An asymmetric partisanship effect: House price fluctuations and party positions

Political economy arguments on party behaviour usually address parties of the left and the right. This article introduces a novel argument that portrays house price changes as an economic signal that right-wing parties disproportionately respond to in their programmatic positioning. This asymmetric partisanship effect is driven by homeowners’ importance for right-wing parties as a core voter group. Increasing house prices improve homeowners’ economic prospects. Right-wing parties thus have some flexibility to reach out to undecided voters by targeting the centre of the political spectrum. Falling house prices, however, signal worsening economic outlooks for homeowners. Right-wing parties thus have a strong incentive to send out signals of reassurance and prioritise their core voters. For a sample of Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries from 1970 to 2014, the findings support this argument. Right-wing parties move programmatically leftwards with booming house prices and rightwards when house prices fall, while parties of the left do not respond systematically.     

In Defence of Politics: Interpreting the Peace Process and the Future of Northern Ireland

The interpretation of the Northern Ireland peace process is highly controversial because it not only has implications for the future of Northern Ireland but ‘lessons’ are also drawn for dealing with terrorism and insurgency globally. This article reviews and critiques key interpretations of the peace process. ‘The Militarists’, Republican Dissidents and Neoconservatives, offer a ‘fundamentalist idealist’ interpretation which leads them to reject political compromise and continue to pursue victory by military means. ‘The Enthusiasts’ are leading figures in the Labour government who champion the outcome of the peace process and recommend ‘talking to terrorists’. ‘The Sceptics’ argue in defence of politics and support the pragmatic realism used to negotiate accommodation. They are critical of ‘The Militarists’ for misinterpreting the peace process and threatening to go back to ‘war’. ‘Sceptics’ welcome powersharing but criticise the ‘Enthusiasts’ for mishandling the peace process and undermining the moderate parties. This has left Northern Ireland with high levels of segregation and economic inequality that prevent the consolidation of peace.     

The Politics of Fiscal Austerity: Implications for the United States

As austerity becomes the new normal for advanced nations, questions are raised about whether nations can make the hard choices necessary to bring about a sustainable fiscal future. The political defeat experienced by so many European governments undertaking fiscal consolidations points to the vulnerabilities that leaders will face. This article shows that how some Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) nations have survived the daunting politics of fiscal consolidation by timing actions for periods of economic recovery and political honeymoons following elections and by pursuing deficit reduction strategies that emphasize broad sweeping changes yielding high potential for dramatic economic gains over the longer term. Unlike many European nations today, the seemingly endless appetite for US treasuries by worldwide markets give the United States the luxury of choosing to begin deficit reduction only when the economy strengthens. However, the absence of market pressure also reduces the sense of urgency, consigning national leaders to create internal crises such as the 2012 “fiscal cliff” to force their own hand. While the polarized politics characterizing our party system does not bode well for concerted fiscal action, divided government carries the potential for spreading political risks and promoting more sustainable fiscal outcomes, as it has in our recent history and in other nations as well.     

Representation as a median mandate? A response to Best,Budge and McDonald

The preceding article by Best, Budge and McDonald acknowledges much of the substance of the alternative ‘bilateralist’ interpretation of democratic governance I advocated and attempts to re‐focus the median mandate approach towards a longer‐term, and potentially more productive, understanding of the opinion‐policy relationship. Both are welcome developments. Despite taking these steps, however, the authors choose to allow the fate of the median mandate thesis to rest ultimately on an attempt to re‐establish the short‐term one‐to‐one relationship that I challenged. In this brief note, I argue that this not only undercuts the more positive initiatives noted above, but also is based on a flawed understanding of how the short‐term relationship should be operationalised and tested.     

FAITH,PUBLIC POLICY,AND THE LIMITS OF SOCIAL SCIENCE*

Recent interest on the part of criminologists in the “faith factor” has made possible a contemporary argument for faith‐based interventions in crime prevention: if faith “works,” then government should support faith‐based initiatives because in doing so, government is not endorsing religion, but science. Drawing on the ideas of Karl Popper, Michael Polanyi, and others, this essay reviews this argument within the framework of the philosophy of social science. The discussion reviews such concepts of falsification, structural causality, objectivity, and evidence‐based policy making to affirm the place of both faith and science in public life.     

EXPLAINING RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIFFERENCES IN SERIOUS ADOLESCENT VIOLENT BEHAVIOR*

This study explains racial/ethnic differences in serious adolescent violent behavior using a contextual model derived from prior urban, developmental, and criminological theory. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health, we compare involvement in serious violence among Asians, blacks, Hispanics, Native Americans, and whites. Results indicate that statistical differences between whites and minority groups are explained by variation in community disadvantage (for blacks), involvement in gangs (for Hispanics), social bonds (for Native Americans), and situational variables (for Asians). The lesser involvement in violence among Asians compared to blacks, Hispanics, and Native Americans is accounted for by similar factors. Differences in violent behavior among the latter three minority groups are not significant. Theoretical and policy implications of the findings are discussed.     

Indigenous Peoples and Sustainable Development Subprojects in Brazilian Amazonia: The Challenges of Interculturality*

The implementation of sustainable development projects for Indigenous peoples in Brazilian Amazonia by the Pilot Program for the Protection of Brazilian Tropical Forests has generated new types of intercultural relations between the dominant society and local Indigenous communities. This article analyzes sixteen of these projects focussing upon (1) sociocultural relations, in which two different administrative and political systems come into contact and require the adoption by Indigenous peoples of a Western “project” format to meet their social and environmental needs, and (2) interscientific relations, whereby unresolved legal issues concerning the use of and access to Indigenous knowledge by members and institutions of the wider society are exacerbated.