Distinguishing accurate from inaccurate eyewitness identifications with an optional deadline procedure

Abstract

Two experiments examined the efficacy of an optional deadline lineup procedure for distinguishing correct from incorrect eyewitness identification decisions. The procedure involved briefly presenting the lineup, removing the lineup from view, then giving participants the option of either making an identification decision or viewing the lineup again. When compared with participants operating under a forced deadline (i.e. forced to respond after the brief presentation) or standard lineup instructions, the optional deadline procedure identified participants with an impressive probability of having made a correct identification when used with target-present lineups and biased instructions. With unbiased instructions, the optional deadline produced clear discrimination between correct and incorrect identification decisions for choosers and, importantly, also for non-choosers. Possible strategies for improving the efficacy of the procedure are suggested.     

The Intelligence Requirement of International Mediation

This article explores the intelligence requirement of international mediation, a topic that is ignored in both the literature on conflict resolution and the literature on intelligence. A mediator's strategies and tactics ought to be informed by a deep understanding of the parties' internal calculations about the conflict and its resolution. Intelligence is needed to gain this understanding because the parties typically do not reveal their sensitive deliberations to outsiders. United Nations mediation teams should have a monitoring and analysis unit that endeavours to meet this need and reduce the ignorance that commonly afflicts international mediation.     

Validation and implementation of the PowerPlex 16 BIO System STR multiplex for forensic casework

The PowerPlex 16 BIO multiplex short tandem repeat (STR) system contains the 13 CODIS loci (FGA, TPOX, D8S1179, vWA, D18S51, D21S11, TH01, D3S1358, CSF1PO, D16S539, D7S820, D13S317, and DS5S818), plus two pentanucleotide repeat loci (Penta D and Penta E) and the sex-identifying locus. Amelogenin. The PowerPlex 16 BIO System is optimized for use with the Hitachi FMBIO gel imaging systems. A consortium of seven independent laboratories collaborated to perform the studies defined by the FBI standards for performing a developmental validation, including the evaluation of sample concordance, percent stutter determination, nonprobative casework, precision, sensitivity, mixture determination, effect of substrates, the impact of environmental insults, and species specificity. All samples tested for concordance were consistent except for one sample from the Virginia Division of Forensic Science database that displayed discordance at D13S317, a locus whose primer sequence was altered. Stutter values were comparable to those of other STR multiplex systems, the precision was comparable to other multiplexes analyzed by gel electrophoresis, the DNA profiles were unchanged by the substrate upon which the blood samples were placed, and the nonprobative casework samples re-typed for the PowerPlex 16 BIO System were consistent with previous typing results. When greater than 0.125 ng of DNA was placed into the PowerPlex 16 BIO System amplification reaction, a full profile was generated by all laboratories. The mixture study results were comparable to those reported for other multiplex systems, the environmental study demonstrated a loss of larger molecular weight loci when samples were incubated at elevated temperatures for a prolonged period of time, and the only notable cross species hybridization was observed with primate DNA samples. This extensive validation work performed demonstrates that the PowerPlex 16 BIO System provides STR data of a quality comparable with other PowerPlex STR multiplex kits as well as other widely used STR multiplexes and is thus suitable for evidentiary casework analysis as well as database sample profiling.     

Public opinion and regulatory behavior

This paper measures the responsiveness of a public agency to changes in public opinion. In particular, it shows that the number of compulsory directives issued by the Federal Aviation Administration to the airline industry (a) rises following an increase in public concern over aviation safety, as measured by the amount of newspaper coverage accorded the issue; (b) falls following a presumed increase in industry opposition to such directives, as measured by the number of aircraft accidents that occurred in previous periods; (c) does not increase following an increase in the number of safety defects discovered, as measured by the number of accidents and flights occurring in earlier periods.     

How elections matter: A study of U.S. senators

Policy representation implies not only congruence between constituent and representative preferences, but also the ability of representatives to perceive and adjust to changing constituent preferences. This paper examines the extent of such representation among U.S. senators. It shows that a senator's voting behavior strongly affects his chances of election, but that senators demonstrate only a limited ability to adapt to changing constituent preferences.