The Silent Reform of Swiss Federalism: The New Constitutional Articles on Education

This article examines the decision‐making process leading to the new constitutional articles on education in Switzerland. It analyzes how actors from both state levels (Confederation and cantons) could reach consensus in a process that was prone to a “joint‐decision trap”. To that end, we hypothesize which factors may be conducive to a “problem‐solving” style of policy‐making in a compulsory negotiation system. Rich empirical material from various sources supports our theoretical arguments: We show that shared beliefs and a common frame of reference, the procedural separation between constitutional and distributional issues, neutral brokers, and informal structures were all beneficial to the success of the reform project.     

So Close But So Far: Voting Propensity and Party Choice for Left‐Wing Parties

While the bulk of the literature focuses on the vote for parties from different blocs, the purpose of our article is to study the vote for two parties that are ideologically very close to each other: The Social Democrats and the Greens in Switzerland. To that end, we develop a two‐step model, where voters first make a selection of parties that are acceptable to them and then make their electoral choice out of this set of acceptable alternatives. We use voting propensities as a measure of the first, consideration step and we show that they strongly depend on the distance between voters and parties on the Left–Right scale. With regard to the second, choice stage of the electoral process we hypothesize about the factors that may account for the varying ability of the two parties to convert potential voters into real voters. Our empirical tests provide encouraging support for our hypotheses regarding the impact of socio‐demographic variables and issue voting. Strategic considerations, by contrast, do not seem to matter.     

Toward a national youth employment policy: Mapping the route from problems to programs

The United States has not had a consistent, comprehensive youth employment policy. Program objectives are not clear and are often in conflict with the objectives of other programs aimed at the same target population. The primary needs at this juncture are a clearly specified policy objective and a method for identifying the ways in which potential interventions can help attain that objective.The authors argue that the genesis of public concern with youth employment problems lies in the general acceptance of greater equality of opportunity as a national goal. The appropriate objective of youth employment policy is conceptualized as the reduction of certain inequalities in economic opportunity that confront the young.Equality of economic opportunity is a long-run concept. The relations between actions at a point in time and opportunity over time are developed within a model of youth behavior. The analysis focuses on the notions of career paths, employment success, and economic oportunity.The Research reported here was supported by the Office of Economic Opportunity. The authors owe much to the deliberations and suggestions of: K. Arrow, A. Carlin, J. Coleman, A. Cook, Jr., R. Dorfman, G. Fishman, T. Glennan, Jr., D. Greenberg, P. Katsky, S. M. Lipset, L. Rapping, T. Schelling, E. Sheldon, R. Summers, T. Tomlinson, B. Williams, W. Williams, and A. Wohlstetter. Sole responsibility for any errors or omissions, of course, resides with the authors.     

Variability of the pattern of aging on the human skeleton: evidence from bone indicators and implications on age at death estimation

Age at death assessment of adult skeletons is one of the most difficult problems in forensic and physical anthropology. Two fundamental sources of error are described: the complex variability in the process of skeletal aging and methodological bias. Taking into account these limits, we developed a new scoring system for the auricular surface of the ilium and the pubic symphysis. In order to address a large variability, we examine reference samples from Europe, North America, Africa, and Asia. Data were processed using Bayesian prediction in order to classify specimens in age range categories. Results show that combining indicators do not perform better than the auricular surface used as a single indicator. Morphological changes with aging are variable between Asian, African, and European populations, confirming the necessity to use population-specific standards. Bayesian prediction produces reliable classification and is applicable for subjects over 50 years old, a real methodological improvement.     

Validation of a radiographic method to establish new fetal growth standards: radio-anatomical correlation

In forensic medicine, specialists might face difficulties when estimating age at death from fetal remains. Depending on the state of preservation, this age assessment is essentially based on the diaphyseal size of long bones. In a previous work, for the measurement of fetal femoral ossified shafts, we already established a simple and reliable method using a radiographic protocol. Since we previously stated that radiographic measurement values were closer to real anatomical size than ultrasonographic ones, in the present study we decided to check the importance of the difference between radiographic and anatomical measurements. Therefore, we dissected 30 pairs of fetal femurs and compared the difference between the two kinds of measurements (in percentages). This difference seemed to be slight (4.027%), but it was large enough to entail significant differences (p < 0.001). In order to provide a correction factor for radiographic measurements, we established a linear regression formula, which was tested on another sample of 30 pairs of dissected femurs. As a consequence of the good results, we improved the linear regression using a powerful statistical tool: the bootstrap. Finally, we obtained a simple equation that allowed us to figure out the real anatomical size with an R2 of 99% and a mean relative difference of 0.153% (with a standard error of 0.252 mm, and therefore a 95% confidence interval with limits of -0.35 and 0.657 mm). This difference did not entail any significant differences (p = 0.498), and therefore, we concluded that with the proposed correction, radiographic measurements can easily be used by forensic specialists in their daily tasks or to establish new growth standards in order to best fit their population of interest.     

Issue Competence and its Influence on Voting Behavior in the Swiss 2015 Elections

The Liberal Radical party and – even more so – the Swiss People's party are the two winners of the Swiss 2015 election. In this contribution, we evaluate whether and to what extent issue ownership voting may help to account for the electoral success of these two parties. To that end, we distinguish the two dimensions – the associative and the competence dimension – of the concept and we rely on data from the on‐line, four‐wave panel survey carried out in the context of the Swiss election studies. Our results highlight the stability of issue ownership perceptions during the course of the campaign on the aggregate level, but they also show the substantial importance of issue ownership voting, on the individual level. More specifically, in line with earlier studies we find that competence issue ownership has a direct impact on the vote choice, whereas the impact of associative issue ownership is far more limited. For both parties under study, being seen as the most competent party on two important issues (migration and the economy) significantly contributes to the explanation of the vote choice.     

Anthropological Facial Approximation in Three Dimensions (AFA3D): Computer‐Assisted Estimation of the Facial Morphology Using Geometric Morphometrics

This study presents Anthropological Facial Approximation in Three Dimensions (AFA3D), a new computerized method for estimating face shape based on computed tomography (CT) scans of 500 French individuals. Facial soft tissue depths are estimated based on age, sex, corpulence, and craniometrics, and projected using reference planes to obtain the global facial appearance. Position and shape of the eyes, nose, mouth, and ears are inferred from cranial landmarks through geometric morphometrics. The 100 estimated cutaneous landmarks are then used to warp a generic face to the target facial approximation. A validation by re‐sampling on a subsample demonstrated an average accuracy of c. 4 mm for the overall face. The resulting approximation is an objective probable facial shape, but is also synthetic (i.e., without texture), and therefore needs to be enhanced artistically prior to its use in forensic cases. AFA3D, integrated in the TIVMI software, is available freely for further testing.     

Objective Evaluation of Subclass Characteristics on Breech Face Marks

Subclass characteristics can be found on the breech face marks left on spent cartridge cases. Even if they are assumed to be rare and their reported number is small, they can potentially lead to false associations. Subclass characteristics have been studied empirically allowing examiners to recognize them and to understand in which conditions they are produced. Until now, however, their influence on the identification process has not been studied from a probabilistic point of view. In this study, we aim at measuring the effect of these features on the strength of association derived from examinations involving subclass characteristics. The study takes advantage of a 3D automatic comparison system allowing the calculation of likelihood ratios (LRs). The similarities between cartridge case specimens fired by thirteen S&W .40S&W Sigma pistols are quantified, and their respective LRs are computed. The results show that the influence of subclass characteristics on the LRs is limited, even when these features are prevalent among the potential sources considered in a case. We show that the proportion of firearms sharing subclass characteristics should be larger than 40% of the pool of potential firearms for the effect to be significant.     

Arsenic speciation of two specimens of Napoleon's hair

Since 1960, it has been demonstrated by various analytical procedures that high concentrations of arsenic were present in Napoleon's hair. Various authors, indicating that the detected arsenic levels are a consequence of external contamination, have challenged the results of these examinations. We have tested two strands of hair, referenced as Noverraz and Grand Maréchal Bertrand. Samples were incubated 6h in water at 90 degrees C, and arsenic speciation was carried out by HPLC-ICP/MS. The residue was injected on a cation-exchange PRP-X200 column that allows the detection of arsenobetaine and on an anion-exchange PRP-X100 column to test for the mineral forms. In these conditions, the inorganic species As(III), As(V) and their metabolites (DMA and MMA) were separated. Analysis of hair samples highlighted massive amounts of total arsenic (42.1 and 37.4ng/mg). Arsenical species found in the two samples of analyzed hair are distributed in the following: As(III) 31.1 and 44.7%; As(V) 66.3 and 53.2%; DMA 0.42 and 0.15%. Traces of MMA were detected, and 2% of the species could not be identified. These results prove that more than 97% of the arsenic found in the hair of Napoleon is in inorganic form, which is consistent with a chronic intoxication to arsenic.     

Evaluation of the IDS One-Step ELISA kits for the detection of illicit drugs in hair

This work presents the validation of a new immunological assay, the One-Step enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) tests from International Diagnostic Systems Corp. for the screening of drugs of abuse (cannabis, amphetamines, opiates, and cocaine) in human hair, with subsequent GC-MS confirmation. After decontamination and segmentation into small pieces, 50 mg of hair sample were incubated in 1 ml of methanol during 16 h at 40 degrees C. A 100 microL aliquot was collected and evaporated to dryness in presence of 100 microL of methanol/hydrochloric acid (99:1, v/v) to avoid amphetamines loss. The dried extract was dissolved in 100 microL of the "sample and standard diluent" solution included in the kit. This solution was submitted to analysis according to the recommended instructions of the manufacturer. During the validation phase, GC-MS confirmations were conducted according to our fully validated and published methods for opiates, cocaine, cannabis, and amphetamines determinations in hair. In a last development step, these procedures were slightly modified to directly confirm ELISA results by GC-MS using the methanolic extract. Ninety-three specimens were simultaneously screened by the ELISA tests (103 for tetrahydrocannabinol (THC)) and confirmed by GC-MS. Twenty were found positive for cannabis (THC: 0.10-6.50 ng/mg), 21 for cocaine (0.50-55.20 ng/mg), 24 for opiates (6-acetylmorphine (6-AM): 0.20-11.60 ng/mg, MOR: 0.20-8.90 ng/mg, codeine (COD): 0.20-5.90 ng/mg), and 13 for amphetamines (AP: 0.20 and 0.27 ng/mg, methamphetamine (MAP): 0.30 and 1.10 ng/mg, methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA): 0.22-17.80 ng/mg). No false negative results were observed according to the Society of Hair Testing's (SoHT) cutoffs (0.5 ng/mg for cocaine, 0.2 ng/mg for opiates and amphetamines, and 0.1 ng/mg for THC). The One-Step ELISA kits appear suitable due to their sensitivity and specificity for drug of abuse screening in hair. This technology should find interest in workplace drug testing or driving license regranting, especially when many samples have to be tested with a high rate of negative samples, as ELISA is an easy and high-throughput method.