Risk Factors and Drivers of Financial Sustainability in Local Government: An Empirical Study

The current international crisis in public finances has made financial sustainability a key issue for governments. Although the European Union (EU) and other international organisations have recommended governments to monitor demographic and economic variables, few studies have considered the influence of these variables on financial sustainability. This paper seeks to identify and analyse the drivers and risk factors that influence the financial sustainability of local government. The findings identify both risk factors (unemployment and population aged under 16 years) and drivers (budgetary outcome) of financial sustainability, which may constitute a useful basis for decision-taking by managers and policy-makers.     

Referendum design, quorum rules and turnout

In this article, we focus on the consequences of quorum requirements for turnout in referendums. We use a rational choice, decision theoretic voting model to demonstrate that participation quorums change the incentives some electors face, inducing those who oppose changes in the status quo and expect to be in the minority to abstain. As a result, paradoxically, participation quorums decrease electoral participation. We test our model’s predictions using data for all referendums held in current European Union countries from 1970 until 2007, and show that the existence of a participation quorums increases abstention by more than ten percentage points.     

Commercialization activities in the SBIR program (part 1)

Telephone surveys were conducted over a three-year period on more than 800 Small Business Innovation Research (SBIR) Phase II projects initiated during the first three years of the program. For most of these projects, respondents were surveyed four years after receiving their Phase II award Five distinct levels of commercialization activity were identified ranging from “commercialization has occurred” (Level 1) to “commercialization is not expected” (Level 5). At the time of the survey, 12% of the projects had achieved commercialization (Level 1) and 18% were experiencing some commercialization success (Levels 1 and 2 combined). Of the participating federal agencies, the Department of Health and Human Services had by far the largest percentage of commercialized projects. For all agencies, over 60% of the respondents attributed nearly all of their projects' success to the SBIR program. Eighty-four percent stated that the technology development effort would not have been pursued without SBIR. Survey responses were also analyzed for a series of factors to determine their influence on the extent of commercialization activity. Factors included in the series are those related to the SBIR company conducting the project, the technology being developed, and marketing the product or service expected to be derived from the SBIR effort.     

Symbolism and the construction of political products: analysis of the political marketing strategies of peruvian President Alejandro Toledo

This paper introduces a discussion on how to construct and systematise symbols constructions that serve to define the guidelines for political discourses, using rhetorical methodology. It analyses the political marketing strategies of current Peruvian President Alejandro Toledo and, more specifically, his efforts to recover popularity after one‐and‐a‐half years in office. The fundamental hypothesis is that Toledo has not been able to construct a solid character (apart from being in opposition to Alberto Fujimori), who would be the protagonist in the ‘story’ of solving the real problems of the people, which, according to the opinion polls, are lack of employment, lack of opportunities, and lack of money for daily expenses. The rhetorical approach, based on Kenneth Burke's Dramatism Theory, is useful for understanding the construction of the political spectacle, the scene where all the marketing strategies and tools are applied. Copyright © 2004 Henry Stewart Publications     

Assignment of paternity in a judicial dispute between two neighbor Holstein dairy farmers

DNA profiling was used as evidence to assign paternity in a dispute between two neighbors in a judicial case of undue appropriation of cattle offspring from five alleged Holstein sires. Five offspring were genotyped using ten genetic markers (nine microsatellites and the BOLA-DRB3 locus). The computer program CERVUS was used to estimate the LOD score values and the confidence of paternity assignments. The results presented here show that three out of five paternity cases were assigned at 95% of confidence to a single sire with a LOD score ranging from 2.53 to 3.55. A fourth male was assigned using its delta value. Finally, all alleged sires were excluded from the paternity of the fifth offspring, probably due to the existence of an non-sampled male in the studied population. We concluded that the likelihood-based approach, included into CERVUS program, was a powerful tool in cattle kinship analysis when dealing with judicial dispute particularly when the dam's genotype was absent, allowing the assignments of paternity at 95% level of confidence in situations usually used by dairy and beef cattle producers in Argentine (e.g., multi-sire pasture mating).     

Postmortem vitreous humor beta-hydroxybutyrate: its utility for the postmortem interpretation of diabetes mellitus

Ketoacidotic coma is one of the most serious complications arising from diabetes mellitus, especially type I, and may be the cause of sudden death especially in diabetes type I. Since beta-hydroxybutyrate (beta-OHB) serum concentrations might provide more information on the severity of ketoacidosis, the aim of this study was to evaluate the concentrations of beta-OHB in vitreous humor and its correlation with other biochemical parameters during postmortem examination. We intended to ascertain the sensitivity and the specificity of these markers for diagnosing diabetes mellitus and the presence of ketoacidosis. This study involved 453 cadavers with a mean age of 57.6 years (S.D. 20.7) and a mean postmortem interval of 17.8 h (S.D. 9.6, range 2-61 h). Cases were assigned to two diagnostic groups according to the antemortem diagnosis of diabetes mellitus, based on the patients' medical records. In vitreous humor statistically significant differences were found in biochemical marker concentrations between the two diagnostic groups, the highest values being obtained in the group of subjects with a previous diagnosis of diabetes mellitus. The measurement of beta-OHB in vitreous humor may be a useful alternative to using blood during postmortem analysis. The presence of high levels of beta-OHB may help interpret the cause of death in diabetics when the autopsy result is negative.     

Disaffected democrats: Political attitudes and political action in Portugal

Three decades after the fall of the Portuguese authoritarian regime, support for democracy has become widespread among the mass public. However, similarities between Portugal and other more established democracies should not be overestimated. In most of the latter, several studies have found increasing political and civic activism on the part of pro-democratic and politically sophisticated citizens, who are nevertheless increasingly dissatisfied with democratic performance. However, the most prevalent and consequential attitudinal-behavioural syndrome in Portugal is less one of ‘democratic dissatisfaction’ than one of ‘democratic disaffection’, entailing low levels of political engagement and participation.     

Psychological and behavioral adjustment in female youths with high or low psychopathic traits

The aim of the present study was to analyze the role of psychopathic traits in female juvenile delinquency. Using a sample of 236 young females from the Juvenile Detention Centers of the Portuguese Ministry of Justice and schools in the Lisbon area, a group of female youths with high psychopathic traits (n = 118; M = 15.84 years of age; range = 14–18 years of age) and a group of female youths with low psychopathic traits (n = 118; M = 15.77 years of age; range = 14–18 years of age) were formed based on the Portuguese version of the Antisocial Process Screening Device-Self-report (APSD-SR). The results showed that young females with high psychopathic traits start engaging in criminal activities and come into contact with the justice system earlier in life; exhibit higher levels of behavioral problems, conduct disorder, delinquent behaviors and serious criminality; and demonstrate lower levels of self-esteem and pro-social behavior. The importance of some variables in predicting group membership (high versus low psychopathic traits) was established through a binary logistic regression. Our findings reinforce the importance of the psychopathy construct for the early identification of potentially high-risk female youths and for the assessment of female youths who have already come into contact with the judicial system.     

Influence of multiple injections of human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) on urine and serum endogenous steroids concentrations

Since it is established that human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) affects testosterone production and release in the human body, the use of this hormone as a performance enhancing drug has been prohibited by the World Anti-Doping Agency. Nowadays, the only validated biomarker of a hCG doping is its direct quantification in urine. However, this specific parameter is subjected to large inter-individual variability and its determination is directly dependent on the reliability of hCG immunoassays used. In order to counteract these weaknesses, new biomarkers need to be evidenced. To address this issue, a pilot clinical study was performed on 10 volunteers submitted to 3 subsequent hCG injections. Blood and urine samples were collected during two weeks in order to follow the physiological effects on related compounds such as the steroid profile or hormones involved in the hypothalamo-pituitary axis. The hCG pharmacokinetic observed in all subjects was, as expected, prone to important inter-individual variations. Using ROC plots, level of testosterone and testosterone on luteinizing hormone ratio in both blood and urine were found to be the most relevant biomarker of a hCG abuse, regardless of inter-individual variations. In conclusion, this study showed the crucial importance of reliable quantification methods to assess low differences in hormonal patterns. In regard to these results and to anti-doping requirements and constraints, blood together with urine matrix should be included in the anti-doping testing program. Together with a longitudinal follow-up approach it could constitute a new strategy to detect a hCG abuse, applicable to further forms of steroid or other forbidden drug manipulation.