Patterns of intra-election volatility: the impact of political knowledge*

One key trend changing political environments across advanced industrial democracies is increasing electoral volatility. Despite extensive research, at the individual level we still know relatively little about the mechanisms behind electoral volatility during election campaigns, including the impact of political knowledge. Against this background and based on a four-wave panel study in the context of the 2014 Swedish national election, the purpose of this paper is to investigate (a) patterns of intra-election volatility and the impact of (b) political knowledge on patterns of electoral volatility. Distinguishing between party alienation, crystallization, wavering, reinforcement, and conversion, among other things, findings show some effects from political knowledge on patterns of electoral volatility but only for acquired political knowledge.     

Keeping a watchful eye in times of turmoil? How repeated structural reform leads to more attention to political signals

An important rationale for the creation of semi-autonomous agencies is to create some distance between politics and administration. As such, agencies are expected to shield policy implementation from the daily concerns of political life. However, political actors and politically controlled ministries still influence agencies in various intended and unintended ways. This article focuses on intensive long-term series of structural reforms and how they may undermine the original design philosophy underpinning agencification. We utilize a dataset combining staff surveys and a structural reform database to perform multilevel analyses of employees nested in organizations. We find that the frequency with which agencies have experienced structural reform affects the weight that employees attach to signals from political and ministerial principals. Frequent structural reform may lead to heightened perceptions of the importance of political signals. Hence, frequent structural reforms may increase the risk of political influence on agencies that were designed to operate impartially.     

Eliciting Cues to False Intent: A New Application of Strategic Interviewing

This article examined how to elicit cues to deception when a suspect is asked both about his/her intentions and his/her corresponding past planning, and when the investigator holds evidence on the suspect’s planning activities. In a new experimental set-up accommodating the main characteristics of intent, participants (N = 120) either planned a criminal or a non-criminal act. They were intercepted before completing the planned act. Each participant was interviewed in accordance with one of three interview techniques: Early Evidence disclosure or one of two versions of the Strategic Use of Evidence (SUE) technique. All the interviews were transcribed and scored for consistency. As predicted, the liars were perceived as having a higher degree of inconsistency for two of the three relevant comparisons (Statement on Planning–Evidence on Planning; Statement on Intent–Evidence on Planning). Furthermore, using the evidence strategically resulted in differences between liars and truth tellers being magnified, as predicted. This article advances previous findings in showing that by interviewing strategically with respect to the evidence, it is possible to elicit reliable cues to deception when a suspect is asked about intentions and corresponding planning activities.     

Relative effects of posture and activity on human height estimation from surveillance footage

Height estimations based on security camera footage are often requested by law enforcement authorities. While valid and reliable techniques have been established to determine vertical distances from video frames, there is a discrepancy between a person's true static height and their height as measured when assuming different postures or when in motion (e.g., walking). The aim of the research presented in this report was to accurately record the height of subjects as they performed a variety of activities typically observed in security camera footage and compare results to height recorded using a standard height measuring device. Forty-six able bodied adults participated in this study and were recorded using a 3D motion analysis system while performing eight different tasks. Height measurements captured using the 3D motion analysis system were compared to static height measurements in order to determine relative differences. It is anticipated that results presented in this report can be used by forensic image analysis experts as a basis for correcting height estimations of people captured on surveillance footage.     

Polytraumatization and trauma symptoms in adolescent boys and girls: interpersonal and noninterpersonal events and moderating effects of adverse family circumstances

The objective of this study was to investigate the cumulative effect of interpersonal and noninterpersonal traumatic life events (IPEs and nIPEs, respectively) on the mental health of adolescents and to determine if the adverse impacts of trauma were moderated by adverse family circumstances (AFC). Adolescents (mean age 16.7 years) from the normative population (n = 462) completed the questionnaire, the Link?ping Youth Life Experience Scale (LYLES), together with Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC). The lifetime accumulation of interpersonal, noninterpersonal, and AFC was independently related to trauma-related symptoms in both boys and girls. The number of AFCs moderated the mental health impact of both IPEs and nIPEs in boys but not in girls. Cumulative exposure to both interpersonal and noninterpersonal traumatic events is important for the mental health of adolescents, and, at least for boys, family circumstances seem to be relevant for the impact of trauma. Our results suggest that broader approaches to the study, prevention, and treatment of trauma, including consideration of cumulative exposure, different types of trauma, and additional social risk factors, could be fruitful.     

Participation in local politics in Norway: Some do,some don't; some will,some won't

Using data from two national surveys conducted in 1990 and 1993, this article investigates seven modes of sociopolitical behavior and one form of potential political participation in the context of Norwegian local government. Results indicate that factors associated with alternative modes of activity vary; different types of people tend to choose different channels of involvement. The most pronounced difference is found between activities directed toward influencing public opinion and those intended to influence political decision making more directly. Whereas the former mode is more typically chosen by younger, well-educated single women living in urban areas, the latter is more characteristic of married, better educated men living in smaller municipalities. Findings are characterized by a high degree of stability over the period considered. Only in the case of voting is there a suggestion of some possible change. After decades in which socioeconomic status variables have been of little significance for voting in Norway (a situation explained by the mobilizing effects of organizations), an effect of education was found in the 1993 survey. Also noteworthy is the distribution of participation among the population: rather than being cumulative, different forms of political involvement are relatively widespread.     

Collusion, Collective Action and Protection: Theory and Evidence

This paper provides a novel explanation forthe formation of protectionist lobby groupsin imperfectly competitive sectors. Thelevel of collusion is shown to be a crucialdeterminant of the ability of firms tosustain lobbying. We show that greatercollusion reduces firm contributionsto tariff lobbying, when the governmentvalues welfare sufficiently and thecross-price elasticity between the domesticand foreign goods is sufficiently high. The empirical evidence from the U.S.supports the theory. Greater collusionreduces the level of PAC contributions.     

Local Government and Welfare Generosity: Municipality Spending on Social Welfare

Although it is difficult for local governments to give support for social welfare recipients top political priority, there are huge variations in the support recipients actually receive among Norwegian municipalities. However, local governments representing different party ideologies may prefer to support different dimensions of generosity. Some municipalities could have a liberal attitude to eligibility rules but be strict on time limits and the amount of money provided. Others may be generous regarding time limits or amounts received once one is accepted as a welfare client. Data from the mid 1990s indicate the variation in support is related to different generosity dimensions for different party groups. While the total number of clients seems unrelated to politics and basically correlates with local social problems, the duration and amount of support are related to the political composition of the municipality assembly. Devoid of any large variation, both time limits and the amount of support increase in accordance with socialist leanings, and the total budget used for social welfare support also increases with the proportion of women in the municipality assembly.     

Democratic institutions versus autocratic regimes: The case of environmental policy

The literature suggests that democracy positively affects environmental policy stringency. Using the method of propensity score matching, we find that this result appears to be largely driven by the parliamentary democracies (as opposed to the presidential-congressional, proportional or majority systems). Moreover, it appears that presidential-congressional systems often set environmental policies not significantly different from autocracies. These are novel contributions to the literature.     

The Local Party Organization and Its Members: Between Randomness and Rationality*

In this article we shall argue the importance of approaching the relationship between party organizations and party members by analyzing the interaction between characteristics of the national party system, the party organization as a more or less open or closed system, and the resources of individuals particularly conducive to party membership. We shall mainly discuss the organizational level, taking as a starting point different models from organizational theory: the rational behaviour model, the survival model, the bureaucratic model, and the symbolic action model. We apply these models in our search for how political parties seek to mobilize members. Examples illustrating the relevance of the different models are a warning to those who wish to develop a general theory of party organization.