Déjà vu? Conservative Problems in Historical Perspective

Since 2001, the Conservative party has found itself in turbulent times. Yet the party has survived similarly difficult periods in the past, eventually recovering its strength and returning to power. Can it do so again? The problems for today's party exist along four key dimensions: leadership, policy, organisation and political circumstances. How grave are contemporary difficulties in each of these areas in comparison to past experience? To what extent is the party now in uncharted waters? Where are there valid historical parallels? The article offers a brief sketch of the lessons that the party needs to learn to recover its election winning formula ‐ an appetite for power and an impressive ability to adapt to changed circumstances. Today's problems are not insurmountable, but the party still has a huge mountain to climb if it is to return to government.     

DOES POLITICAL CHANGE AFFECT SENIOR MANAGEMENT TURNOVER? AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF TOP‐TIER LOCAL AUTHORITIES IN ENGLAND

In many political systems the political neutrality of senior managers' tenure is often cherished as a key part of the politics-administration dichotomy and is subject to formal safeguards. We test hypotheses about the impact of political change on senior management turnover drawn from political science, public administration and private sector management theory. Using panel data to control for unobserved heterogeneity between authorities, we find that changes in political party control and low organizational performance have both separate and joint positive effects on the turnover rate of senior managers. By contrast, the most senior manager, the chief executive, is more sheltered: the likelihood of a chief executive succession is higher only when party change and low performance occur together. Thus the arrival of a new ruling party reduces the tenure of senior managers, but chief executives are vulnerable to political change only when performance is perceived as weak.     

Improving Russian Justice with Foreign Assistance: Model Courts and the Tactical Approach

This article argues that as an interactive, tactical approach to sharing good practices, model courts represent an especially fruitful vehicle for accomplishing judicial reform. This contention is illustrated with an assessment of Canadian and American judicial reform projects in Russia in creating model district courts and diffusing their experience to other courts throughout the country. Mechanisms of diffusion included both a new curriculum for the training of court staff and new instructions for case management, as well as the indirect spread of concepts and practices through social learning. The article goes on to explore the reasons for the success of these projects and the conditions under which the tactical approach is most appropriate.     

ADMINISTRATIVE POLITICIZATION OR CONTESTABILITY? HOW POLITICAL ADVISERS AFFECT NEUTRAL COMPETENCE IN POLICY PROCESSES

There is limited empirical research on the extent to which politicized recruitment of ministerial advisers affects the quality of the policy process. In this article we take a novel step by looking at two possible consequences of increased political recruitment for the policy process: administrative politicization and contestability. We deploy a Most Similar Systems comparison of Denmark and Sweden and include survey answers from 657 civil servants in managerial positions. We find that political recruitment of top civil servants, such as Swedish state secretaries, restricts the access of the civil service to the minister, but it does not substantially politicize the policy process. Danish civil servants perceive themselves as more contested by the relatively few Danish political advisers than their Swedish colleagues. Our results imply that the organization of political advice is a crucial factor for politicization and contestability     

THE CONTAGIOUS NATURE OF ANTISOCIAL BEHAVIOR

Attention is called to several recently advanced lines of evidence underscoring the role of contagion in antisocial behavior. One line of evidence consists of findings that the onset of antisocial behavior in one sibling increases the risk to other siblings. A second line of evidence shows that the tendency of monozygotic twins to be more concordant for antisocial behavior than dizygotic twins can be explained by contagion as well as heredity. In addition, there are differences in prevalence between same-sexed and opposite-sexed twins that contagion can explain, but heredity cannot, at least not without numerous ad hoc auxiliary suppositions. Third, behavioral contagion is also able to explain, and very precisely, the temporal course of aggregate delinquency through adolescence. Fourth, evidence has been presented that antisocial behavior is an equilibrial phenomenon, that is, that it depends on a balance between antisocial and prosocial forces, a balance (or imbalance) that would explain the sudden leaps and falls that crime statistics sometimes take. Finally, programs to combat drug use are often modestly successful and almost all such programs presuppose that drug use is contagious. The paper closes with two sections on the implications of these findings, first for theory and research and then for policy and practice.     

THE VALUE OF CHOICE IN PUBLIC POLICY

Conceptualizing and measuring choice is problematic both in theory and in practice. Measuring by counting the alternatives seems counter-intuitive as a smaller set of better or more diverse alternatives seems to provide more choice than one that is simply larger. However, concentrating upon better alternatives leads to choice being defined by welfare or utility which is also counter-intuitive. The implications of this paradox are considered in relation to examples drawn from the choice agenda in British social policy. Empirical difficulties in measuring the welfare gains through implementing greater choice at a time of other central-led policy initiatives such as targets are discussed, and the extant evidence discussed. Criteria for judging whether or not choice has been welfare-enhancing are suggested. It is argued that 'soft choice' where service providers provide information and explain different options is preferable to 'hard' choice of simplistic targets to increase choice by ticking target boxes.