Élites in Omsk

A French sociologist provides a detailed analysis of the politics, economics, and political elite of Omsk oblast' in Western Siberia. Analysis covers oil politics, reactions to the August 1998 financial crisis, relations with Moscow, the role of entrepreneurs in politics, and the communist and nationalist oppositions. Focus is on the role of the governor and his relations with diverse political forces. The article also examines the gap between formal institutions and actual social and political practices.     

党在全国产业工人中成功建党的光辉范例——安源工运时期党组织建设发展的历程与现实启示

中国共产党成立后即在产业工人中建立党的组织,以领导产业工人运动。毛泽东、李立三、刘少奇等人在安源路矿创建了全国产业工人中的第一个党组织。安源党组织在领导和开展整个安源工运的历史进程中,发挥了党对工人阶级和工会组织的领导核心作用,卓有成效地开展了产业工人党组织的各项建设,引领安源路矿工人俱乐部的各项事业全面发展,最终率领数以万计的安源工人走上了中国革命的正确道路。通过近十年的探索和实践,党在产业工人中积累了较为丰富的、宝贵的建设发展的历史经验,至今仍具有重要的现实意义。     

Reciprocal Prospective Relationships Between Loneliness and Weight Status in Late Childhood and Early Adolescence

Adolescents who do not conform to weight ideals are vulnerable to disapproval and victimization from peers in school. But, missing from the literature is a prospective examination of weight status and feelings of loneliness that might come from those experiences. Using data from the Québec Longitudinal Study of Child Development, we filled that gap by examining the prospective associations between loneliness and weight status when the sample was aged 10–13 years. At ages 10, 12, and 13 years, 1042 youth (572 females; 92% from French speaking homes) reported on their loneliness and were weighed and measured. Family income sufficiency was included in our analyses given its relationship with weight status, but also its possible link with loneliness during early adolescence. The findings showed that (1) weight status and loneliness were not associated concurrently; (2) weight status predicted increases in loneliness from ages 12 to 13 years; and (3) loneliness predicted increases in weight from ages 12 to 13 years among female adolescents, but weight loss among male adolescents. The fact that loneliness was involved in weight gain for females suggests that interventions focused on reducing loneliness and increasing connection with peers during early adolescence could help in reducing obesity.     

Can We Make Accurate Long-term Predictions About Patterns of De-escalation in Offending Behavior?

This study consists of a comparative analysis of patterns of de-escalation between ages 17–18 and 32, based on data from two well-known prospective longitudinal studies, the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (a study of 411 working-class males in London) and the Montreal Two Samples Longitudinal Study (a sample of 470 adjudicated French-Canadian males). Analyses focus on within-individual change, with individuals serving as their own controls. In this regard, the magnitude of measured change is relative to the past degree of involvement in offending. These results are contrasted with predictors of between-individual differences in offending behavior at age 32. We investigate the respective roles of cognitive predispositions and social bonds in the prediction of patterns of de-escalation, and assess whether it is possible to make relatively long-term predictions (over a 15-year period) about offending in adulthood. Findings suggest that traditional measures of social bonds and cognitive predispositions measured at age 17–18 are generally weak predictors of de-escalation up to age 32. However, these measures are stronger predictors of between-individual differences in offending gravity. These findings highlight the difficulties in making accurate long-term predictions about changes in individual offending patterns early in the criminal career.

论恐怖主义的社会解构

作为一种极端的解构力量,恐怖主义对于国际秩序的威胁和损害不仅在于通过制造恶性事件以破坏国际社会的安全稳定,更在于借助销蚀主流价值而削弱国际秩序的观念基础。因此,国际社会有必要将评估和应对恐怖主义的社会解构纳入反恐治理的基本范畴。其中,以“伊斯兰国”组织为代表的恐怖主义力量进行社会解构的行为策略,可以分为以动摇当代领土政治、颠覆主流生命伦理和创设替代政治秩序为主要构成的重释再造,以动员恐怖袭击、滋长恐怖气氛和催生仇恨敌对为主要构成的“木马”植入,以“黑色经济”“黑色宣传”和“黑色技术”为主要构成的反向利用。目前,国际社会的反恐路径注重结合预防恐怖主义的内向防御逻辑与打击恐怖主义的外向进攻逻辑。沿着这一思路,国际社会可以综合采取加强反恐实践中的逆向战略、修正反恐叙事中的敌意话语和联通反恐治理中的不同系统等多种举措以应对恐怖主义的社会解构。     

The Public Service Mutual: Theories of Motivational Advantage

Public service mutuals are a form of employee‐led organization in which service workers spin out of the public sector to form “mutuals” that contract back with government to provide a service. This article draws on economic and psychological theory to demonstrate that mutuals can align both self‐interested and altruistic or public service motivations so as to serve the social good; moreover, by offering greater autonomy to public service professionals, mutuals are predicted to encourage energetic and persistent behaviors. In both cases, there is an advantage over alternative forms of organization such as the public sector bureaucracy, the shareholder‐owned private firm, or the nonprofit organization. The employee‐led mutual form, however, may not appeal to risk‐averse workers, its collective decision‐making systems may be inefficient, and external mechanisms may be required to ensure that organizational outcomes are always directed toward the social good.     

Changing arenas for agricultural climate change adaptation in Vietnam

Great changes are underway in how climate and agricultural risks are managed in Vietnam. Uncertainties are emerging regarding the role of the state in managing these risks and what this implies for assumptions regarding hoped-for climate change transformations. Local government control is waning in relation to the expanding roles of the private sector and the growing autonomy of farmers themselves. This article presents cases that illustrate the ways that farmers, private investors, and local authorities are responding to climate risk within roles relating to the other risks involving markets, food security, and pressures on common property resources.     

“一带一路”倡议下的中非海上安全合作

随着中国"一带一路"倡议的提出与推进,其涉及范围逐步向非洲大陆扩展,特别是习近平主席最终确定将"21世纪海上丝绸之路"穿越非洲大陆。在此背景下,中国政府有必要借助"2l世纪海上丝绸之路"扩展到非洲的机遇,在现有中非经贸、政治及安全合作的基础上把中非关系扩展到海洋领域。鉴于非洲多国政局并不稳定、非传统安全威胁加重,其中来自海上的非传统安全问题日渐突出等局面,在依托"2l世纪海上丝绸之路"扩展中非合作关系的过程中,中国需要与非洲相关国家加强各领域特别是海上的安全合作,并争取其他域外大国的良性参与,避免恶性竞争,共同创建一个"中非海上安全共同体",为包括中国、其他域外国家在内的各国在非洲经贸领域的合作及发展保驾护航。这样既能巩固和加强中非传统合作关系,推动其发展到新的层次,更好地保护中国在非洲的海外利益,也能避免与其他域外大国在非洲走向"零和博弈"。