on Scientific Criteria for Environmental Quality, and an attempt is made to identify the detailed responsibilities which should fall to the federal government, both in regard to general and occupational standards covering man-made hazards, and more generally in regard to all the ways in which the general and specific publics can be safeguarded. Sommaire. L'auteur traite plus particulièrement des décisions relatives aux questions techniques. Il expose les difficultés inhérentes à l'application des conseils techniques et le besoin d'assurer le droit de regard du public sur les mesures gouvernementales. Il considère en particulier, qu'en dépit de la réaction positive du gouvernement face au problème des risques d'origine humaine, il reste encore beaucoup a faire. Il examine les difficultés générales que présentent les concepts du « droit de regard du public » et des « conseils techniques » et il présentent certaines observations sur la notion de » risque ». Les problèmes plus particulièrement canadiens dont il s'occupe sont la consequence de la situation constitutionnelle et de la situation politique générale. Il utilise le cas de l'amiante pour illustrer les carences interprovinciales. Ces mêmes carences sont évidentes, également, si l'on considère les dangers que présente le plomb. Il prend note des limites imposées par la loi et les problèmes posés par la structure industrielle du Canada. Il reconnait aussi la dimension politique étrangère. L'auteur se sert de la question du chlorure de vinyle pour illustrer le caractère à long terme et pourtant fondamental d'un grand nombre de dangers. Il fait des recommandations quant aux rôles du Conseil consultatif sur l'environnement et du comité du cnr sur les normes scientifiques pour la qualité de l'environnement. Il dégage enfin les différentes responsabilités du government fédéral, quant aux normes générales et professionnelles couvrant les risques créés par l'homme et, d'une façon plus large, quant aux moyens de protéger le public, qu'il s'agisse du grand public ou de groupes particuliers.     

Examining the Criminal History and Future Offending of Child Pornography Offenders: An Extended Prospective Follow-up Study

We examined police occurrence and criminal records data for a sample of 201 registered male child pornography offenders originally reported by Seto and Eke (Sex Abus J Res Treat 17:201–210, 2005), extending the average follow-up time for this sample to 5.9 years. In addition, we obtained the same data for another 340 offenders, increasing our full sample to 541 men, with a total average follow-up of 4.1 years. In the extended follow-up of the original sample, 34% of offenders had new charges for any type of reoffense, with 6% charged with a contact sexual offense against a child and an additional 3% charged with historical contact sex offenses (i.e., previously undetected offenses). For the full sample, there was a 32% any recidivism rate; 4% of offenders were charged with new contact sex offences, an additional 2% of offenders were charged with historical contact sex offenses and 7% of offenders were charged with a new child pornography offense. Predictors of new violent (including sexual contact) offending were prior offense history, including violent history, and younger offender age. Approximately a quarter of the sample was sanctioned for a failure on conditional release; in half of these failures, the offenders were in contact with children or used the internet, often to access pornography again.     

Latent fingermark visualisation using reduced-pressure sublimation of copper phthalocyanine

The sublimation of copper phthalocyanine (CuPc) at a temperature of 400°C under conditions of reduced pressure is shown to be an effective method of developing latent fingermarks on certain types of surface. Preliminary experiments on a limited selection of surfaces including paper, plastic and ceramic tiles were carried out using a simple apparatus consisting of a vacuum desiccator and a resistive heater. CuPc from the gas phase condenses preferentially on fingermark deposits, revealing deep blue patterns with excellent ridge detail clarity on light coloured surfaces. The technique is shown to be most effective on porous surfaces such as paper, but relatively ineffective on non-porous ceramic and plastic surfaces.     

Intimate violence among underrepresented groups on a college campus

Rape, sexual violence, psychological violence, and physical violence, among college students have been a concern. Lifetime events are often studied but not violence that specifically transpires while one is in college. Underrepresented groups such as Deaf and Hard of Hearing students, students who are gay, lesbian, and bisexual, and students who are members of racial and ethnic minorities have not been studied as extensively as White, heterosexual females. The authors used several measures to investigate the incidence of sexual violence, physical and psychological abuse among underrepresented groups in a random sample of 1,028 college students at a private, northeastern, technological campus in upstate New York, United States and analyzed victimization rates by gender, race/ethnicity, auditory status, and sexual orientation. Binary logistic regression analyses found that statistically significant differences are likely to exist between members of underrepresented groups and groups in the majority. The study found statistically significant associations between Deaf and Hard of Hearing students and students who were gay, lesbian, bisexual, or other sexual orientation with psychological abuse and physical abuse. Racial and ethnic minorities and gay, lesbian, bisexual, and other sexual orientation students were significantly more at risk for sexual abuse. Gay, lesbian, bisexual, and other sexual orientation students, students who were members of a racial or ethnic minority, and female students were significantly more likely to be raped. Female heterosexual students were more likely to be the victim of an attempted rape. Suggestions for further research and policy implications are provided.     

Gender differences in risk for intimate partner violence among South African adults

Despite a high prevalence of intimate partner violence in South Africa, few epidemiological studies have assessed individual risk factors and differential vulnerability by gender. This study seeks to analyze gender differences in risk for intimate partner violence victimization and perpetration according to childhood and adult risk factors in a national sample of South African men and women. Using data from the cross-sectional, nationally representative South Africa Stress and Health Study, the authors examine data from 1,715 currently married or cohabiting adults on reporting of intimate partner violence. Our analysis include (a) demographic factors, (b) early life risk factors (including exposure to childhood physical abuse, witnessing parental violence, parental closeness, and early onset DSM-IV disorders), and (c) adult risk factors (including experiencing the death of a child and episodes of DSM-IV disorders after age 20). Although prevalence rates of intimate partner violence are high among both genders, women are significantly more likely than men to report being victimized (29.3% vs. 20.9%). Rates of perpetrating violence are similar for women and men (25.2% and 26.5%, respectively). Men are more likely to report predictive factors for perpetration, whereas women are more likely to report predictors for victimization. Common risk factors among men and women reporting perpetration include exposure to childhood physical abuse, witnessing parental violence, and adult onset alcohol abuse/dependence. However, risk factors in male perpetrators are more likely to include cohabitation, low income, and early and adult-onset mood disorders, whereas risk factors in female perpetrators include low educational attainment and early onset alcohol abuse/dependence. The single common risk factor for male and female victims of partner violence is witnessing parental violence. Additional risk factors for male victims are low income and lack of closeness to a primary female caregiver, whereas additional risk factors for female victims are low educational attainment, childhood physical abuse, and adult onset alcohol abuse/dependence and intermittent explosive disorder. Intimate partner violence is a significant public health issue in South Africa, strongly linked to intergenerational cycling of violence and risk exposure across the life course. These findings indicate that gender differences in risk and common predictive factors, such as alcohol abuse and exposure to childhood violence, should inform the design of future violence-prevention programs and policies.     

Does Voting by Mail Increase Participation? Using Matching to Analyze a Natural Experiment

Megan Mullin Department of Political Science, Temple University, 408 Gladfelter Hall (025-22), 1115 West Berks Street, Philadelphia, PA 19122-6089 e-mail: mmullin{at}temple.edu (corresponding author) Would holding elections by mail increase voter turnout? Manyelectoral reform advocates predict that mail ballot electionswill boost participation, basing their prediction on the highturnout rate among absentee voters and on the rise in voterturnout after Oregon switched to voting by mail. However, selectionproblems inherent to studies of absentee voters and Oregon giveus important reasons to doubt whether their results would extendto more general applications of voting by mail. In this paper,we isolate the effects of voting in mail ballot elections bytaking advantage of a natural experiment in which voters areassigned in a nearly random process to cast their ballots bymail. We use matching methods to ensure that, in our analysis,the demographic characteristics of these voters mirror thoseof polling-place voters who take part in the same elections.Drawing on data from a large sample of California counties intwo general elections, we find that voting by mail does notdeliver on the promise of greater participation in general elections.In fact, voters who are assigned to vote by mail turn out atlower rates than those who are sent to a polling place. Analysisof a sample of local special elections, by contrast, indicatesthat voting by mail can increase turnout in these otherwiselow-participation contests. Authors' note: We are grateful to the Haynes Foundation forsupporting this project, Karin MacDonald for bringing mail ballotprecincts to our attention, Anup Pradhan for providing criticaldata, Shawn Treier for his helpful comments on an earlier draft,and Sam Deddeh and Mike Binder for data entry assistance.