Forecasting the Effectiveness of Policy Implementation Strategies

Primarily, policies are intended to address economic, social and environmental problems. When implementing a policy, any government will be faced with the decision as to what strategy to adopt in order to meet the objectives set out by the policy in the most cost effective way. Several such Policy Implementation Strategies (PIS) may be available, making such a decision not so straightforward. With limited funds available, such a decision has particular importance for budgeting. This paper proposes forecasting PIS effectiveness as a decision support tool. The nature of Structured Analogies (SA) is considered suitable for generating such forecasts. A simpler version of SA, semi-structured analogies (S-SA), where experts do not need to recollect the exact outcome of analogies, is tested. Empirical findings suggest that in the hands of non-experts, the S-SA approach improves forecast accuracy when compared to unaided judgment. Accuracy improves further when forecasts are produced in groups.     

Space and Security: The Emerging Role of Europe

Space systems have grown increasingly integral to the United States' national security in the post-Cold War era. The diplomatic and military leverage that space capabilities can provide is not going unnoticed by other countries. Since the collapse of the USSR, the United States has enjoyed a near-absolute dominance in space activities. Only the civilian European space program has mounted any sort of technical challenge to the United States, with little interest devoted to space military activities, but the period of US hegemony in the space military domain might come to an end. In recent years the European Union (EU) and its member states have taken numerous steps towards designing and assembling a Common Foreign and Security Policy and a coherent European Security and Defence Policy. Furthermore, several important steps toward linking security needs and space capabilities have been taken by the tandem European Union–European Space Agency and other relevant institutions. Space is now seen as an essential asset for European integration and for non-dependence in the current geo-strategic context, since space-based systems and derived information can bring necessary capabilities for autonomous decision making. The development of an integrated European space capability for security is at an early stage, but it is an ongoing process presenting some opportunities to enhance European independence and security.     

PRICE DISCRIMINATION UNDER EC COMPETITION LAW: ANOTHER ANTITRUST DOCTRINE IN SEARCH OF LIMITING PRINCIPLES?

The main objective of this article is to shed light on the compatibilityof price discrimination with EC competition law. We offer ananalytical framework which distinguishes between different categoriesof price discrimination depending on their effects on competition.Our framework suggests that different tests are needed to assessthe lawfulness of price discrimination practices under EC competitionlaw. A related objective of the article is to show that Article82(c), the main Treaty provision dealing with price discrimination,should only be applied to the limited circumstances where anon-vertically integrated dominant firm price discriminatesbetween customers with the effect of placing one or severalof them at a competitive disadvantage vis-a-vis other customers(secondary line injury price discrimination). In contrast, Article82(c) should not be applied to pricing measures designed toharm the dominant firm's competitors (first line-injury pricediscrimination) or to partition the single market across nationallines.     

female sex tourism: a contradiction in terms?

This paper argues that the ‘double-standard’ applied to male and female tourists’ sexual behaviour reflects and reproduces weaknesses in existing theoretical and commonsense understandings of gendered power, sexual exploitation, prostitution and sex tourism. It looks at how essentialist constructions of gender and heterosexuality blur understandings of sexual exploitation and victimhood and argues that racialized power should also be considered to explore the boundaries between commercial and non-commercial sex. This paper is based on ethnographic research on sexual–economic exchanges between tourist women and local men and boys in the informal tourist economy in Jamaica and the Dominican Republic.     

The Precautionary Principle as a Device for Greater Environmental Protection: Lessons from EC Courts

Given that the precautionary principle has never been defined in the EC Treaty, the EC jurisdictions have been playing a key role in determining the status as well as the scope of that principle. Although scholars have hitherto been paying heed to the case law on food safety, the literature has become a little thinner when one considers environmental case law. This article attempts to set the scene to explain how the precautionary principle can be invoked in different judiciary procedures at the EU level.     

Forensic typing of autosomal SNPs with a 29 SNP-multiplex—Results of a collaborative EDNAP exercise

We report the results of an inter-laboratory exercise on typing of autosomal single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) for forensic genetic investigations in crime cases. The European DNA Profiling Group (EDNAP), a working group under the International Society for Forensic Genetics (ISFG), organised the exercise. A total of 11 European and one US forensic genetic laboratories tested a subset of a 52 SNP-multiplex PCR kit developed by the SNPforID consortium. The 52 SNP-multiplex kit amplifies 52 DNA fragments with 52 autosomal SNP loci in one multiplex PCR. The 52 SNPs are detected in two separate single base extension (SBE) multiplex reactions with 29 and 23 SNPs, respectively, using SNaPshot kit, capillary electrophoresis and multicolour fluorescence detection. For practical reasons, only the 29 SBE multiplex reaction was carried out by the participating laboratories. A total of 11 bloodstains on FTA cards including a sample of poor quality and a negative control were sent to the laboratories together with the essential reagents for the initial multiplex PCR and the multiplex SBE reaction. The total SNP locus dropout rate was 2.8% and more than 50% of the dropouts were observed with the poor quality sample. The overall rate of discrepant SNP allele assignments was 2.0%. Two laboratories reported 60% of all the discrepancies. Two laboratories reported all 29 SNP alleles in all 10 positive samples correctly. The results of the collaborative exercise were surprisingly good and demonstrate that SNP typing with SBE, capillary electrophoresis and multicolour detection methods can be developed for forensic genetics.     

Ontogeny of Size and Shape Sexual Dimorphism in the Pubis: A Multislice Computed Tomography Study by Geometric Morphometry

Few studies have been conducted to determine sex differences in the immature coxal bone and the results were often contradictory. The authors studied sexual dimorphic differences of the pubis using geometric morphometric analysis of five osteometric landmarks recorded by multislice computed tomography (MSCT), based on three‐dimensional reconstructions of 188 children (95 boys, 93 girls) living in the region of Toulouse, southwestern France, ranging in age from 1 to 18 years old. They used geometric morphometric methodology first to test sexual dimorphism in size (centroid size) and shape (Procrustes residuals) and second to examine patterns of shape change with age (development) and size change with age (growth). Based on statistical significance test results, the pubic shape became sexually dimorphic at 13 years old, although visible shape differences were observed as early as 9 years old. This work showed that the trajectories of pubis shape (development) and size (growth) differed throughout ontogeny and between sexes.     

The political economy of regional integration in East Asia

A widely held consensus view claims that East Asia has been shifting recently from a market-led to an institution-based form of regional economic integration, primarily as a result of the 1997–1998 financial crisis. Next to post-crisis financial cooperation schemes under the ASEAN+3, the surge of Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs) involving East Asian countries is thought by some to further substantiate this claim. The objective of the paper is to question the validity of this claim. By examining the current state of play of economic cooperation, in the financial and monetary areas as well as in the trade sphere, the paper highlights the limitations of the formal regional integration movement in East Asia to date, as well as the vastly different dynamics underlying the financial and trade developments. It also explores the changing nature of intra-regional trade and investment linkages and concludes that this new form of interdependence may be instrumental in changing the trade-offs of formal regional economic schemes.     

人口和政治

摆脱某些禁忌长久以来,禁忌和幻影阻碍了人们对政治与人口之间联系的严肃思考。在所有人的想象中,至少在社会精英中,这种联系揭示了一个人口政策是军事实力的杠杆的时代。二十世纪20、30年代的法西斯政体实际上促使了具有侵略性的生育政策向以实现领土征服为目的的战略转变。