Toulmin's philosophy of argument and its relevance to offender profiling

This study sought to identify the extent to which claims about the probable characteristics of offenders in ‘offender profiles’ were based on substantive arguments. Because Toulmin's (1958) philosophy of argument has been demonstrated as a useful way of breaking down arguments into their constituent parts (Burleson, 1979) we examined the extent to which profiles contained grounds, warrants, backing and rebuttals to support or refute various claims about offenders. Twenty-one profiles, representing a range of ‘profiling styles’, were obtained from a variety of sources. All of these had been used in major criminal investigations either in the UK or internationally. Of the nearly 4,000 claims made, nearly 80% were unsubstantiated. That is, they contained no grounds, warrant, backing or rebuttal. Moreover, less than 31% of the claims were falsifiable. We argue that (a) this demonstrates the need for a careful, systematic evaluation of profiling advice (b) Toulmin's structure is one useful method for evaluating such material and for providing a possible framework for such advice.     

Public Service Motivation,Prosocial Motivation and Altruism: Towards Disentanglement and Conceptual Clarity

Research on public service motivation (PSM) has made great strides in terms of study output. Given the enormous scholarly attention on PSM, it is surprising that considerable conceptual ambiguities and overlaps with related concepts such as prosocial motivation, and altruism still remain. This study addresses this issue by systematically carving out the differences and similarities between these concepts. Taking this approach, this study clarifies the conceptual space of both PSM and the other concepts. Using data from semi-structured interviews with police officers, it is illustrated that PSM and prosocial motivation are different types of motivation leading to different types of prosocial behaviour.     

The Arab middle east and the question of democratization: Some critical remarks

While many of the contemporary writings on Middle Eastern political change contend that democratization is under way in the Arab world, this article maintains that much of the recent optimism is due to a lack of terminological clarity. Neither are there any Arab democracies today, nor is there any tangible democratization in this region. Adherents of the democratization hypothesis in the Arab world invoke mainly two arguments: that of a strengthened civil society and that of economic transformation, which are supposed to trigger democratization. Both arguments are discussed with the finding that they do not provide convincing evidence to support such hypotheses. Rather, systemic transitions from non‐democracies to other non‐democratic systems are likely developments in the Arab Middle East. Comparative research should therefore focus not only on the ‘breakdown of democratic regimes’ or ‘democratic transitions’, but develop models better to grasp non‐democratic transitions.     

Top Management Turnover and Organizational Performance: A Test of a Contingency Model

A crucial test of whether “management matters” is whether changes in the team at the top of an organization make a difference. Focusing on turnover in the collective senior team rather than successions of individual chief executives, this article argues that the impact of leadership succession is contingent upon prior organizational performance. The evidence on English local government shows that changes in the top management team lead to improvements when initial performance is bad, but result in deterioration when initial performance is good. The results support the view that high‐performing organizations should attempt to retain members of their senior management team, whereas low performers should seek to replace them.     

Approaches to Reduce Conflict when Insuring the Environmental Cleanup of Closed Military Bases Intended for Redevelopment

Base Realignment and Closure (“BRAC”) of military bases has occurred in waves over the last few decades. Many of these properties were operational through World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam conflict, and into the modern Cold War. As part of the United States military's transfer of these properties to the local municipalities, which includes significant funds to cleanup remaining chemicals of concern, contract terms of the transfer typically require insurance policies that have the intention of mitigating the risk of additional future cleanup costs. As a result, numerous BRAC sites have established contracts with environmental consultants who have provided guaranteed fixed price contracts for cleanup of the site. To mitigate additional future cleanup costs, the environmental contractor is required to purchase a stop loss or cost cap insurance policy for their guaranteed fixed price contract to share the risk that there will be cost overruns in the cleanup of the known pollution. The redeveloper is required to purchase Premises Pollution or Environmental Liability insurance to share the risk that any newly discovered contamination will not result in additional cleanup costs for the redeveloper. This paper will discuss some of the recent lessons learned regarding (1) the terms of the initial cleanup transfer agreement, (2) efforts for project scoping/set-up, and (3) subsequent implementation dynamics of the relationships between the US Military, local municipality, redeveloper, and environmental contractor.     

Defending Country: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Military Service since 1945

Defending Country: Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Military Service since 1945. By Noah Riseman and Richard Trembath (St. Lucia: University of Queensland Press, 2016), pp. xi + 243, photographs, bibliography, AU$34.95 (pb).     

Clinical psychologists’ perceptions of barriers and facilitators to engaging service users in index offence assessment and formulation within a medium secure unit

Index offence assessment and formulation (IOAF) helps service users (SU) in secure units to make sense of their index offence, provides detailed understanding of risk and contributes to treatment planning and discharge decisions. Clinical psychologists’ perceptions of barriers and facilitators to engaging SUs in IOAF within the men’s and women’s services of one medium secure unit were explored through focus groups. Thematic analysis identified two relevant domains: person-specific factors and the organisational context. Person-specific barriers included challenges in working with fragmented narratives, conflicting motivations to engage, SU defences and distorted perceptions of clinical psychologists’ roles. Giving clarity and choice to SUs facilitated engagement with the work. Regarding the organisational context, clinical psychologists within both services identified the importance of having adequate resources and care-team support to complete this work. Findings highlight the importance of developing an evidence-based framework for IOAF to be embedded within clear ‘risk’ care pathways through secure services.