Methodological considerations in the evaluation of offender interventions: the problem of attrition

Attrition from offender interventions presents methodological problems when the effectiveness of the intervention is under evaluation. This article proposes a treatment-received (TR) design, which incorporates one-to-one matching on criminogenic variables. This design permits the comparison of completer, noncompleter, and nonstarter groups with their paired comparisons and, hence, allows a more accurate evaluation of program completion and noncompletion effects. A sample of 173 offenders, referred to one of two general offending behavior cognitive skills programs within community settings, was matched one-to-one by criminogenic variables to offenders from an appropriate comparison group. Reconviction analyses were undertaken using intention to treat (ITT) analysis, TR analysis using the full comparison group, and TR analysis using matched comparison groups. The ITT design found no impact of group membership on reconviction. The TR designs, however, provided evidence of moderate effects of completion: For every three completers, five of the matched comparison group members were reconvicted. The analysis also suggested a noncompletion effect: Noncompleters were twice as likely as their matched comparison group to be reconvicted.     

Audience Costs and Interstate Crises: An Empirical Assessment of Fearon's Model of Dispute Outcomes

In a recent article, James Fearon advances an innovative approach to the study of interstate crises. He adds to the traditional view (that crisis outcomes are influenced by the balance of capability and the balance of resolve) the notion that domestic political audiences exert a strong influence over which state in a crisis is likely to achieve a successful outcome. His game-theoretic analysis yields a number of interesting hypotheses, which are tested in this study using data on militarized disputes, the structure of polities, and national capability. In general the results strongly support Fearon's model, though we find that relative national capabilities do tend to affect the outcomes of crises. This study highlights the importance of combining formal models of political events with large-N empirical tests.     

Fatal brodifacoum rodenticide poisoning: autopsy and toxicologic findings.

This report details the pathologic and toxicologic findings in the case of a 15-year-old girl who deliberately and fatally ingested brodifacoum, a commonly used rodenticide. The mechanism of death, massive pulmonary hemorrhage, has not been previously reported. Brodifacoum was quantitated in liver, spleen, lung, brain, bile, vitreous humor, heart blood, and femoral blood using HPLC with fluorescence detection. The highest brodifacoum concentrations were detected in bile (4276 ng/mL) and femoral blood (3919 ng/mL). No brodifacoum was detected in brain or vitreous humor. A brodifacoum concentration of 50 ng/g was observed in frozen liver while formalin fixed liver exhibited a concentration of 820 ng/g. A very high blood:liver brodifacoum concentration ratio suggested acute poisoning but the historical and pathologic findings suggested a longer period of anticoagulation. Though most cases of brodifacoum poisoning in humans are non-fatal, this compound can be deadly because of its very long half-life. Forensic pathologists and toxicologists should suspect superwarfarin rodenticides when confronted with cases of unexplained bleeding. Anticoagulant poisoning can mimic fatal leukemia or infectious diseases such as bacterial sepsis, rickettsioses, plague, and leptospirosis. A thorough death scene investigation may provide clues that a person has ingested these substances.     

B. Reviews: general

REGIERUNG UND VERWALTUNG DES VORDEREN ORIENTS IN ISLAMISCHER ZEIT. TEIL 2. Mit Beiträgen von D. SOURDEL und J. BOSCH VILÁ. (Handbuch der Orientalistik, Band VI: Geschichte der islamischen Länder, Abschnitt 5.) Leiden, Brill, 1988. vi, 152pp. Hfl.68.‐ (58.‐ to Series subscribers).

BRITAIN AND THE MIDDLE EAST: AN ECONOMIC HISTORY 1945–87. By FRANK BRENCHLEY. (Middle East Studies.) London, Lester Crook, 1989. 391pp.

AN IMPERIAL TWILIGHT. By SIR GAWAIN BELL. London, Lester Crook Academic Publishing, 1989. 266 pp. £15.95

JERUSALEM IN HISTORY. Edited by K.J. ASALI. London, Scorpion Publishing, 1989.

KING ABDULLAH, BRITAIN AND THE MAKING OF JORDAN. By MARY C. WILSON. Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1987. 289pp. £25.00.

A HOUSE OF MANY MANSIONS: THE HISTORY OF LEBANON RECONSIDERED. By KAMAL SALIBI. London, I.B. Tauris, 1988. 234pp. £17.95

THE UNMAKING OF PALESTINE. By W.F. ABBOUSHI. Wisbech, Menas Press, 1985. xi, 250pp. £21.50.

CHILDREN OF BETHANY: THE STORY OF A PALESTINIAN FAMILY. By SAID K. ABURISH. London, Tauris, 1988. 243pp. £14.95.

TOWARDS A PALESTINIAN ENTITY. By PAUL LALOR. London, Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1989. 35pp.

ISRAEL, PALESTINIANS AND THE INTIFADA: CREATING FACTS ON THE WEST BANK. By GEOFFREY ARONSON. Lonon, Kegan Paul International, 2nd ed., 1990. 376 pp.

SUDAN 1898–1989: THE UNSTABLE STATE. By PETER WOODWARD. London, Lester Crook, 1990. 273pp.

REVOLUTION AND FOREIGN POLICY: THE CASE OF SOUTH YEMEN 1967–1987. By FRED HALLIDAY. (Cambridge Middle East Library, 21.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1990. 316 pp.

THE MAKING OF CONTEMPORARY ALGERIA, 1830–1987: COLONIAL UPHEAVALS AND POST‐INDEPENDENCE DEVELOPMENT. By MAHFOUD BENNOUNE. (Cambridge Middle East Library series.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1988.

THE GULF WAR: ITS ORIGINS, HISTORY AND CONSEQUENCES. By JOHN BULLOCH and HARVEY MORRIS. London, Methuen 1989. 309 pp. £14.99.

THE GULF WAR. By EDGAR O'BALLANCE. London, Brasseys's Defence Publishers (Pergamon), 1988. 231pp. £17.95.

THE GULF AND INTERNATIONAL SECURITY: THE 1980S AND BEYOND. Edited by M.E. AHRARI. London, Macmillan, 1989. 210pp. £35.00.

THE GULF WAR. By MAJID KHADDURI. New York, Oxford University Press, 1988. 236pp. $24.95.

THE GULF WAR. Edited by HANS MAULL and OTTO PICK. New York, St. Martin's Press, 1989. ix, 203pp. £30.00.

THE FUTURE OF THE GULF. By PHILIP ROBINS. Aldershot, Royal Institute of International Affairs/Dartmouth Publishing Co., 1989. xvii, 145pp.

THE ISLAMIC IMPULSE. Edited by BARBARA FREYER STOWASSER. London and Sydney, Croom Helm, 1987. 329pp. £25.00.

ISLAM: STATE AND SOCIETY. Edited by KLAUS FERDINAND and MEHDI MOZAFFARI. London, Coarsen Press, 1988. 219pp. £6.50.

THE ISLAMIC POLITY AND POLITICAL LEADERSHIP; FUNDAMENTALISM, SECTARIANISM, AND PRAGMATISM. By MEHRAN TAMADONFAR. Boulder, San Francisco & London, Westview Press, 1989. 152pp.

RELIGION AND POLITICAL POWER. Edited by GUSTAVO BENAVIDES and M.W. DALY. Albany, State University of New York Press, 1989. 240pp.

FIRST YEAR ARABIC COURSE. 1: ANA AKTUB: PHONOLOGY AND SCRIPT. 2: MIN FADLAK: LISTENING AND SPEAKING. 3: MABRUK: READING AND WRITING GRAMMAR. By DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. [Leeds], University of Leeds, Department of Modern Arabic Studies, 1989. 3 parts (in 4 vols.), 4 cassettes. £25.00.

DAS KAPITEL INNA WA‐AHAWATUHA AUS DEM ‘MANHAG AS‐SALIK’ DES GRAMMATIKERS ABU HAYYAN AL‐GARNATI (1256–1344). BY ANNETTE BERGTER. (Arabische Texte und Studien, 2.) Hildesheim, Zürich, New York, Georg O1ms, 1988. 201pp. DM35.80.

SAUDI ARABIAN DIALECTS. By THEODORE PROCHAZKA. (Library of Arabic Linguistics, monograph 8.) London and New York, Kegan Paul International, 1988. xix, 240pp. + 13pp. (Arabic text).

LANGUAGE VARIATION AND CHANGE IN A MODERNISING ARAB STATE: THE CASE OF BAHRAIN. By CLIVE HOLES. (Library of Arabic Linguistics, 7.) London/New York, Kegan Paul International, 1987. xii, 210 pp. £45.00.

DER NEUARAMÄISCHE DIALEKT VON HERTEVIN (PROVINZ S??RT). By OTTO JASTROW. (Semitica Viva, 3.) Wiesbaden, Otto Harrassowitz, 1988. XXV, 234pp. 1 map. DM132.

SÜDOGHUSISCHE MATERIALIEN AUS AFGHANISTAN UND IRAN. By GERHARD DOERFER & WOLFRAM HESCHE. Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1989. 548pp. Maps, illustrations. DM236.‐

AL‐GHAZALI THE REMEMBRANCE OF DEATH AND THE AFTERLIFE: KITAB DHIKR AL‐MAWT WA‐MA BA'DAHU: BOOK XL OF THE REVIVAL OF THE RELIGIOUS SCIENCES IHYA’ ‘ULUM AL‐DIN. Translated with an introduction and notes by T.J. WINTER. Cambridge, Islamic Texts Society, 1989. 347pp. £12.95 (p/b), £35 (h/b).

BAHA’ AL‐DAN AL‐'AMILI AND HIS LITERARY ANTHOLOGIES. By CLIFFORD EDMUND BOSWORTH. (Journal of Semitic Studies, monograph 10.) Manchester, University of Manchester, 1989. vii, [3], 128pp.

SAND AND OTHER POEMS. By MAHMOUD DARWEESH. Selected and translated by RANA KABBANI. London, KPI, 1986. 77pp. £9.95.

MAWSU'AT AL‐ADAB AL‐DAHIK = AN ANTHOLOGY OF HUMOUR IN ARAB LITERATURE. By ‘ALI MURUWWA. London, Riad El‐Rayyes Books, 1987. 8 vols., 1293pp. £80.00

LE PATRIMOINE JOURNALISTIQUE DE TUNISIE. By MUSTAPHA CHELBI. Tunis, Editions Bouslama, 1986. 296pp. $6 or TD 3.500.

ADVICE ON THE ART OF GOVERNANCE: MAU'IZAH‐JAHANGIRI OF MUHAMMAD BAQIR NAJM‐I SANI: AN INDO‐ISLAMIC MIRROR FOR PRINCES. Persian Text with introduction, translation and notes by SAJIDA SULTANA ALVI. (SUNY series in Near Eastern studies.) Albany, State University of New York Press, 1989. x, 215pp.

THICKHEAD AND OTHER STORIES. By HALDUN TANER. Translated by GEOFFREY LEWIS. (UNESCO Collection of Representative Works.) London, Forest Books, 1988. 160pp. £8.95

AVERROES’ DE SUBSTANTIA ORBIS: A CRITICAL EDITION OF THE HEBREW TEXT WITH ENGLISH TRANSLATION AND COMMENTARY. By ARTHUR HYMAN. (Corpus Philosophorum Medii Aevi Academiarum Consociatarum Auspiciis et Consilio Editum, Opera Averrois, Medieval Academy Books, 96.) Cambridge, Mass., Medieval Academy of America and the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities, 1986. 156 pp. (English), 68 pp. (Hebrew).

FIVE ESSAYS ON ISLAMIC ART. By TERRY ALLEN. Sebastopol, Cal, Solipsist Press, 1988. x, 189pp. 113 black‐and‐white illustrations. $46.‐