The Return of the Middle Kingdom in a Post-American World

Not long after the conclusion of the Beijing Summer Olympics in 2008, I was invited by my friend Eric Xu, an editor at Shanghai's largest paper, The Xinmin Evening News , to attend a seminar in Shanghai with some of China's top philosophers and scholars. They had gathered to assess the "powershift" in China's self-image and in global esteem as a result of such a successful execution of the games. The following short essay reports on their views and puts them in historical perspective.     

Health facility characteristics and the decision to seek care

Utilisation of healthcare facilities is low in many developing areas. One possible explanation is that treatment costs, in time or money, are high. Another is that parents perceive treatment benefits to be low. We combine Philippines DHS data with a subsequent facilities survey in order to examine these issues with respect to treatment for respiratory infections and diarrhoea in young children. Controlling statistically for the selectivity of the initiating illness, we find that the staffing level of nearby health facilities is a determinant of the probability that parents take their ill children for curative care.     

Evaluating impacts for competing land use alternatives

Public sector decisions concerning land use can benefit from a consistent accounting of economic values represented in alternative uses. While conventional economic valuation may not represent all interests bearing on optimal land use, ignorance or misuse of economic principles in the decision process may lead to socially undesirable outcomes. We make use of an impact assessment technique based on the U.S. Forest Service Micro IMPLAN model to compile and measure the economic consequences of alternative agricultural land use. This approach provides consistent measurement of economic impacts based on quantified linkages among the different sectors represented in Hood River County, Oregon. An orchard and a golf course are compared in terms of the magnitude and distribution of direct, indirect, and induced economic impacts arising from alternative uses of a designated land parcel. While the results are not generalizable to specific applications, the approach highlights the key economic variables that generate economic benefits in alternative uses.     

The unintended consequences of kingpin strategies: kidnap rates and the Arellano-Félix Organization

Kingpin strategies— the targeting of the top-levels of terrorist or drug trafficking organization hierarchies— has become a centerpiece of US and Mexican efforts to combat drug trafficking. This study addresses the unintended consequences of these strategies by assessing the impact of the arrest or deaths of Arellano Felix Organization leaders on kidnap and homicide levels from the late 1990’s to 2011. Based on the study, the arrest of important AFO “lieutenants” increased kidnap rates. Arrests or the deaths of organization “kingpins” did not result in increased homicides or kidnappings, if respected successors were ready to fill leadership vacuums. When leadership succession was in question, the arrest of “kingpins” did result in internecine conflict and thus increased homicide and kidnapping rates. Following internecine conflict, kidnap and homicide rates dropped, but not to pre-conflict levels. This is likely attributable to the use of kidnapping and homicide as a dispute resolution mechanism in the growing Tijuana consumer drug market.     

From Well-Having to Well-Being

To raise the notion of frugality in the midst of the greatest consumer boom in economic history may seem wildly out of place. But if globalization only half succeeds in lifting many more millions into the middle class in this century, by necessity frugality will become a virtue.