Estimating the Duration of Jihadi Terror Plots in the United States

The number of ongoing terror plots increases with the duration of time from plot initiation until plot execution or interdiction (whichever comes first), yet no estimate of the probability distribution governing terror plot duration has appeared in the open literature. To remedy this gap, jihadi terror plots in the United States were identified from terrorism-related indictments that occurred between 11 September 2001 and 30 June 2011 in addition to successful attacks. From a review of indictments, affidavits, and other publicly available information, it was possible to identify lower and upper bounds for the initiation date of the plot in question as well as the ending date corresponding to either the arrest of the suspect(s) eventually convicted or an attempted/actual act of terror. These observations enable estimation of the duration distribution of jihadi terror plots in the United States accounting for the censoring and truncation effects inherent with these data (technical details appear in the Appendix). The estimated mean plot duration equals 270 days (standard error of mean 40 days), while 95 percent of all plots are estimated to fall between 33 and 750 days. These estimates suggest that on average, approximately three ongoing terror plots have been active in the United States at any point since 11 September 2001.     

The psychodynamics of terrorism

This article deals with some of the psychodynamics of terrorism. The act of terrorism, the use of force to produce a fearful state of mind, is discussed with the distinctions drawn between target and victim, demands and aims. Those involved in the terrorist act include the terrorist, the victim, the target, and the audience. Topics dealt with include terrorism as the pursuit of the absolute end, as a response to lack of self‐esteem, as a promotion of a renewed sense of masculinity, as a reaction‐formation to positive feelings toward the target, and as a kind of symbol‐magic or sacrament of violence. Recommendations for dealing with acts of terrorism are included. This article will appear in a forthcoming book.     

Dialogue in American Political Campaigns? An Examination of Issue Convergence in Candidate Television Advertising

The theory of issue ownership holds that competing candidates should avoid discussing many of the same issues during a campaign. In contrast, theories of democracy suggest that competitive elections are the mechanism by which the public can hold politicians accountable. To determine the extent to which each theory depicts current campaigns, we develop a new measure of "issue convergence" and test whether or not issue convergence increases as the competitiveness of the race increases. Using new data based upon television advertising aired in U.S. Senate campaigns from 1998 through 2002, we find that issue engagement or dialogue occurs more frequently than indicated by previous research. We also find that issue engagement increases with the competitiveness of the race but that issue engagement decreases as the gap in financial resources between candidates increases.     

“The Information Gap?”

While the “achievement gap” generally and appropriately focuses upon gaps in test scores and other outcome measures, there may also be an “information gap” between higher and lower income parents that creates a disadvantage for lower income families in choosing good schools. In this article, we examine the extent to which there is such a gap, with a focus on data from a new survey of low‐ and moderate‐income parents who have made school choices. We find that, at least in relatively mature school choice environments like Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and Washington, DC, most low‐ and moderate‐income parents report being quite well informed and they engage in a variety of different activities to become informed. Thus, the information gap between lower and higher income parents may not be as large as scholars and policymakers had assumed. We do find that parents at the very lowest end of the income spectrum, especially those earning less than $10,000 per year, do feel less well‐informed and gather less information, but even here the differences are not enormous, relative to higher income parents.     

Redefining goals and images

He directs longitudinal studies designed to test general models of deviant adaptations to stress. A past editor of the Journal of Health and Social Behavior,his recent publications include “Self-Rejection and the Explanation of Deviance,” “Escalation of Marijuana Use,” and “The Sociological Study of AIDS”; as well as Social Psychology of Self-Referent Behavior, Patterns of Juvenile Delinquency,and Psychosocial Stress.