The combined use of pollen and soil analyses in a search and subsequent murder investigation

This case report shows how soil analyses (particularly petrology) can be used in conjunction with pollen in order to refine or strengthen an association. Soil samples from a car believed to have been used by the suspect in a missing persons case was subjected to soil and pollen analyses. The soil characteristics and petrology were used to redefine the search area using geology and soils maps, the pollen and vegetative remains were used to target woodlands with a particular species mix. As a result two bodies were located and the environmental evidence was used in the subsequent trial. In this case the history of the vehicle was well known and the wheel arches and footwells provided reliable soil traps. The advantage of combining the techniques is that soil evidence (both mineralogy and other inclusions) provides a geological/soils match while the pollen provides independent evidence of vegetation type providing a combination that may be rare or unique.     

Religious Activity and Political Participation: The Brazilian and Chilean Cases

Scholars debate whether the recent conversion of millions of Latin Americans to evangelical Protestantism bodes well for democratic participation or reinforces authoritarian culture and practices. Using a resource model, this study examines the link between participation in religious organizations, political engagement, and political participation in Brazil and Chile. Survey data indicate that religious organizations, particularly Protestant ones, can provide skills that members can transfer to political activity; and that different religions can result in different politics.     

Latent-variable models in criminological research: Applications and a generalization of Joreskog's LISREL model

This paper examines issues in LISREL models involving latent, or unobserved, variables. We discuss estimating parameters in multiple-indicator models, various approaches to assessing goodness of fit, different types of linear measurement models, using LISREL to correct for attenuation in models involving single indicators with known reliabilities, and estimating parameters in structural equation models involving latent exogenous and endogenous variables. Finally, we present a generalization of the standard LISREL model which explicitly identifies implicit constraints on parameters in the standard LISREL model. We argue that the generalization can accommodate a wider range of models and provide additional diagnostic information on some assumptions in the standard LISREL model. By example, we show how the more general model can be estimated using Joreskog's LISREL program.     

Policy voting in U.S. House primaries

ABSTRACT

This paper uses exit surveys of voters in four House primaries to ask how well voters are able to use primaries for the purpose of giving policy direction to their congressional parties. The surveys found that nearly half of voters could not recall the names of any candidate and that 11% were uncertain or could not recall for whom they had just voted. The surveys also found that nearly 40% of voters could not offer a political evaluation – that is, a like or dislike having political content – about any candidate, and that fewer than a quarter could offer political evaluations of as many as two candidates. The surveys found no evidence of policy-motivated voting in three of the four primaries, but substantial evidence of it in one. Yet even in that one race, voters split their support among three candidates sharing majority voter opinion on the key election issue and thereby opened the way for nomination of a candidate not sharing majority opinion. The paper concludes from this evidence that voters in these House primaries, and probably more widely, made little use of them for the purpose of giving policy direction to their parties.     

Estimating Mean Length of Stay in Prison: Methods and Applications

This paper examines various approaches to studying the mean length of stay in prison. The literature contains a wide range of estimates of this quantity. The discrepancies that appear in these estimates and in the conclusions reached from them have been the subject of several reviews. We build upon that work, using the life table as the gold standard, to demonstrate the inaccuracy of common measures such as the ratio of the population size to the annual number of entrances or the mean length of time served by those exiting in a particular period. This demonstration is conducted in two parts. One part uses model populations with constant growth rates; the second part relies upon simulated prison populations with time-varying rates of entrance and exit. In addition, we introduce two new indirect measures that are more accurate than several existing indirect measures and that are relatively easy to use. The new measures are based on the entrance rate or the exit rate and adjust for the growth rate of the prison population.

The impact of foreign-owned enterprises in low-income economies

An economic impact snapshot of foreign and domestic enterprises from the functional economic areas of Guinea-Bissau showed that not all micro and small enterprises (MSEs) are local, and not all outside investment is large scale. We find that South–South entrepreneurship has prospects to improve livelihoods as drivers of economic growth and development in a low-income economy. While political instability and a lack of resources remain as barriers to solvency for both domestic and foreign investors in the global periphery, as opportunities and effective business strategies are fostered, improved socio-economic integration and development results.