The changing role of social experiments in policy analysis

Since 1968 more than thirty-five social policy experiments have been conducted in the United States. During this period through 1976 these experiments were generally long-term, large-scale tests of major new programs; thereafter, experiments became markedly more modest in scope. Although hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on the earlier programs, the experiments probably had only a negligible impact on policies. This result stemmed from a variety of factors: Social testing actually tends to exert a conservative influence on policymaking; and the time required to complete experiments and interpret results is often incompatible with the needs of policy makers. In addition, test results are often not effectively communicated to Congress, the administration and the public, and even when the results are conveyed, policy makers are frequently skeptical about the soundness of the methodologies employed. If recent experimental programs are to exert more influence on policymaking, program oficials will need to address these dificulties.     

Notes on the empirical analysis of cyclical processes

Abstract. This short note discusses a few general data-related problems which occur in analyses of cyclical processes, and offers a brief overview of the advantages and disadvantages of the various approaches and techniques that can be employed. The conclusion is that one should be flexible in approach; it is always possible to model data in more than one way. A prudent strategy will always include the specification and testing of various models.     

MI 6's Requirements Directorate: Integrating Intelligence into the Machinery of British Central Government

The following article examines the relationship between the British Secret Intelli-gence Service (SIS, a.k.a. MI 6) and the machinery of central government, particularly departments of state and other agencies which employ information generated by the SIS. It is argued the main link between the SIS and its consumers in British government is the SIS's requirements 'side', embodied throughout most of the post-war era in the form of a Requirements Directorate. The article argues that the Requirements mechanism operates as a line of communication between the SIS and its consumers separate from the Cabinet Office Joint Intelligence Organisation (JIO), although there is overlap and interdependency between the two architectures. This discussion traces the development of the 'requirements side' from the interwar period up to the post-Cold War era using information from archival sources and a programme of interviews with former UK intelligence officials. It is further argued that the structure and process of the SIS 'requirements side' has developed and changed as a consequence of changes in the structure of demand in the machinery of British government, including adapting to the increasingly central role of the JIO. However, despite that increasingly central role of the JIO, the 'requirements side' has continued to serve as the first point of contact between the SIS and its customers in Whitehall.     

Reviews

Holland Hunter & Janusz M. Szyrmer, Faulty Foundations: Soviet Economic Policies, 1928–1940. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 1992, xvi + 339 pp., $49.50, £33.00

Peter Rutland, The politics of economic stagnation in the Soviet Union. The role of local party organs in economic management. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1993, xv + 297 pp., £40.00.

Saul Estrin & Martin Cave, eds, Competition and Competition Policy. London: Pinter Publishers, 1993, xi + 143 pp., £35.00.

Pekka Sutela, ed., The Russian Economy in Crisis and Transition. Helsinki: Bank of Finland, 1993, 192 pp., no price.

Sheila M. Puffer, ed., The Russian Management Revolution: Preparing Managers for the Market Economy. Armonk, NY, M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxi + 290 pages, $59.95 h/b, $19.95 p/b.

Alan Smith, Russia and the World Economy: Problems of Integration. London: Routledge, 1993, 253 pp., £37.50 h/b, £12.99 p/b.

Walter C. Clemens, Jr., Baltic Independence and Russian Empire. London: Macmillan, 1991, xxii + 346 pp., £45.00.

John Fitzmaurice, The Baltic—A Regional Future? New York, St Martin's Press Inc., 1992, xi + 171 pp., £35.00.

Jan Arveds Trapans, ed., Toward Independence. The Baltic Popular Movements, Boulder, CO, San Francisco, CA, Oxford, Westview Press/Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 1991, 166 pp., £18.95.

Henryk J. Flakierski, Income Inequalities in the Former Soviet Union and its Republics. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993, vii + 87 pp., $24.95 p/b.

Jan Winiecki, Post‐Soviet‐Type Economies in Transition. Aldershot: Avebury, 1993, v + pp. £35.00.

Roger Clarke, Ed., Privatisation: An International Symposium. Papers and Discussion from a Conference in Bled, Slovenia, 6–9 February 1992. London: The Centre for Research into Communist Economies, 1992, 133 pp., £6.50.

Sheila Fitzpatrick, The Cultural Front: Power and Culture in Revolutionary Russia. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1992, xx + 264 pp., $13.95 p/b.

Sharin Rai, Hilary Pilkington & Annie Phizacklea, eds, Women in the Face of Change: The Soviet Union, Eastern Europe and China. London: Routledge, 1992, x + 227 pp., £10.99 p/b.

Bertram Silverman, Robert Vogt & Murray Yanowitch, eds, Labor and Democracy in the Transition to a Market System: A US‐Post‐Soviet Dialogue. Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxii + 228 pp., $59.95 h/b, $19.95 p/b.

David Shepherd, Beyond Metafiction. Self‐Consciousness in Soviet Literature. Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1992, xii + 260 pp., £30.00.

Donald D. Barry, ed., with the assistance of Louis Rodriguez, Toward the ‘Rule of Law’ in Russia? Political and Legal Reform in the Transition Period. Armonk, NY and London: M. E. Sharpe, 1992, xxv + 402 pp., $90.00.

Hugh D. Phillips, Between the Revolution and the West: A Political Biography of Maxim M. Litvinov. Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1992, xii + 244 pp., £19.95.

Kitty Weaver, Bushels of Rubles. Soviet Youth in Transition, Westport, & London CT: Praeger, 1993, vii + 216 pp., £40.50.     

Public choice and public policy: The vulnerability of economic advice to the interpretation of politicians

The confidence with which politicians defend their policies is in marked contrast to the qualifications which academic researchers attach to their results. The difference is indicative of a failure of the political market, whereby politicians have an incentive to select policies for electoral and ideological reasons and to minimise any uncertainty associated with policy effectiveness. In this scenario dissension between economists is of value if it alerts individuals to the sensitivity of policy answers to the framework in which they are derived. Moreover, with government failure, public choice analysts are faced with the problem of how best to amend policy advice in order to allow for potential distortion at the hands of politicians.The authors are Senior Lecturers in Economics and Members of the Centre for Fiscal Studies, University of Bath. They wish to acknowledge the very helpful comments of Professors Gordon Tullock, Harry Collins and an anonymous referee. Any errors that might remain are, of course, the sole responsibility of the authors.     

International Migration and the European Union, Trends and Consequences

Member States of the European Union (EU) have undoubtedly changed into de facto countries of immigration. Since the upswing in migration in the late 1980s, net migration for the 15 EU Member States together has not been below 500,000. This article first focuses on trends in international migration (such as migration from former colonies, recruitment of temporary workers, and East-West migration) and special groups of immigrants (such as ethnic Germans, asylum seekers, and clandestine migrants). The second part of the article pays attention to immigrant settlement and migration policies, especially focusing on the European Union (trafficking and smuggling of humans, and the integration of migrants on the labour market). Detailed comparison of international migration flows is seriously hindered by a complexity of different national registration systems, and different countries display differences with regard to type and history of migration, country of origin, size of migration flows and immigrant populations.     

Spectacular Security: Mega-Events and the Security Complex

In Discipline and Punish Foucault famously declares that "our society is one not of spectacle, but of surveillance." Our theoretical aim in this paper is to problematize Foucault's strict demarcation between spectacle and surveillance through an analysis of urban mega-events. In the process, we detail emerging features of contemporary mega-events that shape and are shaped by shifts in the field of security and surveillance more broadly. Three dynamics in particular warrant consideration: the move toward a precautionary logic among security planners, a "semiotic shift" wherein security iconography is integrally bound up with the production of contemporary urban spectacles, and various forms of security and surveillance legacies that circulate beyond the spatial and temporal frame of the event itself. While mega-events support Foucault's assertion of the dispersal of discipline across the social field, they also suggest that this dispersal occurs in concert with, not in spite of, the power of the spectacle in contemporary society.     

The Decline of Bigotry in America

Though prejudice and discrimination exist in America, it has been steadily declining and measurably so. From our very beginnings, there has been a diversity, accretion, succession, and simultaneity of racial, religious, ethnic, and gender victims and victimizers. Fortunately, there has also been a process of meliorism, epitomized by the presidential election of a black American of mixed racial parents—Barack Hussein Obama. Regardless of their group identity, today’s generation of Americans has less victims or victimizers and has more social, political, and economic opportunities than their parents. grandparents, and predecessors had.