Looking Back to Move Forward: Quantifying Policy Predictions in Political Decision Making

Policy makers constantly face uncertainty, which makes achieving their goals problematic. To overcome this uncertainty, they employ tools to drive down uncertainty and make probabilistic decisions. We provide a method for scholars to assess empirically how actors make probabilistic predictions. We focus on the interactions between the executive and judicial branches, analyzing the conditions under which justices force the United States to provide them with information. Our approach generates substantive knowledge about interbranch behavior as well as a methodological innovation available to scholars who study political decision making under conditions of limited information.     

Observed Characteristics of Suicidal Hangings: An 11-year Retrospective Review

Many studies have been published regarding suicidal hanging deaths, and most forensic pathologists and coroners are very familiar with such causes of death. Forensic pathologists are challenged over their rulings regarding manner of death in part because the general public has a limited scope of knowledge. One such challenge centers on the question of whether a hanging can be a suicide if the individual is not fully suspended. The authors designed a retrospective study to review suspension in hangings and to analyze other criteria used to help in deciding manner of death. We examined 229 suicidal hanging deaths over an 11-year period (1997 through early 2009) using the data from two separate jurisdictions in Ohio. In conclusion, we found that the vast majority (83.4%) of people who hanged themselves were found partially suspended. Among other criteria analyzed, only the presence of petechial hemorrhages and acute neck injury was statistically significant.     

A case study in public child welfare: county-level practices that address racial disparity in foster care placement

Racial disproportionality has been a longstanding issue within child welfare. The continued overrepresentation of black children in the foster care system is troubling. The authors of this article conducted a case study of two counties in New York State that have steadily decreased the number of black children in foster care in an effort to identify what aspects of their child welfare practice impacted the decline. The case study employed document analysis, in-depth interviews, and focus groups with child removal decision makers. Utilizing a grounded theory approach to content organization and analysis, several themes emerged as noticeable factors. Some of the most salient themes included preventive services and resources, community collaborations, case practice development, family meetings, workforce diversity, the court system, and, the most unique, blind removal meetings. The themes found in this study present promising practices to assist in decreasing the racial disparity in child welfare removal decisions.     

Toxicological investigation of liquid petroleum gas explosion: human model for propane/ethyl mercaptan exposures

Four individuals died as the result of a propane explosion. As with many propane explosions, the question was raised as to the adequacy of the product's odorization after the autopsy studies had been conducted. In most cases, this question leads to litigation. Ethyl mercaptan is a widely used odorant for propane and was used in this instance. Three of the four victims had blood available at autopsy for study. Quantitative analyses of the victims' blood, obtained during autopsy, were performed using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry, without subjecting the samples to hydrolysis. These analyses determined the relative amounts of propane and ethyl mercaptan in the blood to be 90, 63, and 175 mL/m3 headspace, and 0.36, 0.34, and 0.77 microgram/L blood, respectively. Since mercaptans have been reported in human blood as products of metabolism, modeling studies were conducted to establish the validity of the autopsy data and to develop an autopsy toxicology protocol for investigating explosion deaths. When subjects were not exposed to an atmosphere containing ethyl mercaptan, dimethylsulfide was the only mercaptan detectable in their blood without severe hydrolysis prior to analysis. Metabolic ethyl mercaptan is sufficiently bound to be undetectable by the methods used without hydrolysis. Human subjects were exposed to a flammable mixture of air and propane odorized with ethyl mercaptan. The analyses of the blood from these subjects produced results which were comparable with those for the explosion victims, establishing that the question of odorant adequacy can be addressed at the autopsy of propane explosion victims. It is extremely important that the pathologist and toxicologist investigating gas explosion deaths recognize the valuable evidence existing in the victim's blood.     

The Reliability of Pattern Classification in Bloodstain Pattern Analysis—PART 2: Bloodstain Patterns on Fabric Surfaces,

This study was designed to produce the first baseline measure of the reliability of bloodstain pattern classifications on fabric surfaces. Experienced bloodstain pattern analysts classified bloodstain patterns on pairs of trousers that represented three fabric substrates. Patterns also varied in type (impact, cast‐off, expiration, satellite stains from dripped blood, and transfer) and extent. In addition, case summaries that accompanied each pattern contained contextual cues that either supported the correct answer (i.e., positive bias), were misleading toward an incorrect answer (i.e., negative bias), or contained no directional information (i.e., neutral). Overall, 23% percent of the resulting classifications were erroneous. The majority (51%) of errors resulted from analysts misclassifying satellite stains from dripped blood. Relative to the neutral information, the positive‐bias information increased correct classifications and decreased erroneous classifications, and the negative‐bias information decreased correct classifications and increased erroneous classifications. The implications of these findings for BPA are discussed.     

The Bush Doctrine: The Foreign Policy of Republican Empire

The dominant narrative concerning the Bush Doctrine maintains that it is a dangerous innovation, an anomaly that violates the principles of sound policy as articulated by the Founders. According to the conventional wisdom, the Bush Doctrine represents the exploitation of the 9/11 terrorist attacks, by a small group of ideologues—the “neoconservatives”—to gain control of national policy and lead the United States into the war in Iraq, a war that should never have been fought. But far from a being a neoconservative innovation, the Bush Doctrine is, in fact, well within the mainstream of U.S. foreign policy and very much in keeping with the vision of America's founding generation and the practice of the statesmen in the Early Republic. The Bush Doctrine is only the latest manifestation of the fact that U.S. national interest has always been concerned with more than simple security.