Determinants of polling accuracy: the effect of opt-in Internet surveys

With the changing polling environment and the difficulties in correctly measuring public opinion, it is crucial to study the effects of polling practices. Elections provide an opportunity to examine how well polls measure support for political parties and how polling practices influence the accuracy of polls. Based on 110 pre-election polls conducted in Sweden, a multiparty system, we find that probability-based samples yield more accurate polls compared to opt-in Internet samples. Thus, our results point to a tradeoff between inexpensive online polls and accuracy.     

Lobbying the state or the market? A framework to study civil society organizations’ strategic behavior

This article lays out a framework for the conditions under which a civil society organization lobbies the state and when it turns to the market. This strategic choice cannot be understood solely from within current frameworks of lobbying strategies; insights from interest group studies must be complemented with the social movement literature's understanding of market‐based strategies. We build an overarching framework by extending the inside and outside lobbying dichotomy to include strategies that target the market. We also argue that it is crucial to understand the relations between both lobbying venues, as their relative power affects the choice not only between inside or outside lobbying, but also between the state or the market. The result is a richer framework more suited to capture the breadth of contemporary civil society organization lobbying behavior and, more importantly, to facilitate the comparative assessment of different strategic choices in future empirical research.     

Effect of integrated treatment on the use of coercive measures in first-episode schizophrenia-spectrum disorder. A randomized clinical trial

The effect of integrated treatment on the use of coercive measures in first-episode schizophrenia-spectrum disorder in Denmark is not known. A total of 328 patients were randomly assigned to integrated treatment (167 patients) or standard treatment (161 patients). Integrated treatment consisted of assertive community treatment, psycho-educational multi-family groups, and social skills training. Data on coercion were extracted from the register from the National Board of Health, and data on continuity from medical records. Even though the level of continuity seemed higher in integrated treatment, this did not reduce the use of coercive measures compared to the use in standard treatment.     

Legal aspects of sexual violence--does forensic evidence make a difference?

A survey was done of 307 alleged victims of sexual violence reported to the police departments in Greater Aarhus, Denmark, in 1999-2004. The legal disposition was ascertained and related to victim and assault characteristics together with the forensic medical and laboratory findings. The police pressed charges in more than half of the cases and 11% turned out to be false allegations. Nineteen percent of all cases ended with sentencing of the defendant. Sperm was detected in 35% of the examined and analysed cases, and in 46% consumption of alcohol prior to the assault was reported. Information in the forensic report regarding injury documentation, intoxication, and detection of sperm and DNA match between victim and alleged assailant did not aid in the prosecution of the case. Severe coercion used by the assailant increased the likelihood of conviction. Intoxication estimation and sperm detection suffered from low sensitivity compared with laboratory analyses. Results suggest the need for new research and optimising the sexual assault examination protocol to strengthen the legal impact of forensic evidence.     

Bargaining Power, Political Transaction Costs and Institutional Change: Private and Public Dental Care in Denmark1

Rational choice institutionalism underexposes institutional change as well as the interaction between institutions at different levels, and this article therefore investigates national and local institutional change. In the Danish dental care sector private and public provision of services have coexisted since the establishment of a publicly financed dental health care system, and the fight between supporters of the two solutions has generated many institutional changes, both nationally and locally. This article analyses all Danish parliamentary proposals and local decisions regarding dental care coverage and provision. The general finding is that increasing pro-public bargaining power seems to promote higher coverage and public provision, while increasing pro-private bargaining power leads to stable coverage and private provision. The institutions do not, however, change whenever bargaining power changes, and national institutional change does not necessarily result in local change. The article explains this in terms of political transaction costs. These costs might also explain why national institutions change more often than local ones, and why local pro-public changes are faster and more frequent than local pro-private changes.