Researching Fact Checking: Present Limitations and Future Opportunities

The fact checking field has grown tremendously in the past decade, as has academic interest in the practice, with dozens of studies testing the effectiveness of corrections. However, research on fact checking is not yet optimised to help fact checkers address the global challenges of mis- and disinformation. In this paper, we review the literature on fact checking’s effects and identify two key gaps. First, we discuss the limited diversity and external validity of existing studies, which have overwhelmingly been conducted in Western countries and under artificial, experimental conditions. Second, we argue that research has narrowly focussed on the short-term, corrective effects of individual fact checks, largely ignoring the multiple ways fact checkers conceive of their impact. Thus, research has overlooked the cultural and systemic changes that fact checkers pursue. We conclude by highlighting opportunities for further research and for improving communication between academics and fact checkers.     

University-Industry Cooperation in the Context of the European Framework Programmes

This paper investigates the characteristics of university-industry collaboration in a large set of research joint ventures (RJVs) established in the context of the European Framework Programmes over a period of fourteen years. The share of university-industry RJVs is found to have gradually increased. Such RJVs have tended to be relatively larger in terms of participant numbers. Universities from peripheral European regions have been rather active in the examined RJVs. Firms cooperate with Universities to exploit research synergies leading to cost savings or improvements in R&D productivity, keeping up with major technological developments, and sharing R&D cost. Firms reported that the most important benefit from such collaboration has been the positive impact on their knowledge base.     

What Terrorist Leaders Want: A Content Analysis of Terrorist Propaganda Videos

In recent years, a growing body of empirical research suggests that indiscriminate violence against civilian targets tends to carry substantial political risks compared to more selective violence against military targets. To better understand why terrorist groups sometimes attack politically suboptimal targets, scholars are increasingly adopting a principal-agent framework where the leaders of terrorist groups are understood as principals and lower level members as agents. According to this framework, terrorist leaders are thought to behave as essentially rational political actors, whereas lower level members are believed to harbor stronger non-political incentives for harming civilians, often in defiance of leadership preferences. We test this proposition with an original content analysis of terrorist propaganda videos. Consistent with the principal–agent framework, our analysis demonstrates statistically that terrorist leaders tend to favor significantly less indiscriminate violence than their operatives actually commit, providing unprecedented insight into the incentive structure of terrorist leaders relative to the rank-and-file.     

The relationship between corruption and income inequality in U.S. states: evidence from a panel cointegration and error correction model

We investigate the causality between corruption and income inequality within a multivariate framework using a panel data set of all 50 U.S. states over the period 1980 to 2004. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test by Pedroni (Oxf. Bull. Econ. Stat. 61:653–670, 1999; Econom. Theory 20:597–627, 2004) indicates that in the long run corruption and the unemployment rate have a positive and statistically significant impact on income inequality while a negative impact is found for real personal income per capita, education, and unionization rate. The Granger-causality results associated with a panel vector error correction model indicate both short-run and long-run bidirectional causality between corruption and income inequality.     

The listen to me project: Creating lasting changes in voice and participation for children in care through a youth-led project

In this article, we present the results from a youth-led project on the voices and participation of children in state care in Ontario, Canada. The purpose of this project was for youth to share their voice about what they wish child protection workers and agencies could do to improve their experiences within the child protection system. Many youth in care in Canada and internationally report that their voices are not heard and that they are not involved in decisions involving their care. Seven themes were extracted from this voices of youth project asking child welfare workers and agencies to listen to [them] and believe [them], keep [them] informed and be honest, involve [them] in decisions, support [them], keep [them] connected,; ignite [their] passions, and don't give up on [them]. Suggestions from the youth involved in this project are offered on ways to create true and meaningful change in child welfare.     

Predicting Negative Life Outcomes from Early Aggressive–Disruptive Behavior Trajectories: Gender Differences in Maladaptation Across Life Domains

Transactional theories of development suggest that displaying high levels of antisocial behavior early in life and persistently over time causes disruption in multiple life domains, which in turn places individuals at risk for negative life outcomes. We used longitudinal data from 1,137 primarily African American urban youth (49.1% female) to determine whether different trajectories of aggressive and disruptive behavior problems were associated with a range of negative life outcomes in young adulthood. General growth mixture modeling was used to classify the youths’ patterns of aggressive–disruptive behavior across elementary school. These trajectories were then used to predict early sexual activity, early pregnancy, school dropout, unemployment, and drug abuse in young adulthood. The trajectories predicted the number but not type of negative life outcomes experienced. Girls with the chronic high aggression–disruption (CHAD) pattern experienced more negative outcomes than girls with consistently moderate levels, who were at greater risk than nonaggressive–nondisruptive girls. Boys with CHAD and boys with an increasing pattern had equal levels of risk for experiencing negative outcomes. The findings are consistent with transactional models of development and have implications for preventive interventions.     

A Comment on Diagnostic Tools for Counterfactual Inference

Alexander Michaelides London School of Economics, Department of Economics, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, UK e-mail: a.michaelides{at}lse.ac.uk We evaluate two diagnostic tools used to determine if counterfactualanalysis requires extrapolation. Counterfactuals based on extrapolationare model dependent and might not support empirically validinferences. The diagnostics help researchers identify thosecounterfactual "what if" questions that are empirically plausible.We show, through simple Monte Carlo experiments, that thesediagnostics will often detect extrapolation, suggesting thatthere is a risk of biased counterfactual inference when thereis no such risk of extrapolation bias in the data. This is becausethe diagnostics are affected by what we call the n/k problem:as the number of data points relative to the number of explanatoryvariables decreases, the diagnostics are more likely to detectthe risk of extrapolation bias even when such risk does notexist. We conclude that the diagnostics provide too severe atest for many data sets used in political science. Author's note: We thank Komei Fukuda, Don Green, Alan Gerber,and Jasjeet Sekhon for their generous help, Mike Kane for assistancewith R programming, and five anonymous referees for constructivecomments.     

Broken Promises or Selective Memory Planning? A National Picture of HOPE VI Plans and Realities

Government efforts to redevelop public housing often face a contentious gap between plans and realities. This paper compares 2014 U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) administrative data on housing unit counts and unit mixes for all 260 developments receiving Housing Opportunities for People Everywhere (HOPE VI) revitalization grants with data provided in the original HOPE VI grant award announcements. We find that HUD records undercount approximately 11,500 once-proposed units. The biggest changes were a 29% decline in the number of market-rate units and a 40% decline in homeownership units. The chief shortfall during implementation, therefore, was not with public housing units (although the HOPE VI program as a whole did trigger an overall decline of such units). To help elucidate the dynamics at play when the unit allocation shifts between initial grant award and implemented project, we include a series of five brief case studies that illustrate several types of unit change. Interviews with HUD staff confirm the baseline for record-keeping shifted during implementation once project economic feasibility became clearer; adherence to original unit mix proposals remained secondary. HUD prioritized its accountability to Congress and developers over its public law accountability to build the projects initially proposed to local community residents. Although these changes have sometimes been interpreted as broken promises, it is even clearer that HUD’s monitoring system exemplifies what we call Selective Memory Planning: when planners and policy makers, willfully or not, selectively ignore elements of previous plans in favor of new plans that are easier to achieve.     

Do State Affordable Housing Appeals Systems Backfire? A Natural Experiment

Several U.S. states have supplemented traditional judicial review of local land-use regulation with a state affordable housing appeals system (SAHAS). Empirical evidence indicates that a SAHAS can increase the proportion of housing that is affordable to low- and moderate-income households. But some scholars have suggested that an effective SAHAS will ultimately backfire, by producing incentives to prohibit market-rate development, thereby rendering a state’s housing stock less affordable overall. We test this “backfire” hypothesis with a longitudinal comparison of single-family housing development from 1980 through 2007 in municipalities located in adjacent areas of Connecticut (which adopted a SAHAS in 1989) and New York State (which did not have a SAHAS during the study period). Contrary to the predictions of the backfire hypothesis, our fixed effects regression indicates that Connecticut's SAHAS was associated with increased single-family development relative to the New York State jurisdictions in our sample. This result suggests that a SAHAS can increase below-market rate and mixed-income development without impeding market-rate development.