AN APPROACH TO THE POLITICAL SOCIOLOGY OF THE WELSH NATIONALIST MOVEMENT

Abstract The character and ideology of the Welsh nationalist movement have changed drastically since the founding of an independent party in 1925. This paper seeks to utilize a developmental typology in analyzing data obtained from interviews with nationalist activists in examining such changes. In this way, it is possible to understand how Welsh language militants, 'respectable' cultural nationalists, middle-of-the road party workers from rural Wales, and south Wales radicals coexist and cooperate within the fabric of organized nationalism. The investigation of the social dynamics of the movement renders comprehensible both the causes of internal organizational strength and the electoral difficulties facing Plaid Cymru.     

Normative Forecacasting: An Application of Stochastic Models to Crime Rates

Normative forecasting is a procedure designed to measure future intensity within a given region compared to the future level within a larger region—the population as a whole. A procedure for normative forecasting is developed which incorporates empirical stochastic models and their forecasts along with a scaling procedure. A substantive example which uses reported monthly crime occurrence data compares the future intensity of crime within one city to a population base composed of several similar major U. S. cities.