Understanding the development of fundamentalism

We use economic theory to examine the intensity of fundamentalist sects in which leaders work to enhance their followers’ observance level. We model three stylized situations under which fundamentalist groups function, examining the intensity of observance in each. We find that, under reasonable conditions, rivalry among fundamentalists makes them more extreme.     

Political representation and ethnic conflict in new democracies

Abstract.  This article is an exploratory analysis of the efficacy of parliamentary representation as a means to moderate ethnic conflict in new democracies. The authors agree with many others that the interests of a minority ethnic group are better protected when the group has access to decision makers, can block harmful government policies and veto potentially damaging decisions. Parliamentary representation, however, does not always allow for an effective representation of those who are not in government. Seats in the legislature may be of little use in a parliament where the executive dominates the policy process at all stages. This article focuses on the new democracies of Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union between 1990 and 2000. The authors use the number of parliamentary seats obtained by minority ethnic parties as their main independent variable and the MAR ethnic protest and rebellion scores as their dependent variables. In addition, they employ the system of government (i.e., parliamentary versus presidential) as a proxy indicator of the degree of influence that parliamentary parties have over decision making. A cross-section-time-series regression analysis shows that the ameliorative effect of parliamentary representation over ethnic conflict is stronger in those legislatures where the ethnic group has effective influence over decision making. It is also shown that representation within national parliaments has no ameliorative effects over violent secessionist conflicts. When the ethnic minority's demands are too radical, parliamentary representation is simply an inadequate instrument.     

On the value of formal assessment of uncertainty in regulatory analysis

The US Office of Management and Budget introduced in 2003 a new requirement for the treatment of uncertainty in Regulatory Impact Analyses (RIAs) of proposed regulations, requiring agencies to carry out a formal quantitative uncertainty assessment regarding a regulation’s benefits and costs if either is expected to reach $1 billion annually. Despite previous use in other contexts, such formal assessments of uncertainty have rarely been employed in RIAs or other regulatory analyses. We describe how formal quantitative assessments of uncertainty – in particular, Monte Carlo analyses – can be conducted, we examine the challenges and limitations of such analyses in the context of RIAs, and we assess how the resulting information can affect the evaluation of regulations. For illustrative purposes, we compare Monte Carlo analysis with methods typically used in RIAs to evaluate uncertainty in the context of economic analyses carried out for the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Nonroad Diesel Rule, which became effective in 2004.     

European Community politics and electoral representation: Evidence from the 1989 European Elections Study

Abstract: In spite of the fact that the European elections were, in most countries, not fought over the issue of Community building and European integration, this article shows that only a few parties take positions towards the Community which are clearly out of line with the average position of their voters. The parties involved are the orthodox-Protestant combination in the Netherlands, the Workers Party in Ireland, the Italian MSI, and the greens in Germany, the Netherlands, Ireland and, to a somewhat lesser extent, Luxembourg. The discrepancies between these parties'positions and the attitudes of their electorates - in combination with their generally successful electoral performance - underscores what is known from other analyses: Parties do not acquire votes on the basis of European issue concerns, but on the basis of national political concerns. The result of the European elections may still, however, be considered as an ex post facto , endorsement and legitimation of parties'policies towards European integration.     

检测体液中氰含量的荧光光度法研究

本文报道了应用取代反应检测体液中氰含量的荧光光度法。探讨了检测的具体方法和有关条件对检测的影响。检测了正常人血、尿液和唾液中氰含量,并检测了小鼠氰化物染毒死亡后血中氰含量。研究表明,本法不但可检测体液中致死量的氰化物含量,亦可检测体液中正常氰含量。     

Knowledge and attitudes about AIDS: A comparison of public high school students,incarcerated delinquents,and emotionally disturbed adolescents

This study compared AIDS knowledge and attitudes in public high school students (N=167), incarcerated delinquents (N=166), and emotionally disturbed (SED) adolescents (N=151). The response measure was a 50-item Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (AIDS) questionnaire that was previously used by Bell et al., in their 1991 study of learning disabled adolescents. Although AIDS knowledge was moderately high in all three groups, widespread misunderstandings about disease transmission and awareness of high-risk groups and practices were noted. Knowledge scores were significantly higher in the public school sample than in the SED adolescents; moreover, they tended to be slightly higher (p<0.10) than the delinquent group as well. Teenagers with the severest emotional problems were by far the least informed. Age and race were also predictive of AIDS knowledge. Other results showed that delinquents were more permissive in their attitudes about sex, more inclined to disdain safe sex practices, and more likely to feel threatened by high-risk groups as well as powerless to protect themselves against AIDS. Generally speaking, the findings extend the work of other investigators on the needs for AIDS education in adolescents. The need is especially urgent in delinquent and emotionally disturbed youth who may require a more comprehensive intervention because of their greater knowledge deficits, propensity for high-risk practices, and tendency to deny or underestimate their own vulnerability.Received Ph.D. in clinical psychology from the University of Utah in Salt Lake City. Research interests include health behavior change and the treatment of anxiety and habit disorders. To whom correspondence should be addressed.Received M.A. degree in psychology from the University of the Pacific. Research interests include health behavior change and medical epidemiology.Received Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand. Research interests are in child and adolescent psychiatry and the delivery of mental health services.Received Ph.D. in biostatistics from the Medical College of Virginia. Research interests are in general linear models.