Attention to Detail: The Conservative Policy Agenda

Since 2001 (if not since 1997) the Conservative party has struggled to develop a coherent set of policies with which to provide a credible alternative to the Blair government. A second successive crushing election defeat fuelled the ongoing debates in the Conservative party, between those who were convinced of the need to steer towards the centre ground, thereby reviving the Conservative's 'one nation' tradition, and those who wanted to place clear blue water between themselves and New Labour, and thus adhere to Thatcherite radicalism. The Conservatives have therefore appeared to struggle in developing clear, alternative policies on such issues as 'tax-and-spend' and public service reform and delivery. They have, however, inched hesitatingly towards a more socially liberal stance on various issues. A major problem for the Conservatives has been that the Blair governments have actually continued with, or consolidated, many policies inherited from the Conservatives in 1997, thereby making it even more difficult for the Conservatives to articulate their own distinct policy agenda. This is likely to contribute towards a third heavy defeat for the Conservative party in the next general election.     

SHORT‐TERM CHANGES IN ADULT ARREST RATES INFLUENCE LATER SHORT‐TERM CHANGES IN SERIOUS MALE DELINQUENCY PREVALENCE: A TIME‐DEPENDENT RELATIONSHIP*

The impacts of quarterly adult arrest rates on later male serious delinquency prevalence rates were investigated in Philadelphia police districts (N = 23) over several years using all male delinquents aged 10–15 years who were mandated to more than “straight” probation. An ecological deterrence model expects more arrests to lead to less delinquency later. A community justice or mass incarceration model, the ecological version of general strain theory, and an ecologized version of the procedural justice model, each anticipates more arrests lead to more delinquency later. Investigating quarterly lags from 3 to 24 months between adult arrests and later delinquency, the results showed a time‐dependent relationship. Models with short lags showed the negative relationship expected by ecological deterrence theory. Models with lags of about a year and a half showed the positive relationship expected by the other three theories. Indicators needed so future works can gauge the relative merits of each theoretical perspective more accurately are described. The spatial distributions of current and 1920s delinquency rates were compared.     

Fixing Europe's Democratic Deficit

Because they have failed to address the fundamental economic imbalances within Europe obscured by the single currency, each effort by European leaders so far to resolve the euro crisis has only deepened it. Without a decisive move toward fiscal and political union, accompanied by policies that push productivity and competitiveness toward convergence while closing the democratic deficit, the Eurozone will disintegrate. To discuss the way forward, the Nicolas Berggruen Institute's Council on the Future of Europe met in Rome on May 28 with Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti. In this section we publish the contributions from that meeting by the former European leaders, scholars and Nobel laureates who are members of the Council.     

Lessons of reform in the Ontario Civil Service

There is a dramatic process of change taking place in the province of Ontario, Canada, which points to and highlights the need for utter political commitment for change. This is taking place in an environment that contains within it many of the structural problems being experienced by member countries. This article reviews the current plans and actions and draws lessons from Ontario's experience in developing a professional competent public service over a period of time, during which the expectations of the service have changed radically. (© 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.)     

POLICY‐LEARNING AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY INTEGRATION IN THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY, 1973–2003

This article uses the Advocacy Coalition Framework (ACF) ( Sabatier and Jenkins‐Smith 1999 ; Weible and Sabatier 2007 ) and a refined version of the social learning approach of Peter Hall (1993) to assess and explain policy change in the Common (Agricultural) Policy (CAP) with a special view on Environmental Policy Integration (EPI). Three stages of EPI are discerned that move from central to vertical and later horizontal EPI, complementing an impact model of agriculture and the environment with a public goods model. Reform debates appear as prolonged and iterative battles over the institutionalization of new ideas which are finally incorporated into the existing policy framework. The policy network increasingly reflects cross‐policy interdependencies and includes superior authorities, rendering the notion of a policy subsystem problematic. Contrary to the social learning model, the major (although not the most radical) change proponent dominates the policy community while superior authorities tend to intervene on behalf of the status quo. The argument is developed on the base of interviews with policy‐makers in Brussels.