The communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace: a perspective from the efficient market hypothesis

This study measures patterns following a terrorist attack, from the perspective of market efficiency, to determine the communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace. The Efficient Market Hypothesis postulates that asset prices fully reflect all available information. An important implication is that, because market price changes are determined by new information (or variations in discount rates), it would be highly difficult to “beat the market” with expert stock selection or market timing. Overall, we found that, based on mixed results, terrorist attacks do not lead to a distinguishable pattern in the financial marketplace. Nevertheless, drawing on the Yale Model of Persuasion, these results suggest that terrorists are effective in their communicative goals, and they do lead to a compelling pattern in the proportion of negative returns on the day of the attack. More precisely, terrorists are able to communicate their message on a global scale, thereby resulting in investors adjusting their estimates of value downward. While a possible price correction pattern was found, the lack of statistical analysis performed on the variables, to a certain degree of significance, is a limitation of this study that ultimately renders the results of the study inconclusive.

     

We Are All Victims: Questionable Content and Collective Victimisation in the Digital Age

Asian Journal of Criminology - Traditionally, the idea of being a victim is associated with a crime, accident, trickery or being duped. With the advent of globalisation and rapid growth in the...     

A Structural Modelling Approach to Predict Adolescent Offending Behaviour from Family,School and Community Factors

It seems undeniable that immediate social contexts exert an important influential role on adolescent behavioural adjustment. Research thus far has found that certain family, school and community/neighbourhood environment characteristics may influence a youth’s involvement in risk activities such as antisocial behaviour and drug use, and even delinquent behaviour. However, the mechanisms that link these characteristics to such behaviours have not yet been thoroughly analysed and prior research has focused mainly on adult populations. The objective of this study was to analyse the joint contribution of specific factors, deriving from family, school and society, which have an effect on levels of drug consumption, antisocial and offending behaviour, in a sample of 2528 youths (aged 10 to 16). In particular, in accounting for involvement in risk activities and ultimately in offending behaviour, we examined interactions among the following variables: living in a disadvantaged community, quality of relationship with parents, distrust in local police, attitude to social norms, and rejection of and from school (truancy, suspension and expulsion). A structural equation model was calculated to account for these interactions, which revealed patterns of influence with important practical implications related to social policies on risk behaviours in adolescence.     

The dual myths of ‘narco‐terrorism’: How myths drive policy

When held up to the reality and complexity of the relationships between drug traffickers and insurgents, the concept of ‘narco‐terrorism’ falls short of serving as a useful explanatory device. Properly analyzed, ‘narco‐terrorism’ emerges as a political myth based on a stereotypic view of the Andean drug trade, peasant insurgency and the relationships between them. The myth of ‘narco‐terrorism’ coincided with the Latin American policy interests of the Reagan and the Bush administrations. Ironically, the myth's transparency served the policy interests of the opponents of these administrations, who used it to further their own politicized agendas ‐ creating yet another myth. This research traces the evolution and politicization of this concept and shows how it has hindered both scholarship and policy making. The research confirms, in part, earlier work of Australian criminologist Grant Wardlaw and American expert on the Andean drug trade, Rensselaer Lee.     

Getting CIA History Right: The Informal Partnership Between Agency Historians and Outside Scholars

The common task of all historians is to endeavour to present history as accurately and objectively as possible despite gaps in the record or a paucity of evidence. Intelligence historians face particular challenges in making sense of what too often is history deliberately shrouded. Staff historians of the Central Intelligence Agency operate mostly in the secret world and yet rely on the fine work of ‘outside’ historians. There is in effect a largely unstated, certainly informal, but absolutely crucial partnership between CIA historians on the ‘inside’ and dedicated scholars on the ‘outside’. It is not too much to say, in fact, that accurate and objective history about the CIA is possible only through this informal partnership.     

Introduction

The aim of this collection is to analyse the nature of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and to consider its future. Given that regional integration is not simply an outcome but a complex and multidimensional process, the prognostic assessments of ASEAN made in this volume are drawn up from examinations of the Association??s historical background, economic interplays, political culture, diplomatic norms, institutional governance, and geopolitical surroundings. Reflecting on the conception and shifting dynamics of ASEAN, the essays expound major pressure points on the Association??s ambitious agenda for building ??one community?? with ??one vision?? and ??one identity?? among its members, and for staying in the ??driver??s seat?? of all regional initiatives in the wider East Asia.     

Coalitions: Beyond the Politics of Centrality?

This article examines the character of oppositional movements in the GDR in the light of post‐Wende revelations of Stasi infiltration. We look at responses by members of the alternative culture to accusations that their work during the GDR was rendered ineffective by the Stasi and is consequently of little importance to a historical reappraisal of the GDR. Whilst they were clearly aware of the Stasi, whose influence did have an effect, our evidence suggests that this influence was not total. Current debates about the Stasi are creating an unbalanced view of the actual situation in the GDR before 1989 in that the Stasi is being portrayed as an organisation of almost Orwellian Big Brother proportions. Our article attempts to deconstruct this paradigm and argues that the complicity of the few with the MfS should not invalidate the activities of the majority of those involved in the alternative culture.