Can Courtroom Behavior Predict Recidivism? An Assessment of the Courtroom Behavior Check List for Women Presenting in Drug Court

The U.S. criminal justice system is overwhelmed with individuals affected by substance use and psychiatric disorders often co-morbid with criminal behavior. Locally, an evaluation of St. Louis downtown municipal ordinance violators found that 49 % of offenders reported mental health problems, 30 % reported alcohol-related problems, 86 % had a history of prior arrests and 71 % had failed to appear in the St. Louis City Municipal Court within the previous 2 years (Downtown St. Louis Community Court Evaluation Report, St. Louis, MO). These compounded conditions and their corresponding treatment needs are costly and complicate correctional rehabilitation efforts. Drug courts have emerged as alternative ‘therapeutic jurisprudence’ avenues designed to reduce drug use and associated individual risk behaviors. Unfortunately, there are few evidence-based measures available for rapid, onsite evaluation of an individuals’ potential for success with drug court. A new assessment tool, the Courtroom Behavior Check List (CRBCL), was developed to measure behavioral compliance in court as a predictor of future behavior, as we believed that behavior in court would predict future criminal behavior. We found scores on the CRBCL declined (e.g., improved) among the 127 women interviewed from baseline through the 8-month follow-up, and that a poorer score predicted re-arrest for a criminal offense (OR?=?2.84; 95 % CI 1.20–6.69). Based upon these findings, the CRBCL may be a useful tool to measure the likelihood of re-offending among women in drug court. Policy implications and directions for future research are discussed.     

Foreign policy indicators: Predictors of war in history and in the state of the world message

Despite the promising advances in the construction and use of social indicators, there has been little application to the formulation, monitoring, or evaluation of foreign policy. In the formulation stage—our concern here—predictor or early warning indicators could be very useful. The annual state of the world message contains many such predictive indicators of war, but in a purely verbal and intuitive form. Three of these (prior war, relative capabilities, and alliance levels) are converted into operational language and then put to the empirical test. In general, the indicators do not predict war (over the past 150 years) as postulated by the Administration. These tests are, however, very incomplete, and our objective is not to evaluate the Administration's arguments, but to suggest one way in which indicators could improve the quality of foreign policy formulation.This is a revised and abbreviated version of the paper originally prepared for the 1972 meetings of the American Political Science Association held in Washington, D.C. We want to acknowledge the important assistance of Hugh Wheeler, the comments and help of John Stuckey, Russell Leng, Stuart Bremer, Catherine Kelleher, and Charles Gochman, and the support of the National Science Foundation under grant no. GS-28476X1.     

Adolescents' perceptions of the costs and benefits of engaging in health-compromising behaviors

The present investigation examined the costs and benefits that adolescents perceive for engaging or not engaging in two potentially health-compromising behaviors: underage alcohol use and nonmarital sexual intercourse. A number of hypotheses regarding gender, behavioral status, and grade differences were examined in a sample of over 2400 7th–12th graders. Our hypotheses were more clearly confirmed for perceived costs than for perceived benefits. For both sexual activity and alcohol use, there were strong differences in perceived costs between the two status groups, with nondrinkers and nonsexually active adolescents perceiving significantly more costs to these behaviors. Contrary to our hypotheses, perceived benefits did not discriminate between the two status groups. As was hypothesized, girls generally perceived more costs than did boys for engaging in sexual intercourse and using alcohol; students' perceptions of the costs of alcohol use decreased with increasing grade level. The grade trends concerning the other costs and benefits scales were all complicated by interactions with behavioral status. This study supports the idea that adolescents' perceptions of the costs and benefits of various health-compromising behaviors are related to gender, age, and the behaviors themselves. The findings further indicate that the costs adolescents perceive are more important than the perceived benefits for understanding why some adolescents engage in these behaviors and others do not.An earlier version of this paper was presented at the annual meeting of the National Council on Family Relations, Seattle, Washington, November 1990.Received Ph.D from Cornell University in developmental psychology. Research interests include adolescent risk taking and adolescent-parent relations.Received Ph.D. from the University of Wisconsin-Madison in child and family studies. Research interests include adolescent-parent relations and adolescent and adult development.Research interests include adolescent sexuality and interpersonal violence.