The Empirical Frequency of a Pivotal Vote

Public Choice - Some economic theories of voting suggestthat competition leads to close elections,and that election closeness is a factor forbringing voters to the polls. How often infact are civic...     

The Dynamics of Public Opinion on Cultural Policy Issues in the U.S., 1972–2010

This study investigates the dynamics of public opinion on cultural policy issues over the past four decades. We find collective opinions on many such issues follow the same path over time, driven by an underlying cultural policy mood (CPM). We use more than 2,000 survey marginals, nested in more than 200 time series, that reflect aggregate opinions in 16 cultural policy domains, across 38 years. Using a dynamic principal components method, the results show that since the early 1970s, CPM has moved steadily and consistently in a liberal direction. Over this period, changes in CPM have been tightly linked to changes in aggregate religiosity. Opinion on two notable cultural issues—the death penalty and abortion—do not follow CPM. While public opinion has grown increasingly anti-death-penalty for more than a decade, over roughly the same period it has become as pro-life on abortion as at any time since Roe v. Wade. The measurement of CPM provides evidence of a macro construct of cultural issues that includes opinion toward many, but not all, morality policies.     

Response Latency Methodology for Survey Research: Measurement and Modeling Strategies

In public opinion research, response latency is a measure ofattitude accessibility, which is the ease or swiftness withwhich an attitude comes to mind when a respondent is presentedwith a survey question. Attitude accessibility represents thestrength of the association in memory between an attitude objectand an evaluation of the object. Recent research shows thatattitude accessibility, as measured by response latency, castslight on a wide range of phenomena of public opinion and politicalbehavior. We discuss response latency methodology for surveyresearch and advocate the use of latent response latency timers(which are invisible both to respondents and interviewers) asa low cost, low-maintenance alternative to traditional methodsof measuring response latency in public opinion surveys. Weshow that with appropriate model specification latent responselatency timers may provide a suitable alternative to the morecomplicated and expensive interviewer-activated timers.