The case of the missing victims: Gunshot woundings in the National Crime Survey

National Crime Survey (NCS) data yield an estimate that 171,000 Americans were nonfatally shot in criminal assaults, robberies, and rapes for the period 1973–1979. Comparing this estimate with the number of firearms homicides during this period suggests either that the death rate in gunshot cases is very high (over 1/3) or that the NCS estimate is low. Based on police-generated data appropriate to estimating the true death rate from gunshot wounds, it appears that the NCS estimate is low by a factor of about 3.0 compared with the number of criminal gunshot woundings known to the police. It is common knowledge that survey-based estimates of assault rates tend to be relatively unreliable, a fact that has been attributed to problems with respondents being willing and able to recall threats, fist fights, and other minor assaults. The current result indicates that the estimation problem is not limited to minor assaults. There is reason to think that the underestimate of gunshot woundings is the result of problems with the NCS sample as well as problems with respondent cooperation.     

A re-examination of the MMPI-2 aggressiveness and immaturity indices in law enforcement screening

This study reports an analysis of Bartol's (1991) Immaturity Index and Hargrave and associates' (1988) Aggressiveness Index as a measure of police conduct. The correlations between the supervisory ratings and the Immaturity and Aggressiveness indices were examined for 1020 law enforcement officers. The results showed that Immaturity Index was related to termination for failure to complete training and insubordination. The Aggressiveness Index was related to a termination for failure to complete training and several other problematic police behaviors, but was not found to be specifically linked with acts of aggression. Implications for using these two indices in law enforcement selection are discussed. Authors' Note: Cary Rostow, Ph.D. is president of Matrix, Inc., Baton Rouge, Louisiana, and is in private practice in Baton Rouge. Robert Davis, Ph.D., is executive vice-president and director of science, research, and development for Matrix, Inc., and has a private practice in Baton Rouge. James B. Pinston, Ph.D., is a clinical neuropsychologist within the department of neurology at the Louisiana State University Health Sciences Center and School of Medicine in Shreveport, Louisiana. Dennis R. Combs, Ph.D., is an assistant professor of psychology at the University of Tulsa. Dennis R. Dixon, M.A., is currently a doctoral student at Louisiana State University.     

The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.