Conspiracy Endorsement as Motivated Reasoning: The Moderating Roles of Political Knowledge and Trust

Given the potential political and social significance of conspiracy beliefs, a substantial and growing body of work examines the individual‐level correlates of belief in conspiracy theories and general conspiratorial predispositions. However, although we know much about the psychological antecedents of conspiracy endorsement, we know less about the individual‐level political causes of these prevalent and consequential beliefs. Our work draws from the extant literature to posit that endorsement of conspiracy theories is a motivated process that serves both ideological and psychological needs. In doing so, we develop a theory that identifies a particular type of person—one who is both highly knowledgeable about politics and lacking in trust—who is most susceptible to ideologically motivated conspiracy endorsement. Further, we demonstrate that the moderators of belief in conspiracy theories are strikingly different for conservatives and liberals.     

Closeness matters: monotonicity failure in IRV elections with three candidates

A striking attribute of instant runoff voting (IRV) is that it is subject to monotonicity failure—that is, getting more (first-preference) votes may result in defeat for a candidate who would otherwise have won and getting fewer votes may result in victory for a candidate who otherwise would have lost. Proponents of IRV have argued that monotonicity failure, while a mathematical possibility, is highly unlikely to occur in practice. This paper specifies the precise conditions under which this phenomenon arises in three-candidate elections and applies them to a number of large simulated data sets in order to get a sense of the likelihood of IRV’s monotonicity problem in varying circumstances. The basic finding is that the problem is significant in many circumstances and very substantial when IRV elections are closely contested by three candidates.     

Explaining the Divergence in Asylum Grant Rates among Immigration Judges: An Attitudinal and Cognitive Approach

In seeking to understand the variation in asylum grant rates by immigration judges (IJs), we apply a variation of the attitudinal model that we modify by incorporating a cognitive model of decision making, arguing that some pieces of information before IJs are treated objectively while others are treated subjectively. This model allows us to account for informational cues that influence decisions while assessing the impact of national interests and human rights conditions. We find that IJ policy predispositions play a dominant role, and that liberal IJs respond to applicant characteristics differently than conservatives, but also that the law constrains decision making.     

Comparing Gender Across Risk and Recidivism in Nonviolent Offenders

The purpose of this study was to examine whether gender differences exist in the rate, type, and general predictors of recidivism for nonviolent offenders. A total of 328 male and female Texas state jail offenders were matched on current offense, total number of arrests, age, and race. Contrary to previous findings, the results demonstrated no significant gender differences for recidivism rates, although significant gender differences were found for those who had reoffended with property and prostitution offenses. Similar to previous findings, age and total arrests were significant predictors for both male and female offenders. In the current sample, substance abuse was predictive for male offenders only. Although no gender differences were found across the recidivism predictors of static and criminogenic need, the protective factors of positive social support significantly predicted recidivism for female offenders and not male offenders. The current results add to the understanding of gender differences for the assessment, risk prediction, and treatment of offenders.     

Mobilizing Law in Latin America: An Evaluation of Black's Theory in Brazil

This research addresses two separate but related questions. First, to what extent are sociological theories proposed to explain legal behavior in Western societies applicable to non‐Western contexts? And second, to what degree is Black's theory of law generalizable, as he contends, “across time and space?” Our research merges these questions by exploring the applicability of Black's theory in a Latin American context. Data collected from a nationally representative survey in Brazil suggest support for Black's propositions regarding the impact of vertical, horizontal, cultural, and normative status on the likelihood of mobilizing the law, as well as the feasibility of using his framework for understanding legal behavior in non‐Western settings. Our discussion considers implications and directions for future analyses in both the Brazilian and cross‐cultural contexts.     

Barack Obama vs Bristol Palin: why the President’s sex education policy wins

The federal government has exponentially increased funding for abstinence‐only sex education over the last few decades, a position supported by former vice‐presidential candidate Sarah Palin’s daughter Bristol. Unfortunately, empirical research indicates that abstinence‐only education is ineffective and may have negative consequences for adolescents. Despite encouragement of abstinence, adolescents continue to engage in sexual relationships, indicating that a different approach to sex education should be supported. This situation raises a number of justice issues because it is important for the government to fund sex education curricula that instruct adolescents on how to protect themselves from pregnancy and STDs. The majority of parents also disagree with the federal funding of abstinence‐only education and support more comprehensive education. This indicates that funding abstinence‐only education is diametrically opposed to community sentiment. Federal funding of abstinence‐only sex education is also problematic as such policies violate a number of adolescents’ constitutional rights. Therefore, the federal government must revise its current sex education policies. President Obama’s proposed plan has the potential to overcome many of these issues associated with abstinence‐only education.