Notes on the empirical analysis of cyclical processes

Abstract. This short note discusses a few general data-related problems which occur in analyses of cyclical processes, and offers a brief overview of the advantages and disadvantages of the various approaches and techniques that can be employed. The conclusion is that one should be flexible in approach; it is always possible to model data in more than one way. A prudent strategy will always include the specification and testing of various models.     

MI 6's Requirements Directorate: Integrating Intelligence into the Machinery of British Central Government

The following article examines the relationship between the British Secret Intelli-gence Service (SIS, a.k.a. MI 6) and the machinery of central government, particularly departments of state and other agencies which employ information generated by the SIS. It is argued the main link between the SIS and its consumers in British government is the SIS's requirements 'side', embodied throughout most of the post-war era in the form of a Requirements Directorate. The article argues that the Requirements mechanism operates as a line of communication between the SIS and its consumers separate from the Cabinet Office Joint Intelligence Organisation (JIO), although there is overlap and interdependency between the two architectures. This discussion traces the development of the 'requirements side' from the interwar period up to the post-Cold War era using information from archival sources and a programme of interviews with former UK intelligence officials. It is further argued that the structure and process of the SIS 'requirements side' has developed and changed as a consequence of changes in the structure of demand in the machinery of British government, including adapting to the increasingly central role of the JIO. However, despite that increasingly central role of the JIO, the 'requirements side' has continued to serve as the first point of contact between the SIS and its customers in Whitehall.     

Reviews

Holland Hunter & Janusz M. Szyrmer, Faulty Foundations: Soviet Economic Policies, 1928–1940. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992, xvi + 339 pp., $49.50, £33.00

Peter Rutland, The politics of economic stagnation in the Soviet Union. The role of local party organs in economic management. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993, xv + 297 pp., £40.00.

Saul Estrin & Martin Cave, eds, Competition and Competition Policy. London: Pinter Publishers, 1993, xi + 143 pp., £35.00.

Pekka Sutela, ed., The Russian Economy in Crisis and Transition. Helsinki: Bank of Finland, 1993, 192 pp., no price.

Sheila M. Puffer, ed., The Russian Management Revolution: Preparing Managers for the Market Economy. Armonk, NY, M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxi + 290 pages, $59.95 h/b, $19.95 p/b.

Alan Smith, Russia and the World Economy: Problems of Integration. London: Routledge, 1993, 253 pp., £37.50 h/b, £12.99 p/b.

Walter C. Clemens, Jr., Baltic Independence and Russian Empire. London: Macmillan, 1991, xxii + 346 pp., £45.00.

John Fitzmaurice, The Baltic—A Regional Future? New York, St Martin's Press Inc., 1992, xi + 171 pp., £35.00.

Jan Arveds Trapans, ed., Toward Independence. The Baltic Popular Movements, Boulder, CO, San Francisco, CA, Oxford, Westview Press/Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1991, 166 pp., £18.95.

Henryk J. Flakierski, Income Inequalities in the Former Soviet Union and its Republics. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993, vii + 87 pp., $24.95 p/b.

Jan Winiecki, Post‐Soviet‐Type Economies in Transition. Aldershot: Avebury, 1993, v + pp. £35.00.

Roger Clarke, Ed., Privatisation: An International Symposium. Papers and Discussion from a Conference in Bled, Slovenia, 6–9 February 1992. London: The Centre for Research into Communist Economies, 1992, 133 pp., £6.50.

Sheila Fitzpatrick, The Cultural Front: Power and Culture in Revolutionary Russia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992, xx + 264 pp., $13.95 p/b.

Sharin Rai, Hilary Pilkington & Annie Phizacklea, eds, Women in the Face of Change: The Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. London: Routledge, 1992, x + 227 pp., £10.99 p/b.

Bertram Silverman, Robert Vogt & Murray Yanowitch, eds, Labor and Democracy in the Transition to a Market System: A US‐Post‐Soviet Dialogue. Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxii + 228 pp., $59.95 h/b, $19.95 p/b.

David Shepherd, Beyond Metafiction. Self‐Consciousness in Soviet Literature. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, xii + 260 pp., £30.00.

Donald D. Barry, ed., with the assistance of Louis Rodriguez, Toward the ‘Rule of Law’ in Russia? Political and Legal Reform in the Transition Period. Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxv + 402 pp., $90.00.

Hugh D. Phillips, Between the Revolution and the West: A Political Biography of Maxim M. Litvinov. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1992, xii + 244 pp., £19.95.

Kitty Weaver, Bushels of Rubles. Soviet Youth in Transition, Westport, & London CT: Praeger, 1993, vii + 216 pp., £40.50.     

Public choice and public policy: The vulnerability of economic advice to the interpretation of politicians

The confidence with which politicians defend their policies is in marked contrast to the qualifications which academic researchers attach to their results. The difference is indicative of a failure of the political market, whereby politicians have an incentive to select policies for electoral and ideological reasons and to minimise any uncertainty associated with policy effectiveness. In this scenario dissension between economists is of value if it alerts individuals to the sensitivity of policy answers to the framework in which they are derived. Moreover, with government failure, public choice analysts are faced with the problem of how best to amend policy advice in order to allow for potential distortion at the hands of politicians.The authors are Senior Lecturers in Economics and Members of the Centre for Fiscal Studies, University of Bath. They wish to acknowledge the very helpful comments of Professors Gordon Tullock, Harry Collins and an anonymous referee. Any errors that might remain are, of course, the sole responsibility of the authors.     

The Baghdad railway: Its new rôle in the Middle East

General

Gardens of Paradise: The History and Design of the Great Islamic Gardens. By John Brookes. London, Weidenfeld &; Nicolson, 1987. Pp. 240. Maps. Bibliog. Index. Chronology. Illus. £20.00.

The European Miracle: Environments, Economies and Geopolitics in the History of Europe and Asia. By E. L. Jones. Cambridge University Press, 1988. Pp. 279. Bibliog. Index. £27.50 Hb, £9.95 Pb.

Expansion of Third World Navies. By Michael A. Morris. London. Macmillan, 1987. Pp. 293: Index £35.00.

Central Asia

Searches for an Imaginary Kingdom ‐ the Legend of the Kingdom of Prester John. By Lev Nikolaevich Gumilev. Translated from the Russian by R. E. F. Smith, Cambridge University Press, 1987. Pp. 403. Bibliog. Index. Maps. (First published in Russian, under the title: Poiski vymyshlennogo Tsarstva: legenda o Gosudarstve presvitera Ioanna, Moscow, 1970). £37.50.

Buried Treasures of Chinese Turkestan. By Albert von Le Coq. Hong Kong. Oxford University Press, 1987. Pp. 180. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £8.50 Pb.

The Tragedy of Afghanistan: the Social, Cultural and Political Impact of the Soviet Invasion. Edited by Bo Huldt and Erland Jansson. London, Croom Helm, 1988. Pp. 270. Index. £27.50.

South Asia

The New Cambridge History of India. Vol. II 1. Indian Society and the Making of the British Empire. By Dr. C. A. Bayly. Cambridge University Press, 1988. Pp. 206. Gloss. Bibliographical Essay. Index. £17.50.

The New Cambridge History of India, II, 2: Bengal: the British Bridgehead: Eastern India 1740–1828. By P. J. Marshall. Cambridge University Press, 1988. Pp. 195. Index. Maps. £17.50.

India and Tibet. By Francis Younghusband. Hong Kong, Oxford University Press, 1985. Pp. 455. Illus. Maps. Index. £21.00.

Below the Peacock Fan: First Ladies of the Raj. By Marian Fowler. New York, Viking, 1987. Pp. 337. Illus. Notes. Bibliog. $19.95.

Mediaevalism to Modernism: Socio‐economic and Cultural History of Hyderabad 1869–1911. By Sheela Raj. London, Sangam Books, 1987. Pp. 340. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £19.95.

The Days of the Beloved. By Harriet Ronken Lynton and Mohini Rajan. London, Sangam Books, 1988. Pp. 279. Illus. £11.95.

South Asia: The Narrowing Options. Economist Intelligence Unit Special Report No. 110. By Brian Slocock. London. Economist Intelligence Unit. 1988. Pp. 119. Map. £115.00 Pb.

The Cat and the Lion. Robert W. Stern. Leiden, E. J. Brill, 1988. Pp. 331. Bibliog. Index. $56.00.

Tribal Guerrillas: The Santals of West Bengal and the Naxalite Movement. By Edward Duyker. Delhi, Oxford University Press, 1987. Pp. 201. Illus. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £11.95.

The Political Economy of Pakistan, 1947–85. By Omar Noman. London, KPI, 1988. Pp. 218. Bibliog. Index. £25.00.

Banditry in Islam: Case Studies from Morocco, Algeria and the Pakistan North West Frontier. By David M. Hart. London Middle East and North African Studies Press, 1987. Pp. 86. Maps.

Sri Lanka: A History. By Chandra Richard de Silva. London, Sangam books, 1987. Pp. 316. Illus. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £14.95.

Crime, Justice and Society in Colonial Sri Lanka. By John D. Rogers. Curzon Riverdale, 1987. Pp. 270. Appendices. Bibliog. Index. No price stated.

South‐East Asia

ASEAN at the Crossroads. Ed. by Noordin Sopiee, Chewhay See and Lim Siang Jin. Kuala Lumpur. ISIS, Malaysia, 1987. Pp. 577. $25.00.

Financing East Asia's Success. By Michael Skully and George Viksnis, London, Macmillan, 1987. Tables. Bibliog. Index. £29.50.

The Commerce in Rubber ‐ The First 250 Years. By Austin Coates. Oxford University Press, Singapore, 1987. Pp. 380. Illus. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £25.

Government and Politics in Singapore. Ed. Jon S. T. Quah, Chan Heng Chee and Seah Chee Meow. Southeast Asian Studies Program, Oxford University Press, Singapore, 1987. Tables, Bibliog. Index. Pp. 338. £11.50.

On the Road to Tribal Extinction: Depopulation, Deculturation, and Adaptive Well‐Being Among the Batak of the Philippines. By James F. Eder. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1987. Pp. 276. Maps. Notes. Index. $38.00.

Land, Poverty and Politics in the Philippines. By Mamerto Canlas, Mariano Miranda Jr., and James Putzel. London, Catholic Institute for International Relations, 1988. Pp. 87. Map. Index. £4.95.

Punishing the Poor: The International Isolation of Kampuchea. By Eva Mysliwiec. Oxford, Oxfam Publications, 1988. Pp. 172. £3.95. Pb. £14.95 Hb.

Middle East

Israel and the American National Interest ‐ A Critical Examination. By Cheryl A. Rubenberg. Urbana and Chicago. University of Illinois Press, 1986. Pp. 446. Index. $24.95.

The Zealous Intruders: The Western Rediscovery of Palestine. By Naomi Shepherd. London, Collins, 1987. Pp. 282. Illus. Map. Bibliog. Index. Price not stated.

Far East

The Cambridge History of China. Volume 13. Republican China 1912–1949, Part 2. Edited by John K. Fairbank and Albert Feuerwerker. Cambridge University Press, 1986. Pp. 1111. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £60.00.

The Cambridge History of China. General Editors, Denis Twitchett and John K. Fairbank. Volume 14, The People's Republic, Part 1: The Emergence of Revolutionary China, 1949–1965. Edited by R. L. MacFarquhar and J. K. Fairbank. Cambridge University Press, 1987. Pp. 722. Bibliographical Essays. Bibliog. Gloss. Index. £50.00.

The Archaeology of Ancient China. Fourth edition, revised and enlarged. By Kwang‐Chih Chang. New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1987. Pp. 475. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £45.00 Hb. £14.95. Pb.

A Dream of Red Mansions. By Ts'ao Hsüeh‐ch'in and Kao Ngo, (tr. Yang Hsien‐yi and Gladys Yang). London, Unwin Paperbacks, 1986. Pp. 499. £7.95 Pb.

Outlaws of the Marsh. By Shih Nai‐an and Lo Kuan‐chung (tr. Sidney Shapiro). London, Unwin Paperbacks, 1986, Pp. 458. £7.95 Pb.

Chinese Society in the Eighteenth Century. By Susan Naquin and Evelyn S. Rawski. New Haven and London, Yale University Press, 1987. Pp. 288. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £22.50 US $35.00.

The Origins of the Boxer Uprising. By Joseph W. Esherick. Berkeley, University of California Press, 1987. Pp. 451. Illus. Maps. Bibliog. Index. $45.00.

The Communist Party of China and Marxism 1921–1985: A Self‐Portrait. By Laszlo Ladany. London, C Hurst &; Co 1988. Pp. 588. Bibliog. Index. £32.50.

The Sino‐Soviet Confrontation since Mao Zedong. Dispute, Detente, or Conflict? By Alfred D. Low. Social Science Monographs, Boulder, 1987. Distributed by Columbia University Press. Pp. 332. Notes. Bibliog. $40.

Education and Socialist Modernization ‐ A Documentary History of Education in the People's Republic of China, 1977–1988. Edited by Shi Ming Hu and Eli Seifman. New York, AMS Press, 1987. Pp. 229. $62.50.

East Asian Conflict Zones. Ed. Lawrence E. Grinter and Young Whan Khil. Basingstoke, Macmillan Press, 1988. Pp. 239. Map. Notes. Bibliog. Index. £29.50.

Visions of Virtue in Tokugawa Japan: The Kaitokudō Merchant Academy of Osaka. By Tetsuo Najita. Chicago and London, The University of Chicago Press. 1987. Pp. 344. Index. £29.95. Hb. £11.95 Pb.

Japan in the Victorian Mind: A Study of Stereotyped Images of a Nation, 1850–1880. By Toshio Yokoyama. London, St Antony's/Macmillan, 1987. Pp. 233. Illus. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £27.50.

Fire Across the Sea: The Vietnam War and Japan, 1965–1975. Princeton University Press, 1987. Pp. 329. Illus. Notes. Index. £25.00. Hb. £11.70. Pb.

The Monkey as Mirror: Symbolic Transformations in Japanese History and Ritual. By Emiko Ohnuki‐Tierney. Princeton, Princeton University Press, 1987. Pp. 269. Illus. Index. Bibliog. £18.75.

Dōgen Kigen: Mystical Realist. By Hee‐Jin Kim. Tucson, University of Arizona Press, 1987. Pp. 324. Bibliog. Index. $18.95 Pb.

Hong Kong in Transition. Ed. Joseph Y. S. Cheng. Hong Kong, Oxford University Press, 1987. Pp. 457. £8.95. Pb.

Chinese Christians: Elites, Middlemen, and the Church in Hong Kong. By Carl Smith. Oxford University Press, 1985, 1988. Pp. 252. Chronology. Plates. Notes. Index. £15.00.

Siberia and the Soviet Far East: Strategic Dimensions in Multinational Perspective. Ed. Rodger Swearingen. Stanford, Hoover Institution Press, Stanford University, 1987. Pp. 298. Index. $32.95.

Shorter notes

Soviet Economic Assistance to the Less Developed Countries. By Quintin V. S. Bach. Oxford University Press, 1987. Pp. 175. Bibliog. £27.50.

The Tibet Guide. By Stephen Batchelor. London, Wisdom Publications, 1987. Pp. 466. Illus. Index. £13.95 Pb.

The Second Afghan War 1878–1880 Casualty Roll. Compiled by Anthony Far‐rington. The London Stamp Exchange Limited, 1987. Pp. 189. (A4) £14.95.

Indian General Service Medal 1895 Casualty Roll. Compiled by Anthony Far‐rington. The London stamp Exchange limited, 1987. Pp. 166. (A4) £14.95.

The Makers of Indian Colonial Silver 1760–1860. Wynyard R. T. Wilkinson. London, W. R. T. Wilkinson, 1987. Pp. 229. Illus. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £97.50.

Kashmir. By Raghubir Singh. London, Thames and Hudson, 1987. Pp. 32. Illus. Map. £9.95 Pb.

Bangladesh: Politics, Economy and Society. Ed. Chowdhury E. Haque. Winnipeg, Bangladesh Studies Assemblage, University of Manitoba, 1987. Pp. 139. Price not stated.

Course for Disaster: From Scapa to the River Kwai. By Richard Pool. London, Leo Cooper, 1987. Pp. 196. £13.95.

Medieval Persia 1040–1797. By David Morgan. Longman, London and New York, 1988. Pp. 197. Bibliog. Index. £15.95 Hb. £7.95 Pb.

Iron in the Fire: the Chinese Potters’ Exploration of Iron‐oxide Glazes. London, The Oriental Ceramic Society, 1988. Intro. Plates. £16 (incl. postage).