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41.
Current research on coalition formation is plagued by two serious problems. First, we cannot predict more than about one-third of the Western European governments, and, second, we do not have a good understanding of the causal mechanisms that explain the effects found in large-n coalition studies. This article illustrates that by combining statistical and case study analyses we can solve these problems. Since statistical analyses are well equipped for measuring and isolating effects, we argue that a coalition study should start with such an analysis. Predictions made in this analysis are then used to select cases. In order to study the mechanisms underlying effects found in large-n coalition studies, we argue for selecting cases that are predicted, and then applying the method of process verification. In order to find new explanatory variables, we argue for selecting cases that are deviant, and then applying the method of process induction. Substantive results of our analysis for coalition theory point to the importance of party strategies based on parties' past experiences, which aim at curtailing present and future costs of competing and governing with other parties. 相似文献
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Patrick Salmon 《Diplomacy & Statecraft》2013,24(3):602-604
ABSTRACTThis article recounts the author’s experience as a junior diplomat in the British Diplomatic Service in the late 1960s handling the file of Rudolf Hess, Hitler’s ex-deputy serving a life sentence in Spandau prison in Berlin. As the only Nazi leader still imprisoned there after the release in 1966 of Albert Speer and Baldur von Schirach, his fate as 'the lone prisoner of Spandau’had become an international issue. Sentenced at the Nuremberg trial of 1946, his fate was a matter for the four powers still occupying Berlin. Moscow was determined that as the last remaining symbol of the Hitler regime Hess should die there. In the West, however, and especially in Britain, there was a press campaign for his release that put pressure on the Foreign Office by way of letters from the public and parliamentary questions. As a desk officer for Germany, it fell to me to handle this by writing or drafting replies to the effect that as Hess was a prisoner of all four powers the decision required consent, that Moscow was adamantly opposed, and that Britain could not act unilaterally. But the real target of the press campaign, spearheaded by the Beaverbrook press through the Daily and Sunday Express, was Harold Wilson’s Labour Government. Anything that could demonstrate his alleged ‘appeasement’ of Moscow was grist to its mill. The now weeded file in the National Archives gives little hint of this politically-motivated agenda. 相似文献
44.
Patrick Lin 《Astropolitics》2013,11(3):281-294
Commercial space travel is looking more like a real possibility than science fiction, but tied to that ambition we may be held back by the gravity of emerging ethical dilemmas. This viewpoint article surveys a range of social, economic, and political questions, and critically evaluates reasons why we should explore space. The usual ethical issues related to environmental and safety concerns are just the beginning, as there are other interesting questions, such as: what would be a fair process for commercializing or claiming property in space; how likely would a separatist movement be among space settlements who want to be free and independent states; and are reasons to explore space, like for adventure, wanderlust, or “backing up the biosphere,” good enough to justify our exploration of space? The point here that we should explore space; and if we are to move forward with our journey, which may be unstoppable anyway, then we should seriously consider these issues. At the least, this would give the public more confidence—amid questions of misplaced priorities and wasteful spending, along with an increased focus on ethics in science—that we are looking ahead before we take another leap for mankind. 相似文献
45.
Patrick Overeem 《Public administration review》2008,68(1):36-45
Dwight Waldo (1913–2000) is commonly known as a “heterodox” critic of the dichotomy between politics and administration. But is this reputation supported by his writings? It seems to be primarily based on The Administrative State (1948) and other early publications, in which he conceptualized politics/administration narrowly as deciding/executing and, indeed, sharply criticized it. Waldo’s later publications, by contrast, offer much broader conceptualizations and a more ambivalent, even positive appraisal of the dichotomy. Such conceptualizations are also found in an important unpublished book Waldo worked on during several phases of his career. On the basis of these published and unpublished writings, we should reconsider Waldo’s reputation and, pursuing his line of reasoning, reconceptualize the politics–administration dichotomy as a layered construct and reappreciate it as a constitutional doctrine. 相似文献
46.
A method was developed for simultaneously analyzing cocaine (COC), benzoylecgonine (BZE), norbenzoylecgonine (BNE), norcocaine (NCOC), ecgonine (ECG), ecgonine methyl ester (EME), m-hydroxybenzoylecgonine (HBZE), anhydroecgonine methyl ester (AEME), cocaethylene (CE), norcocaethylene (NCE), and ecgonine ethyl ester (EEE) in blood, urine, and muscle. Available deuterated analogs of these analytes were used as internal standards. Proteins from blood and muscle homogenate were precipitated with cold acetonitrile. After the removal of acetonitrile by evaporation, the supernatants and urine were subjected to solid-phase extraction. The eluted analytes were converted to their hydrochloride salts and derivatized with pentafluoropropionic anhydride and 2,2,3,3,3-pentafluoro-1-propanol. The derivatized products were analyzed by a gas chromatograph (GC)/mass spectrometer by selected ion monitoring. The limit of detection (LOD) for COC, BZE, NCOC, EME, CE, NCE, and EEE was 2ng/ml, while the LODs for BNE, ECG, HBZE, and AEME were 25, 640, 50, and 13 ng/ml, respectively. This method was successfully applied in analyzing 13 case samples from aviation accident pilot fatalities and motor vehicle operators. AEME concentrations found in the 13 samples were consistent with those produced solely by the GC inlet pyrolysis of COC controls in blood. Anhydroecgonine cannot be used as a marker for the abuse of COC by smoking because it is also pyrolytically produced from COC metabolites on the GC inlet. The developed method can be effectively adopted for analyzing COC and related compounds in urine, blood, and muscle by a single extraction with increased sensitivity through formation of hydrochloride salts and using a one-step derivatization. 相似文献
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48.
Previous research has implied that alcohol availability affects the frequency of alcohol‐related crashes. This study uses multiple regression analysis to examine the influence of county‐level alcohol control policies on drug‐ and alcohol‐related arrest rates and related incidents in Arkansas. The research controls for such other county level variables that might affect alcohol related crashes as the number of law enforcement officers, median income, and population density. Findings suggest that prohibition policies do not play a systematic and significant role in reducing arrests and accidents. Further, the number of police officers per 1,000 residents is a more potent determinant of both adult and juvenile alcohol and drug arrest rates. Controlling access to alcohol may even have counterintuitive effects on behavior. 相似文献
49.
Brain, liver, rectal and environmental temperatures were continuously monitored under controlled conditions, in 117 forensic fatalities, for up to 60 h after death. Cases were studied either naked (63%) or covered with two blankets (37%). Bodies were classified into fat and thin groups. Statistical analysis and curve-fitting of the data yielded the average triple-exponential formulae for each body site and each body group. The effects of covering of the torso and body parameters such as weight, height, surface area and 'cooling size factor' (Z) on postmortem cooling are assessed and discussed. Results show that covering of the torso has a significant influence on the rate of postmortem cooling, however, there is no good correlation between the body variables and the cooling rate. 相似文献
50.
The temperatures of three body sites, namely, the brain, liver and the rectum as well as the temperature of the environment were continuously monitored, every 5-10 min, in 117 forensic cases commencing soon after death and in most cases, within 45 min postmortem. The body temperature at the moment of death was empirically determined by a computer-based extrapolation method. Thus, temperature data for the first 3h of each body site were fitted to single-exponential equations and the fitted curve was extrapolated backwards to obtain the intercept on the Y-axis (the temperature axis). The effect of body temperature at the moment of death on postmortem cooling rate is examined and factors influencing body temperature at death are discussed. Forensic fatalities associated with hyper and hypothermia are reviewed briefly. 相似文献