Forecasting Errors in the Averseness of Apologizing

Apologizing is often seen as the appropriate response after a transgression for perpetrators. Yet, despite the positive effects that apologies elicit after situations of conflict, they are not always delivered easily. We argue that this is due—at least in part—to perpetrators overestimating the averseness of apologizing, thus committing a forecasting error. Across two laboratory experiments and one autobiographical recall study, we demonstrate that perpetrators overestimate the averseness they will experience when apologizing compared to the averseness they experience when they actually apologize. Moreover, we show that this effect is driven by a misconstrual of the effects of an apology. Perpetrators overestimate the potentially negative effects of apologizing while simultaneously underestimating the potentially positive effects of apologizing. This forecasting error may have a negative effect on the initiation of the reconciliation process, due to perpetrators believing that apologizing is more averse than it actually is.     

Intergenerational transmission of longevity is not affected by other familial factors: evidence from 16,905 Dutch families from Zeeland, 1812-1962

ABSTRACT

Studies have shown that long-lived individuals seem to pass their survival advantage on to their offspring. Offspring of long-lived parents had a lifelong survival advantage over individuals without long-lived parents, making them more likely to become long-lived themselves. We test whether the survival advantage enjoyed by offspring of long-lived individuals is explained by environmental factors. 101,577 individuals from 16,905 families in the 1812–1886 Zeeland cohort were followed over time. To prevent that certain families were overrepresented in our data, disjoint family trees were selected. Offspring was included if the age at death of both parents was known. Our analyses show that multiple familial resources are associated with survival within the first 5 years of life, with stronger maternal than paternal effects. However, between ages 5 and 100 both parents contribute equally to offspring’s survival chances. After age 5, offspring of long-lived fathers and long-lived mothers had a 16-19% lower chance of dying at any given point in time than individuals without long-lived parents. This survival advantage is most likely genetic in nature, as it could not be explained by other, tested familial resources and is transmitted equally by fathers and mothers.     

The Russian Revolution at 100: the Soviet experience in the mirror of permanent counterrevolution

Abstract

The Russian Revolution is analysed in this paper in the context of a conjuncture dominated by counterrevolution. Beginning with the repression of the 1850s, a process of permanent counterrevolution has become the over-determining trend of social-political history. The Russian Revolution was subject to several distinct aspects of this process. First was external counterrevolution, the attack on it from the outside. Whilst Anglo-America was the main bulwark organising it, the Nazi/fascist counterrevolution and invasion of the USSR was an example of counterrevolution that ran out of control and ended in a defeat in Europe that was only overcome through a long and risky Cold War. Internal counterrevolution affected the Russian Revolution as part of a longer process of adjusting socialist theory to successive defeats. In the Soviet case, Socialism in One Country was the decisive mutation in this respect and must be viewed as the decisive component of the triumph of counterrevolution. After the war, Anglo-America adjusted the counterrevolutionary strategy to surgical excisions of socialist tendencies until the USSR, isolated and ideologically exhausted, collapsed. Even so, several of its legacies continue to be relevant, notably the nationality policy and internationalism. Also, today’s information revolution casts a new light on the Soviet planning experience that must be studied now that capitalism is slipping into a systemic crisis.     

Network relationships and standard adoption: Diffusion effects in transnational regulatory networks

The soft law measures that transnational regulatory networks produce have become increasingly important in regulating cross-border market activity. However, domestic agencies vary considerably in terms of the rate by which these soft law measures are adopted, and the ways in which they spread across jurisdictions are not well understood. This article argues that existing theoretical explanations referring to socialization or power dynamics have a specific network-structural pattern associated with them, and that longitudinal network analysis can be used to test their hypothesized effects. In particular, we study the widespread adoption of the International Organization of Securities Commissions’ (IOSCO) Multilateral Memorandum of Understanding (MMoU). Based on a longitudinal dataset (2002–15) of the inter-agency relationships between securities regulators (n = 109), we use Stochastic Actor-Oriented Models (SAOM) to predict the rate at which transnational standards are adopted by domestic agencies. The results indicate that standard adoption is contagious in the network of securities regulators.     

Negotiating democracy with authoritarian regimes. EU democracy promotion in North Africa

ABSTRACT

In order to better understand the dynamics of international cooperation on democracy promotion with authoritarian regimes, this article looks into the processes and results of negotiations on democracy (promotion) between the European Union (EU) and two of its North African neighbours (Morocco, Tunisia) in the decade leading up to the Arab uprisings. Asking if, how, and to what effect the EU and its Mediterranean partners have negotiated issues related to democracy promotion, it analyses official documents issued on the occasion of their respective association council meetings in 2000-2010. It shows that partners have indeed addressed these issues since the early 2000s, however, without engaging in substantive exchanges. Most of the time, conflicts have been neither directly addressed nor resolved. Where there are traces of actual negotiations leading to an agreement, these are clearly based on a logic of bargaining rather than arguing. These findings challenge the picture of harmony and cooperation between the EU and Morocco. Furthermore, they point to the low quality of these exchanges which reinforces the dilemma of international democracy promotion in cooperation with authoritarian regimes.     

XANADU: THE PLEASURE DOME

正The actual site of Xanadu can be found a hop, a skip, a train ride or a 5.5-hour-long northbound car journey from Beijing, in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. Xanadu was the first capital of Mongol ruler Kublai Khan, Emperor Shizu of the Yuan Dynasty(1271-1368) and grandson of Genghis Khan.     

Chez Guangdong

Ever the food-oriented society, Chinese compliments of yore include such gems like "you've fattened up," indicating you've been eat-ing a lot, indicating life's been treating you pretty well. In 2021, the aforementioned pretty much denotes you've been stuffing your face; gracing any modern (fe)male with these words, usually ends in a crash diet—or two. Having said that, not even the highest-flying resident of China will let these words come between them. And their Cantonese nibbles. Sharpen your knives because here are the parts unknown of Chez Guangdong.     

The Sole of a City

Fashion fact #1: The earliest pair of leather shoes in existence in China is a 4,000-year-old pair of boots made from sheep hide, worn by a mummified female corpse discovered in the ruins of the ancient kingdom of Loulan, in the deserts of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. Fast forward to contemporary China. As I was on a flight from Shanghai soaring back into the capital that is Beijing, also the place I call "home," I wondered… What actually makes up the soul of a mega metropolis like the aforementioned dragons? Then I real-ized… The answer had been in front of me all along: shoes. Indeed, footwear. We're talking the sole of a city. High heels, Doc Martens, sneakers… Here's a step-by-step guide to the footprint of a mega city --—the Beijing Boots vs. the Shanghai Stilettos. Fashion: There's a whole lot more to it than meets the eye.