Forecasting the 2013 German Bundestag Election Using Many Polls and Historical Election Results

This article reports on an attempt to forecast the outcome of the 2013 election to the German Bundestag. In contrast to the predominant academic approach to forecast incumbent vote shares from measures of government popularity, economic conditions and other fundamental variables, we entirely relied on data from published trial heat polls. Opposite to common practice in the news media, we did not take isolated polls as election forecasts in their own right. Instead, we used historical data to assess empirically the relationship between polls and election outcomes, and combined extrapolations from current polls in a Bayesian manner. The forecast was published one month ahead of the election. The retrospective evaluation of our method was added after the election. While our method is parsimonious and provides a large lead time, the performance at the 2013 election was underwhelming. We offer additional suggestions how the approach can be improved in future scenarios.     

Spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) for the analysis and detection of packaged pharmaceuticals and concealed drugs

Spatially offset Raman spectroscopy (SORS) is a powerful new technique for the non-invasive detection and identification of concealed substances and drugs. Here, we demonstrate the SORS technique in several scenarios that are relevant to customs screening, postal screening, drug detection and forensics applications. The examples include analysis of a multi-layered postal package to identify a concealed substance; identification of an antibiotic capsule inside its plastic blister pack; analysis of an envelope containing a powder; and identification of a drug dissolved in a clear solvent, contained in a non-transparent plastic bottle. As well as providing practical examples of SORS, the results highlight several considerations regarding the use of SORS in the field, including the advantages of different analysis geometries and the ability to tailor instrument parameters and optics to suit different types of packages and samples. We also discuss the features and benefits of SORS in relation to existing Raman techniques, including confocal microscopy, wide area illumination and the conventional backscattered Raman spectroscopy. The results will contribute to the recognition of SORS as a promising method for the rapid, chemically specific analysis and detection of drugs and pharmaceuticals.     

Explaining the Consequences of Imprisonment for Union Formation and Dissolution in Denmark

Crime and subsequent imprisonment reduces men's chances on the marriage market and increases their divorce risk, but existing research, with a few notable exceptions, is silent about the underlying mechanisms driving these effects. This article studies the effect of home confinement under electronic monitoring as a noncustodial alternative to imprisonment on the risk of relationship dissolution and being single, thereby distinguishing between effects of incarceration and of committing crime. We study a policy that expanded the use of electronic monitoring to address nonrandom selection into electronic monitoring instead of in prison. Results from a sample of 4,522 men show that home confinement under electronic monitoring significantly and persistently lowers the risk both of being single and of becoming single during the first five years following conviction. The results show that one of the tools that could promote decarceration trends also secures better relationship outcomes of convicted men.     

Southeast Asia and the Golden Triangle's Heroin Trade: Threat and Response

The Golden Triangle of Southeast Asia lies at the heart of the global heroin trade, accounting for roughly 60 percent of all illicit opium production. Narcotics from this part of the world have had an insidious, corrosive, far reaching and, at times, highly destabilizing impact. In particular, they have been linked to an explosion of AIDS, social instability, a lack of economic performance, official corruption and the growing force of organized crime. These effects have been felt, in one form or another throughout Southeast Asia, North America, Australasia, and Northeast Asia. Dealing with the threat posed by the Golden Triangles heroin trade will require a fully inclusive strategy that emphasizes both supply disruption and demand reduction. While certain Southeast Asian states have pledged to intensify the scope and effectiveness of their drug policies, official apathy is widespread and continues to mitigate against effective counter-measures.     

The Reliability of Facial Recognition of Deceased Persons on Photographs

In humanitarian emergencies, such as the current deceased migrants in the Mediterranean, antemortem documentation needed for identification may be limited. The use of visual identification has been previously reported in cases of mass disasters such as Thai tsunami. This pilot study explores the ability of observers to match unfamiliar faces of living and dead persons and whether facial morphology can be used for identification. A questionnaire was given to 41 students and five professionals in the field of forensic identification with the task to choose whether a facial photograph corresponds to one of the five photographs in a lineup and to identify the most useful features used for recognition. Although the overall recognition score did not significantly differ between professionals and students, the median scores of 78.1% and 80.0%, respectively, were too low to consider this method as a reliable identification method and thus needs to be supported by other means.     

Soilwater Conductivity Analysis to Date and Locate Clandestine Graves of Homicide Victims

In homicide investigations, it is critically important that postmortem interval and postburial interval (PBI) of buried victims are determined accurately. However, clandestine graves can be difficult to locate; and the detection rates for a variety of search methods (ranging from simple ground probing through to remote imaging and near‐surface geophysics) can be very low. In this study, simulated graves of homicide victims were emplaced in three sites with contrasting soil types, bedrock, and depositional environments. The long‐term monthly in situ monitoring of grave soil water revealed rapid increases in conductivity up to 2 years after burial, with the longest study evidencing declining values to background levels after 4.25 years. Results were corrected for site temperatures and rainfall to produce generic models of fluid conductivity as a function of time. The research suggests soilwater conductivity can give reliable PBI estimates for clandestine burials and therefore be used as a grave detection method.