Using the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) to Test Estimates of Arrestee and Offender Characteristics

National-Incident Based Reporting System (NIBRS) information for 1993 iscompared with two other sets of homicide data to assess the acuracy ofprocedures for estimating age-, sex-, and race-specific arrest counts fromtraditional Uniform Crime Report (UCR) data. The simultaneous age, race, andsex characteristics of offenders provided in the NIBRS arrest and offender segmentsare compared with estimates of the same characteristics derived from summaryUCR arrest data. The results suggest that using UCR marginal totals toestimate arrest counts by race and sex produces reasonably accurateestimates of the number of black and nonblack male arrests for murder andother offenses. Estimates of arrests of females by race and sex are lessaccurate, probably because of the relatively small number of arrests ofwomen and girls. Estimating male arrest counts for specific age groups alsoproduces reasonably accurate estimates. The results suggest that previousresearch employing such estimates may have been misleading in the estimatesof female arrests by race but accurate in the estimates of male arrests byrace. Although the use of summary UCR-based estimates in futurecross-sectional research will become increasingly unnecessary as the NIBRSreplaces the current UCR program, time series research designs on arrest andcrime trends will continue to require estimates.     

Analogy and Authority in Cyberterrorism Discourse: An Analysis of Global News Media Coverage

This article explores constructions of cyberterrorism within the global news media between 2008 and 2013. It begins by arguing that the preoccupation with questions of definition, threat and response in academic literature on cyberterrorism is problematic, for two reasons. First, because it neglects the constitutivity of representations of cyberterrorism in the news media and beyond; second, because it prioritises policy-relevant research. To address this, the article provides a discursive analysis drawing on original empirical research into 31 news media outlets across the world. Although there is genuine heterogeneity in representations of cyberterrorism therein, we argue that constructions of this threat rely heavily on two strategies. First, appeals to authoritative or expert “witnesses” and their institutional or epistemic credibility; second, generic or historical analogies, which help shape understanding of the likelihood and consequences of cyberterrorist attack. These strategies have particular discursive importance, we argue, given the lack of readily available empirical examples of the “reality” of cyberterrorism.     

Terrorism,counter-terrorism,and critique: opportunities,examples, and implications

This article explores the parameters, value and limitations of different critical strategies for those dissatisfied with the contemporary politics of terror. It argues, first, that the prominent (counter-)terrorism paradigm – in which terrorism is approached as a ubiquitous and very specific security challenge meriting appropriately exceptional responses – is far more critiqued than we might anticipate. And, second, that such critiques – which can be found across political language, popular culture, everyday life, and beyond – employ distinct critical resources to serve varying ends. Reflecting on these, the article offers a new heuristic distinguishing five critical strategies which seek to: (i) repudiate; (ii) question; (iii) subvert; (iv) replace, or (v) deconstruct the prominent counter-terrorism paradigm. This typology, it argues, offers scope for optimism and strategic resources for those attracted to a critical terrorism studies project going forward.     

The Cyberterrorism Threat: Findings from a Survey of Researchers

This article reports on a recent research project exploring academic perspectives on the threat posed by cyberterrorism. The project employed a survey method, which returned 118 responses from researchers working across 24 different countries. The article begins with a brief review of existing literature on this topic, distinguishing between those concerned by an imminent threat of cyberterrorism, and other, more skeptical, views. Following a discussion on method, the article's analysis section then details findings from three research questions: (1) Does cyberterrorism constitute a significant threat? If so, against whom or what?; (2) Has a cyberterrorism attack ever taken place?; and (3) What are the most effective countermeasures against cyberterrorism? Are there significant differences to more traditional forms of anti- or counterterrorism? The article concludes by reflecting on areas of continuity and discontinuity between academic debate on cyberterrorism and on terrorism more broadly.     

Political Orientation and Ideological Inconsistencies: (Dis)comfort with Value Tradeoffs

People are often inconsistent in the way they apply their values to their political beliefs (e.g., citing the value of life in opposing capital punishment while simultaneously supporting abortion rights). How do people confront such inconsistencies? Liberals were more likely to say that issues that could draw on several competing values were complex issues that required value tradeoffs, whereas conservatives were more likely to deny the comparability of the issues. We argue that this difference is rooted in the distinct ways that liberals and conservatives represent political issues. Additional evidence suggested that conservatives’ higher need for closure leads them to represent issues in terms of salient, accessible values. Although this may lead conservatives’ attitudes to be more situationally malleable under some circumstances, such shifts do serve to protect an absolutist approach to one’s moral values and help conservatives to deny the comparability of potentially inconsistent positions.     

Information,Agreement Design,and the Durability of Civil War Settlements

Civil war is usually examined from the perspective of commitment problems. This approach provides considerable insight regarding which civil war agreement provisions reduce the chance of renewed fighting. Yet, additional insight can be gained by examining information asymmetries as a potential cause of civil war recurrence. We argue that significant uncertainty regarding military capabilities may persist after fighting ends and that this uncertainty may lead to the breakdown of peace. However, carefully designed peace agreements can guard against renewed civil war by calling for international monitoring, making the belligerents submit military information to third parties, and providing for verification of this information. Our empirical analysis of 51 civil war settlements between 1945 and 2005 shows that these provisions significantly reduce the risk of new civil war. Encouraging the adoption of these provisions may be a useful policy in the international community's effort to establish peace in civil‐war‐torn societies.     

An Unplanned Complex Suicide by Multiple Blank Cartridge Gunshots and Cutting

Blank firing guns are readily accessible in most countries due to an absence of legal regulations. These weapons are capable of causing lethal injuries. We report a rare case of secondary (unplanned) complex suicide committed with a knife and blank cartridge pistol. A 59‐year‐old man was found dead with three superficial incisions in his neck and a gunshot wound to the chest. The external examination revealed an entrance wound in the left chest region consistent with contact shooting. The appearance of a muzzle imprint suggested two discharges. The autopsy showed a slightly hemorrhaged but otherwise intact pericardium, blood in the pericardial sac, and a channel‐like defect in the anterior wall of the left cardiac ventricle. The cause of death was attributed to cardiac tamponade. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first reported case of unplanned complex suicide involving an unmodified blank firing gun.     

Effective evaluation of projects on violence against women and girls

What makes evaluations useful for interventions on violence against women and girls (VAWG)? This article reports on a qualitative comparative analysis of 39 evaluations, and shows that it takes a combination of elements to produce good evaluation effects. It identifies eight configurations of conditions which have generated effective evaluations. Key elements were the evaluation context, the evaluators’ sensitivity to gender and to the participants’ rights and security, and consultation with persons considered to be the ultimate “beneficiaries” of the intervention. Both qualitative and quantitative approaches could lead to effective evaluation. The article concludes with recommendations for evaluation users.     

Policy entrepreneurship and institutional change: Who,how, and why?

In the past three decades, “policy entrepreneurship” has emerged as a key analytical concept helping to explain institutional and policy change. Despite this, however, the literature on policy entrepreneurship remains theoretically vexed, producing limited theoretical knowledge or explanatory models able to draw firm conclusions. Theory building on policy and institutional change, for example, how policy entrepreneurs institute and navigate change agendas, using what tools, strategies, resources, and capacities remains opaque. This is especially the case in developing country contexts, where most analytical investigation of policy entrepreneurship has addressed “first world” case examples. This special issue seeks to address this analytical gap in the literature, focusing on cases specific to developing country contexts, deepening our empirical knowledge of policy entrepreneurship in developing countries, but also exploring theoretical and conceptual debates as they relate to developing countries.     

Quantifying the Qualitative: Eliciting Expert Input to Develop the Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool

Abstract

This article discusses the participatory creation of the Multidimensional Poverty Assessment Tool (MPAT), a survey-based thematic indicator developed in China and India. The core of the article focuses on the use of expert elicitation to inform the construction of MPAT’s household and village surveys, the cardinalisation of survey responses, and the weighting scheme design. This is followed by a discussion of the potential pitfalls of expertise in development, the decision not to aggregate MPAT into an index, creating locally relevant poverty lines, and ideas for future research. The article closes with a summary of lessons learned.